Colder winters possible due to climate change: study

[joeydel]

http://www.reuters.c...E6AF3C720101116

I guess this means anything is possible...

Didn't someone compile a long list at Eastern showing the 'possible' effects of climate change? This should be added if the list is moved over.

[RIC Airport]

Interesting, but this is actually not new, this is old news.

[Saggy]

Hot summers and cold winters? That doesn't strike me as something to lose much sleep over.

[JBG]

Hot summers and cold winters? That doesn't strike me as something to lose much sleep over.

Standard -NAO -PDO decadal phase fare. Remember the from 1952-4 we broke 100 each summer and 1955 was a scorcher and then we had historically cold and snowy winters intermittently from 1957-8 through 1970-1.

[nzucker]

Standard -NAO -PDO decadal phase fare. Remember the from 1952-4 we broke 100 each summer and 1955 was a scorcher and then we had historically cold and snowy winters intermittently from 1957-8 through 1970-1.

Yup, the pattern is definitely resembling the early-mid 1950s in many way, Jim. I just think we're a little bit further ahead in the NAO blocking phase; for example, it's 1950 with regards to the PDO/ENSO, but 1955 with regards to the NAO/AO. Much of this unusual blocking probably has to do with the low solar activity.

[BethesdaWX]

Yup, the pattern is definitely resembling the early-mid 1950s in many way, Jim. I just think we're a little bit further ahead in the NAO blocking phase; for example, it's 1950 with regards to the PDO/ENSO, but 1955 with regards to the NAO/AO. Much of this unusual blocking probably has to do with the low solar activity.

Couldn't agree more. Solar is definitely the wildcard in the next 40 years, and will probably determine if we cool to Mid 1970's levels, or to levels not seen since 1915 or so.

[nzucker]

Couldn't agree more. Solar is definitely the wildcard in the next 40 years, and will probably determine if we cool to Mid 1970's levels, or to levels not seen since 1915 or so.

I do think that greenhouse gases will have their influence, but I wouldn't rule out cooling to 1970s levels or even early 1900s levels if volcanic activity takes an uptick and we get a major eruption from Katla or Merapi. We're seeing the power of the -PDO with three out of four winters being La Niñas since the Pacific shift in 2007, and I think this ENSO event is likely to be multi-year with the possibility for another strong Niña in 11-12 or 12-13. Solar activity is still below the level of the Dalton Minimum, and it'll be very interesting to track when Cycle 25 begins to see if we get another complete loss of sunspots as we had a year ago or so. We really don't have a good grasp on what threshold level of low solar activity triggers a strong response from galactic cosmic rays, and we also don't have much of an idea of how the coalescence of a -PDO/-ENSO/low solar/high volcanic period will affect global climate. Really hard to say where we are going though one has to be pleased with the prospect for colder winters and higher arctic sea ice given the doomsday talks of a few years past.

La Niña is absolutely tanking too. Given the absurd cold pool currently emerging in Region 3 and Region 3.4, and the forecasts for more intense trade winds in the next week, I'm still not ruling out the potential for a record-breaking event AMSU Channel 5 global temperatures continues to drop due to the influence of the La Niña, and I think it will drop more as convection intensifies in the Indian Ocean, cooling that basin by mid-winter; we should also see a more neutral NAO signal later in the winter which will cool the Atlantic to more normal levels. I predicted that this year would average -.1C on the satellites, but it could be even colder if things go right with the Niña. Just amazing what a full circle we've done since last year in the Pacific with the cold GoA and strong Niña.

[BethesdaWX]

I do think that greenhouse gases will have their influence, but I wouldn't rule out cooling to 1970s levels or even early 1900s levels if volcanic activity takes an uptick and we get a major eruption from Katla or Merapi. We're seeing the power of the -PDO with three out of four winters being La Niñas since the Pacific shift in 2007, and I think this ENSO event is likely to be multi-year with the possibility for another strong Niña in 11-12 or 12-13. Solar activity is still below the level of the Dalton Minimum, and it'll be very interesting to track when Cycle 25 begins to see if we get another complete loss of sunspots as we had a year ago or so. We really don't have a good grasp on what threshold level of low solar activity triggers a strong response from galactic cosmic rays, and we also don't have much of an idea of how the coalescence of a -PDO/-ENSO/low solar/high volcanic period will affect global climate. Really hard to say where we are going though one has to be pleased with the prospect for colder winters and higher arctic sea ice given the doomsday talks of a few years past.

La Niña is absolutely tanking too. Given the absurd cold pool currently emerging in Region 3 and Region 3.4, and the forecasts for more intense trade winds in the next week, I'm still not ruling out the potential for a record-breaking event AMSU Channel 5 global temperatures continues to drop due to the influence of the La Niña, and I think it will drop more as convection intensifies in the Indian Ocean, cooling that basin by mid-winter; we should also see a more neutral NAO signal later in the winter which will cool the Atlantic to more normal levels. I predicted that this year would average -.1C on the satellites, but it could be even colder if things go right with the Niña. Just amazing what a full circle we've done since last year in the Pacific with the cold GoA and strong Niña.

I am most certainly am looking forward to it. I too believe GHG will have an effect, just not the effect that most of us presume they will have.

La Nina looks like its getting ready to head sub -2C? I like the structure, its demeanor is growing better and better

[nzucker]

I am most certainly am looking forward to it. I too believe GHG will have an effect, just not the effect that most of us presume they will have.

La Nina looks like its getting ready to head sub -2C? I like the structure, its demeanor is growing better and better

CPC isn't quite as cold as TAO/Unisys...it has Region 3.4 at -1.6C and Region 3 at -1.7C. Of course that's a weekly average so it encompasses some of the days before the massive cooling began. All of the regions save 1.2 saw a good drop on the weeklies.

[A-L-E-X]

I do think that greenhouse gases will have their influence, but I wouldn't rule out cooling to 1970s levels or even early 1900s levels if volcanic activity takes an uptick and we get a major eruption from Katla or Merapi. We're seeing the power of the -PDO with three out of four winters being La Niñas since the Pacific shift in 2007, and I think this ENSO event is likely to be multi-year with the possibility for another strong Niña in 11-12 or 12-13. Solar activity is still below the level of the Dalton Minimum, and it'll be very interesting to track when Cycle 25 begins to see if we get another complete loss of sunspots as we had a year ago or so. We really don't have a good grasp on what threshold level of low solar activity triggers a strong response from galactic cosmic rays, and we also don't have much of an idea of how the coalescence of a -PDO/-ENSO/low solar/high volcanic period will affect global climate. Really hard to say where we are going though one has to be pleased with the prospect for colder winters and higher arctic sea ice given the doomsday talks of a few years past.

La Niña is absolutely tanking too. Given the absurd cold pool currently emerging in Region 3 and Region 3.4, and the forecasts for more intense trade winds in the next week, I'm still not ruling out the potential for a record-breaking event AMSU Channel 5 global temperatures continues to drop due to the influence of the La Niña, and I think it will drop more as convection intensifies in the Indian Ocean, cooling that basin by mid-winter; we should also see a more neutral NAO signal later in the winter which will cool the Atlantic to more normal levels. I predicted that this year would average -.1C on the satellites, but it could be even colder if things go right with the Niña. Just amazing what a full circle we've done since last year in the Pacific with the cold GoA and strong Niña.

I remember you or someone else said if the La Nina's strength gets into territory it hasnt been before, no telling how it might affect our weather-- as a matter of fact, its sheer strength might overcome the SE ridge and send us into a colder and stormier pattern.

[nzucker]

I remember you or someone else said if the La Nina's strength gets into territory it hasnt been before, no telling how it might affect our weather-- as a matter of fact, its sheer strength might overcome the SE ridge and send us into a colder and stormier pattern.

It'll be hard for this La Niña to beat 73-74, which had a peak TM of -2.1C. It's still possible with all the trade winds coming and continued lack of activity from the MJO but that's a big number for a tri-monthly average. That year still had a SE ridge, unfortunately.

Of course, where the La Niña is depends on what source you use; as mentioned in the thread on the main forums, there's a lot of discrepancy currently between the colder TAO/Unisys data and the warmer NOAA data. Wonder if Hansen is playing around with NOAA these days?

[A-L-E-X]

It'll be hard for this La Niña to beat 73-74, which had a peak TM of -2.1C. It's still possible with all the trade winds coming and continued lack of activity from the MJO but that's a big number for a tri-monthly average. That year still had a SE ridge, unfortunately.

Of course, where the La Niña is depends on what source you use; as mentioned in the thread on the main forums, there's a lot of discrepancy currently between the colder TAO/Unisys data and the warmer NOAA data. Wonder if Hansen is playing around with NOAA these days?

Yeah, honestly, I think the writing is on the wall-- the NW and the WEST are snowy and the se ridge has already reared its ugly head.  NYC is going to have its first freezing low in December and all the months of fall have been above normal-- not good signs for snow and cold here.