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HECS Checklist.....What to Look for to Avoid


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You're not getting what I'm saying. I'm saying the past couple winters we've just been screwed relative to normal. It's been bad luck.

I think its largely we've been screwed relative to those around us the last 4 years. 06-07 thru 09-10 I've had 85% of average snowfall, not good but not that bad. 96-97 thru 99-00 was much worse at 73% of average :angry:

Its gonna take a few events where its a driving rain in the E/SE MA while we're ripping to see its not that bad here. I do average 53" of snow with 79 days of snow cover after all.

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I think its largely we've been screwed relative to those around us the last 4 years. 06-07 thru 09-10 I've had 85% of average snowfall, not good but not that bad. 96-97 thru 99-00 was much worse at 73% of average :angry:

Its gonna take a few events where its a driving rain in the E/SE MA while we're ripping to see its not that bad here. I do average 53" of snow with 79 days of snow cover after all.

Yup... that too. It's been funny watching Fairfield County cash in time after time after time.

And places north of you (still technically in the valley) like Granby and Simsbury average even more than that!

How long do your records go back, BTW?

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Yup... that too. It's been funny watching Fairfield County cash in time after time after time.

And places north of you (still technically in the valley) like Granby and Simsbury average even more than that!

How long do your records go back, BTW?

96-97 to current, snow depth since 99-00.

Most of Simsbury will be same or even a bit less. Only the far west with good elevation will get above that 53". My grandmother used to be in Tarffiville section and several times it was a mix there but upon driving back it was snowing and snow covered here. Further west + a little elevation ftw.

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96-97 to current, snow depth since 99-00.

Most of Simsbury will be same or even a bit less. Only the far west with good elevation will get above that 53". My grandmother used to be in Tarffiville section and several times it was a mix there but upon driving back it was snowing and snow covered here. Further west + a little elevation ftw.

Yeah West Simsbury is in good shape. North Canton too... they really cash in.

How'd you make out in the 02 icestorm?

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  • 2 weeks later...

Looks like the EURO gives me about 1.1" of QPF.

NAM 1.76"

GEM, RGEM and SREFs ~1.5"

GFS and UK are being flushed like a used jimmy.

Final call IMBY: 12-20"+

1.1-1.5" of QPF with ratios likely a hair better than 10:1 due to superior snow growth; banding potential above avg considering optimal positioning of mid level centers, cf placement and timing of most rapid H5 intensification.

Largest event since Feb 2006 is very likely here and I'm pretty confident.

Greater than 20" would not shock me, but only duration precludes me from calling for that.

Lets see how well I apply the lessons learned from the Boxing Day event; all criteria for a HECS discussed in this thread are met, but duration is the sole limiting factor.

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