Mikehobbyst Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Do any of the mets and followers of the group see the upcoming pattern for the next 7-8 weeks replicating the 93-94 winter?? Is the core of the Arctic cold aimed at the northeat with mulitiple overrunning events like that winter had? Do we rival the severe cAK airmass bleeding of that frigid winter and the ample snow and ice events from the unending overrunning. Please chime in .. Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 I don't think it can get that cold because the Pacific doesn't turn favorable for a while; we still have a +EPO/GoA Low that holds most of the arctic airmasses in Alaska and Siberia. While we'll probably see below average temperatures after the cutter with the -NAO, I doubt it will be as severe as 93-94. I do think we have the chance for a widespread arctic outbreak in the January 15-25 time frame, and that could be somewhat close to what people experienced in 93-94. I agree that overrunning is a threat in this pattern with energy ejecting from a trough in the Southwest and moving into cold air produced by the powerful -NAO/-AO couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 I don't have KU in front of me, but I seem to recall that it mentions that 93-94 featured a positive NAO, which made it a distinct anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 I don't think it can get that cold because the Pacific doesn't turn favorable for a while; we still have a +EPO/GoA Low that holds most of the arctic airmasses in Alaska and Siberia. While we'll probably see below average temperatures after the cutter with the -NAO, I doubt it will be as severe as 93-94. I do think we have the chance for a widespread arctic outbreak in the January 15-25 time frame, and that could be somewhat close to what people experienced in 93-94. I agree that overrunning is a threat in this pattern with energy ejecting from a trough in the Southwest and moving into cold air produced by the powerful -NAO/-AO couplet. Im getting really psyched about this winter; Don seems to be onboard with a probability of 40 inches or more of snow for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Well in the top 10 snowiest Decembers, all had at least 12" the remainder of the winter so many places should easily reach 40" Im getting really psyched about this winter; Don seems to be onboard with a probability of 40 inches or more of snow for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Looking at the pattern in the long range...it seems like just a matter of time before a few adjustments are made by the models and our next storm shows up on the horizon. Once the SE ridge moves far enough off shore their is great potential...and we could get a suprise that only shows up a few days before occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 I don't have KU in front of me, but I seem to recall that it mentions that 93-94 featured a positive NAO, which made it a distinct anomaly. It was a raging +NAO as well, something like +1.50 for the winter...the AO though was negative, it was ultimately however the EPO which did it...I believe it was -2.00 or lower for most of the winter, other than 02-03 I think 93-94 was the only winter where Dec-Feb saw the EPO in below -1 territoriy all 3 months....had the NAO been negative its possible NYC would have had more than the 75 inches of snow in 95-96 because many of those cutters would have likely been suppressed more to the east....when you consider virtually every snow event was an ovverruning deal with a weak low to the south and 1040+ high to the north its amazing that many events happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 It was a raging +NAO as well, something like +1.50 for the winter...the AO though was negative, it was ultimately however the EPO which did it...I believe it was -2.00 or lower for most of the winter, other than 02-03 I think 93-94 was the only winter where Dec-Feb saw the EPO in below -1 territoriy all 3 months....had the NAO been negative its possible NYC would have had more than the 75 inches of snow in 95-96 because many of those cutters would have likely been suppressed more to the east....when you consider virtually every snow event was an ovverruning deal with a weak low to the south and 1040+ high to the north its amazing that many events happened. The +NAO was in a good spot, though, in 93-94; a huge PV sat over Hudson Bay which delivers insanely cold airmasses to the East. That's technically a +NAO but a very favorable type of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 The +NAO was in a good spot, though, in 93-94; a huge PV sat over Hudson Bay which delivers insanely cold airmasses to the East. That's technically a +NAO but a very favorable type of pattern. I believe the PNA was + as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 there is a very good chance NYC ends up with another 50"+ season...Right now 1995-96 and 1966-67 analogs look good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 I'm not sure there are any good analogs after 1920. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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