donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 During moderate or strong La Niñas (having a December and January ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of -1 or below), a near absence of December snowfall provided a strong signal of below to much below normal seasonal snowfall: Boston: December snowfall < 10": 6/7 (86%) cases had < 40" seasonal snowfall; < 10" December snowfall and no measurable November snowfall: 5/5 (100%) cases had < 40" seasonal snowfall New York City: December snowfall < 2.5": 9/10 (90%) cases had < 20" seasonal snowfall During moderate or strong La Niña events, higher December snowfall suggested average to above average seasonal snowfall: Boston: Moderate/Strong La Niña cases (1871-2009): 9" or more December snowfall: - 4/5 (80%) cases had 50" or more seasonal snowfall New York City: Moderate/Strong La Niña cases (1871-2009): 3" or more December snowfall: - 8/9 (89%) cases had 20" or more seasonal snowfall - 5/9 (56%) cases had 30" or more seasonal snowfall -2/2 (100%) cases with 10" or more December snowfall had 30" or more seasonal snowfall Finally, in the historic experience, winters with excessive snowfall have typically produced substantial December snowfall. The recent blizzard has lifted Boston's monthly snowfall to 22.0" and NYC's to 20.1". That much above normal December snowfall provides a strong indication that Winter 2010-11 will be snowy in both cities. Boston: December snowfall of 18" or more: - 10/11 (91%) cases had 40" or more seasonal snowfall (Winter 2003-04 was the single exception) - 8/11 (73%) cases had 50" or more seasonal snowfall - Mean seasonal snowfall: 61.3" - Median seasonal snowfall: 57.3" - 9/11 (82%) cases with January-April snowfall of 20" or more - 6/11 (55%) cases with January-April snowfall of 30" or more - 4/11 (36%) cases with January-April snowfall of 40" or more - Mean January-April snowfall: 37.6" - Median January-April snowfall: 35.9" - January: 7/11 (64%) cases with 10" or more snowfall - February: 6/11 (55%) cases with 10" or more snowfall - March: 5/11 (45%) cases with 10" or more snowfall - January and February: 4/11 (36%) cases with 10" or more snowfall in each month - January and March: 4/11 (36%) cases with 10" or more snowfall in each month - February and March: 2/11 (18%) cases with 10" or more snowfall in each month - January, February and March: 2/11 (18%) cases with 10" or more snowfall in each month For Decembers with 15" or more snowfall in Boston, the figures are similar: -17/19 (89%) cases with 40" or more seasonal snowfall (two exceptions: 2003-04 and 2009-10) -15/19 (79%) cases with 50" or more seasonal snowfall - Mean seasonal snowfall: 59.9" - Median seasonal snowfall: 60.3" - 17/19 (89%) cases with January-April snowfall of 20" or more - 13/19 (68%) cases with January-April snowfall of 30" or more - 9/19 (47%) cases with January-April snowfall of 40" or more - Mean January-April snowfall: 38.9" - Median January-April snowfall: 39.8" - January: 14/19 (74%) cases with 10" or more snowfall - February: 10/19 (53%) cases with 10" or more snowfall - March: 8/19 (42%) cases with 10" or more snowfall - January and February: 7/19 (37%) cases with 10" or more snowfall in each month - January and March: 6/19 (32%) cases with 10" or more snowfall in each month - February and March: 3/19 (16%) cases with 10" or more snowfall in each month - January, February and March: 3/16 (18%) cases with 10" or more snowfall in each month New York City: December snowfall of 18" or more: - 7/7 (100%) cases had 40" or more seasonal snowfall - Mean seasonal snowfall: 51.2" - Median seasonal snowfall: 48.1" - 7/7 (100%) cases with January-April snowfall of 20" or more - 2/7 (29%) cases with January-April snowfall of 30" or more - Mean January-April snowfall: 27.2" - Median January-April snowfall: 26.0" - January: 6/7 (86%) cases with 10" or more snowfall - February: 4/7 (57%) cases with 10" or more snowfall - January and February: 3/7 (43%) cases with 10" or more snowfall in each month Unfortunately, the Washington, DC area missed out on the KU storm, as its track brought the heaviest snows to the east of Washington in becoming the first storm since the February 1899 blizzard to bring a foot or more of snow both to Norfolk and New York City. Conclusion: Both Boston and New York City will likely see above normal snowfall this winter. NYC has a good chance at finishing with 40" or more seasonal snowfall and Boston has a good chance at finishing with 50" or more. Philadelphia, too, has a good chance at finishing with normal or above normal snowfall. Given the January snowfall statistics, there is an implied hint that even as January will very likely be warmer than December, the month as a whole will not amount to being a "blowtorch." Instead, readings might be relatively close to normal (perhaps a degree above or below) in both NYC and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 I just hope that we can get a couple more repeats exactly like the last one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 I just hope that we can get a couple more repeats exactly like the last one... Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 years with at least an 8" snowstorm in December for NYC... this was the 17th snowfall 8" or more for December in NYC...The odds favor more snow after December... year......8"+ snowfall...season snowfall/after December...later heavy snowfalls... 1872........18.0".....................60.3"................39.8"......................6.0" 1886..........8.1".....................32.9"................22.6"......................none 6" or more 1909..........8.0".....................27.2"................17.4"......................10.0" 1912........11.4".....................15.3"..................3.9"......................none 1916........12.7".....................50.7"................36.2"......................6.7" 6.5" 1917..........9.1".....................34.5"................20.1"......................5.9" 1933........11.2".....................52.0"................36.6"......................9.8" 9.3" 7.6" 1945..........8.3".....................31.4"................12.1"......................7.5" 1947........26.4".....................63.2"................33.6"......................5.7" 1948........16.0".....................46.6"................21.3"......................9.4" 1957..........8.0".....................44.7"................36.0"......................7.9" 11.8" 1959........13.7".....................39.2"................22.9"......................14.7" 1960........15.2".....................54.7"................36.1"......................9.9" 17.4" 2000........12.0".....................35.0"................21.6"......................6.0" 2003........14.0".....................42.0"................22.2"......................10.3" 2009........10.9".....................51.4"................39.0"......................10.0" 20.9" 2010........20.0".....................56.1"................36.0"......................9.1" 19.0" 14 of 16 were above seasonal average...1909-10 was almost average but had a 10" storm in January...1912-13 was the only year that was benign after December... 12 of 16 years had a 6" storm after December... 8 of 16 years had a storm 9" or more after December... 13 of 16 years had 20 or more inches of snow after December... 6 of 16 years had over 50" of seasonal snowfall... 9 of 16 years had over 40"..." 1926 had a 7.9" storm and that year ended up with 22.3"... 1995 had a 7.7" storm and that year ended up with 75.6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 What a difference a week makes! Last week it looked like NYC would close out Dec with a below normal snowfall total. Now not only has NYC surpassed it's norml Dec snowfall average, but this storm has vaulted NYC past your previously predicted seasonal snowfall of 14 inches for 2010-2011. Now, DC was very close to getting snow. Doesn't that count for something? If not, can you throw us a bone down here in terms of something to look forward to snow-wise? Always enjoy your informative and well written posts, Don. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 I just hope that we can get a couple more repeats exactly like the last one... I agree. I loved that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 So how much did KNYC receive last storm? This seems to suggest 19.8, but I've also heard 20.0 and 20.6. years with at least an 8" snowstorm in December for NYC... this was the 17th snowfall 8" or more for December in NYC...The odds favor more snow after December... year......8"+ snowfall...season snowfall/after December...later heavy snowfalls... 1872........18.0".....................60.3"................39.8"......................6.0" 1886..........8.1".....................32.9"................22.6"......................none 6" or more 1909..........8.0".....................27.2"................17.4"......................10.0" 1912........11.4".....................15.3"..................3.9"......................none 1916........12.7".....................50.7"................36.2"......................6.7" 6.5" 1917..........9.1".....................34.5"................20.1"......................5.9" 1933........11.2".....................52.0"................36.6"......................9.8" 9.3" 7.6" 1945..........8.3".....................31.4"................12.1"......................7.5" 1947........26.4".....................63.2"................33.6"......................5.7" 1948........16.0".....................46.6"................21.3"......................9.4" 1957..........8.0".....................44.7"................36.0"......................7.9" 11.8" 1959........13.7".....................39.2"................22.9"......................14.7" 1960........15.2".....................54.7"................36.1"......................9.9" 17.4" 2000........12.0".....................35.0"................21.6"......................6.0" 2003........14.0".....................42.0"................22.2"......................10.3" 2009........10.9".....................51.4"................39.0"......................10.0" 20.9" 2010........19.8" 14 of 16 were above seasonal average...1909-10 was almost average but had a 10" storm in January...1912-13 was the only year that was benign after December... 12 of 16 years had a 6" storm after December... 8 of 16 years had a storm 9" or more after December... 13 of 16 years had 20 or more inches of snow after December... 6 of 16 years had over 50" of seasonal snowfall... 9 of 16 years had over 40"..." 1926 had a 7.9" storm and that year ended up with 22.3"... 1995 had a 7.7" storm and that year ended up with 75.6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 What a difference a week makes! Last week it looked like NYC would close out Dec with a below normal snowfall total. Now not only has NYC surpassed it's norml Dec snowfall average, but this storm has vaulted NYC past your previously predicted seasonal snowfall of 14 inches for 2010-2011. Now, DC was very close to getting snow. Doesn't that count for something? If not, can you throw us a bone down here in terms of something to look forward to snow-wise? Always enjoy your informative and well written posts, Don. MDstorm no, because DCA/BWI are very often close to getting snow in NINA winters and end up with nothing of course, we're close in many winters and still miss the big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 So how much did KNYC receive last storm? This seems to suggest 19.8, but I've also heard 20.0 and 20.6. when I looked at the f6 climate data they had 12.0" for 12/26 and 7.8" for 12/27...It was changed to 12.2 for 12/27...I fixed my post also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 when I looked at the f6 climate data they had 12.0" for 12/26 and 7.8" for 12/27...It was changed to 12.2 for 12/27...I fixed my post also... Thanks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 years with at least an 8" snowstorm in December for NYC... this was the 17th snowfall 8" or more for December in NYC...The odds favor more snow after December... year......8"+ snowfall...season snowfall/after December...later heavy snowfalls... 1872........18.0".....................60.3"................39.8"......................6.0" 1886..........8.1".....................32.9"................22.6"......................none 6" or more 1909..........8.0".....................27.2"................17.4"......................10.0" 1912........11.4".....................15.3"..................3.9"......................none 1916........12.7".....................50.7"................36.2"......................6.7" 6.5" 1917..........9.1".....................34.5"................20.1"......................5.9" 1933........11.2".....................52.0"................36.6"......................9.8" 9.3" 7.6" 1945..........8.3".....................31.4"................12.1"......................7.5" 1947........26.4".....................63.2"................33.6"......................5.7" 1948........16.0".....................46.6"................21.3"......................9.4" 1957..........8.0".....................44.7"................36.0"......................7.9" 11.8" 1959........13.7".....................39.2"................22.9"......................14.7" 1960........15.2".....................54.7"................36.1"......................9.9" 17.4" 2000........12.0".....................35.0"................21.6"......................6.0" 2003........14.0".....................42.0"................22.2"......................10.3" 2009........10.9".....................51.4"................39.0"......................10.0" 20.9" 2010........20.0" 14 of 16 were above seasonal average...1909-10 was almost average but had a 10" storm in January...1912-13 was the only year that was benign after December... 12 of 16 years had a 6" storm after December... 8 of 16 years had a storm 9" or more after December... 13 of 16 years had 20 or more inches of snow after December... 6 of 16 years had over 50" of seasonal snowfall... 9 of 16 years had over 40"..." 1926 had a 7.9" storm and that year ended up with 22.3"... 1995 had a 7.7" storm and that year ended up with 75.6"... Here are the DCA snow totals for those same seasons: 1872- No Data 1886- No Data 1909- 36.0 1912- 21.8 1916- 18.8 1917- 36.4 1933- 23.8 1945- 21.6 1947- 23.4 1948- 15.8 1957- 40.4 1959- 24.3 1960- 40.3 2000- 7.4 2003- 12.4 2009- 56.1 All but 2 of those seasons saw above average snow for DCA. Maybe a good sign for us as well? Also notice in some of those years DCA ended with more snow than NYC. By the way, great post Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Here are the DCA snow totals for those same seasons: 1872- No Data 1886- No Data 1909- 36.0 1912- 21.8 1916- 18.8 1917- 36.4 1933- 23.8 1945- 21.6 1947- 23.4 1948- 15.8 1957- 40.4 1959- 24.3 1960- 40.3 2000- 7.4 2003- 12.4 2009- 56.1 All but 2 of those seasons saw above average snow for DCA. Maybe a good sign for us as well? Also notice in some of those years DCA ended with more snow than NYC. Probably a very good sign. Truth is DC didn't miss by much with this past storm. From here on out i think DC location of being farther inland will help them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Where can I find a list of Nina years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesny Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 years with at least an 8" snowstorm in December for NYC... this was the 17th snowfall 8" or more for December in NYC...The odds favor more snow after December... year......8"+ snowfall...season snowfall/after December...later heavy snowfalls... 1872........18.0".....................60.3"................39.8"......................6.0" 1886..........8.1".....................32.9"................22.6"......................none 6" or more 1909..........8.0".....................27.2"................17.4"......................10.0" 1912........11.4".....................15.3"..................3.9"......................none 1916........12.7".....................50.7"................36.2"......................6.7" 6.5" 1917..........9.1".....................34.5"................20.1"......................5.9" 1933........11.2".....................52.0"................36.6"......................9.8" 9.3" 7.6" 1945..........8.3".....................31.4"................12.1"......................7.5" 1947........26.4".....................63.2"................33.6"......................5.7" 1948........16.0".....................46.6"................21.3"......................9.4" 1957..........8.0".....................44.7"................36.0"......................7.9" 11.8" 1959........13.7".....................39.2"................22.9"......................14.7" 1960........15.2".....................54.7"................36.1"......................9.9" 17.4" 2000........12.0".....................35.0"................21.6"......................6.0" 2003........14.0".....................42.0"................22.2"......................10.3" 2009........10.9".....................51.4"................39.0"......................10.0" 20.9" 2010........20.0" 14 of 16 were above seasonal average...1909-10 was almost average but had a 10" storm in January...1912-13 was the only year that was benign after December... 12 of 16 years had a 6" storm after December... 8 of 16 years had a storm 9" or more after December... 13 of 16 years had 20 or more inches of snow after December... 6 of 16 years had over 50" of seasonal snowfall... 9 of 16 years had over 40"..." 1926 had a 7.9" storm and that year ended up with 22.3"... 1995 had a 7.7" storm and that year ended up with 75.6"... It's amazing how the 60's, 70's 80's and 90's are nonexistent ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Where can I find a list of Nina years? http://www.esrl.noaa.../MEI/table.html http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml ftp://www.coaps.fsu....-today.filter-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Down here, the 12.4 inches was a great start to the winter. Just need a couple nick and dime events to reach normal. Just reaching normal in a strong la-nina is quite an accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 @thanks http://www.esrl.noaa.../MEI/table.html http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml ftp://www.coaps.fsu....-today.filter-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 I just hope that we can get a couple more repeats exactly like the last one... WE don't. Signed, The people stuck on the A train for 7 hours, the people waiting at NYC airports since Saturday, the residents of new york city and michael bloomberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 It's amazing how the 60's, 70's 80's and 90's are nonexistent ! 1966 did have the White Christmas storm...7.1" fell...Much more fell after January that winter... 1977-78 managed to deliver a great winter without heavy December snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 1966 did have the White Christmas storm...7.1" fell...Much more fell after January that winter... 1977-78 managed to deliver a great winter without heavy December snowfall... We're still on board with those 1909-10 and 1916-17 analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 If NYC does not finish with an above normal snowfall winter (I think they need 2.8 inches more) it will be about as shocking as last year when they were 0.7 inches shy of the Top 10 snowiest winters after the 2/25 event and did not get 0.1 more the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 If NYC does not finish with an above normal snowfall winter (I think they need 2.8 inches more) it will be about as shocking as last year when they were 0.7 inches shy of the Top 10 snowiest winters after the 2/25 event and did not get 0.1 more the entire winter. Hey, SG here's a fun little exercise -- what's the largest snowfall NYC ever had and yet finished below normal for snowfall? We would have to decide whether to go by the 30 year running mean or overall snowfall record first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Hey, SG here's a fun little exercise -- what's the largest snowfall NYC ever had and yet finished below normal for snowfall? We would have to decide whether to go by the 30 year running mean or overall snowfall record first. I'm thinking it was the 82-83 season, they finished with 27.2 which I'm almost certain was below normal since their average back then was 28 inches but I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 I'm thinking it was the 82-83 season, they finished with 27.2 which I'm almost certain was below normal since their average back then was 28 inches but I may be wrong. I think youre quite right if we use the overall record, but if we go by the 30 year running mean that was above normal. I believe JFK featured above normal snowfall that winter; they got 22" in the big Feb 1983 snowstorm so I think their snowfall exceeded 30 inches that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 11.4" Dec. 24th 1913...15.3" for the season... 10.8" 1995...11.8" for the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hey, SG here's a fun little exercise -- what's the largest snowfall NYC ever had and yet finished below normal for snowfall? We would have to decide whether to go by the 30 year running mean or overall snowfall record first. 1968-9, with the Mayor Lindsay storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hey, SG here's a fun little exercise -- what's the largest snowfall NYC ever had and yet finished below normal for snowfall? We would have to decide whether to go by the 30 year running mean or overall snowfall record first. NYC has only had one season in which a storm dumped a foot or more of snow and the season ended below normal: 1920-21 The biggest storm occurred on February 20, 1921 with a 12.5" snowfall. Winter 1920-21's total snowfall was 18.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What do we have now, about 37"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 What do we have now, about 37"? NYC was at 37.1" on 1/25. It is now at 56.1" (5th snowiest on record). Boston is at 60.3" (22nd snowiest on record). Philadelphia is at 37.8" (14th snowiest on record). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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