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SNE Obs and Disco 12/28-1/7


HoarfrostHubb

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I'm not sure what event it could have been. There were a couple crappy events pre-Xmas 1984. So maybe a few piles survived the torches afterward in NYC (there was a more mundane torch Dec 23-25 before the huge one on the 29th-30th). There was actually a bit of warm air advection snow on the 28th in front of that horrific airmass. Only like an inch or so though.

I'm hopeful the new global regimes of cold state pdo and neg nao will bring us more similar winters of my youth. It sure seems that way the past few years.

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Jan 6, 2007...I remember that day. I hiked Wachusett and the ski lifts were closed. Only time they've ever closed because of lack of snow in the month of January IIRC.

I remember record highs in Vermont in both January 2007 and January 2008. Didn't NYC hit 70F one of those days?

It seems that the days of extreme warmth may be mostly past, however, given the strength of the -AO/-NAO block and its propensity to keep snow cover down to the coastal plain. Since Winter 08-09, the "warm" days around here are mostly in the 50s range, not 70F. We've really had very few warm days this winter here in NYC metro; I believe I've had three high temperatures of 40F or above in the entire month of December, which is remarkable given that average highs for Dobbs Ferry are 47F on the 1st and 40F on XMAS. Since the Thanksgiving cold snap, cold has been the name of the game, and ponds/lakes are completely frozen here in Westchester County. I'm quite surprised at the consistency of the cold given the ENSO state.

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I'm hopeful the new global regimes of cold state pdo and neg nao will bring us more similar winters of my youth. It sure seems that way the past few years.

I'm also hoping the solar minimum can cool global temperatures down. I think there's a good shot at that given we're currently below the levels of solar activity found during the Dalton Minimum (1800-1830 approximately). That era brought some very severe winters to Europe and North America, and I believe we're starting to see signs of the -NAO/-AO that deliver such conditions despite our current state of global warmth. I wouldn't be surprised if the strong -PDO combined with the low solar activity can reduce global temperatures by .2-.3C over the next 20 years. NASA has been constantly moving back the goalposts for the peak of this solar cycle (#24) as we have gone into another long spotless period with very low geomagnetic flux.

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The worst part is it melted what was left of an already dwindling snow pack that barely hung on for Xmas. I remember it even though I was only 3...well I don't remember the torch (thankfully), but I remember the bad snow pack on the ground for Xmas.

:huh:

Dude you must have the best memory in the world... remembering how bad a snow pack was at Christmas when you were 3!?!

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I'm also hoping the solar minimum can cool global temperatures down. I think there's a good shot at that given we're currently below the levels of solar activity found during the Dalton Minimum (1800-1830 approximately). That era brought some very severe winters to Europe and North America, and I believe we're starting to see signs of the -NAO/-AO that deliver such conditions despite our current state of global warmth. I wouldn't be surprised if the strong -PDO combined with the low solar activity can reduce global temperatures by .2-.3C over the next 20 years. NASA has been constantly moving back the goalposts for the peak of this solar cycle (#24) as we have gone into another long spotless period with very low geomagnetic flux.

And this should also result in some rather robust Ninas. We may have to change Nina projections based on solar cycles as the NAO connection changes everything.

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:huh:

Dude you must have the best memory in the world... remembering how bad a snow pack was at Christmas when you were 3!?!

Will is a walking encyclopedia. He was reciting KU events when he came out of the womb. He deserves to be in a leading position at the NWS/HPC instead of these guys who just scream "initialization error" when a HECS is coming...

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Jan 6, 2007...I remember that day. I hiked Wachusett and the ski lifts were closed. Only time they've ever closed because of lack of snow in the month of January IIRC.

I do remember that one... wow was that a depressing time at the ski resort up here. Little did we know that February/March/April would be the best 3 month span in recent history for snow. Record snow on Valentines Day of 2-4 feet, another couple feet on St Patty's Day, 5-6 feet in April (including 2-3 feet on Tax Day)... Mansfield had a nice 8-10 foot snowpack after having literally nothing on the ground going into the second week of January, and ended up with over 400" on the season.

That was the best seasonal turn around ever.

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And this should also result in some rather robust Ninas. We may have to change Nina projections based on solar cycles as the NAO connection changes everything.

I think we'll see some very strong Niñas in the next twenty years or so. CFS already shows this current La Niña to be a multi-year event with a moderation in the spring followed by renewed cooling in the late summer. I wouldn't be surprised if we're talking about a 3-4 year event here.

As you say, we may also have to change our conception of what temperature and snowfall patterns look like in the CONUS during moderate/strong La Niña events. With the -NAO/-AO, we may see La Niñas more like 1916-17 and 1903-04 rather than mundane winters such as 1998-99 and 1988-89. Parts of SE VA already have 20" this season and NYC (Central Park) is over 20" as well, definitely atypical for a strong -ENSO event. I'm thinking plenty more is coming too with the blocking being modeled for the month of January and the stratospheric warming event seemingly in the cards.

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Violently agree..I'll def have some bare azz spots on the lawn as you can see by the pics I posted in the drift thread

Dude just looked at your shots in the snow drift thread... wow! You are definitely going to have a pretty bare yard after all is said and done thanks to the wind. I would've bet you'd probably hold solid snow cover but after seeing those pics you'll be down to snowbanks. yikes, I can see why you're so pissed off about the wind, lol.

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I think we'll see some very strong Niñas in the next twenty years or so. CFS already shows this current La Niña to be a multi-year event with a moderation in the spring followed by renewed cooling in the late summer. I wouldn't be surprised if we're talking about a 3-4 year event here.

As you say, we may also have to change our conception of what temperature and snowfall patterns look like in the CONUS during moderate/strong La Niña events. With the -NAO/-AO, we may see La Niñas more like 1916-17 and 1903-04 rather than mundane winters such as 1998-99 and 1988-89. Parts of SE VA already have 20" this season and NYC (Central Park) is over 20" as well, definitely atypical for a strong -ENSO event. I'm thinking plenty more is coming too with the blocking being modeled for the month of January and the stratospheric warming event seemingly in the cards.

Your ability to modify your thoughts is very admirable. The arguments we had this fall were based on my view of the overpowering AO signal. I also am amazed at the precip amounts in the deep south, they will get soaked this week, NINA Schimna, Euro seasonal PHAIL

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Will is a walking encyclopedia. He was reciting KU events when he came out of the womb. He deserves to be in a leading position at the NWS/HPC instead of these guys who just scream "initialization error" when a HECS is coming...

not to get OT but that was just the epitome of a weenie slap. one met i read on the board said it was their attempt at a "reach" to try and keep continuity....but then it just got sad IMO. they were afraid the model was gonna FLIP BACK and make them look silly . Harvey leonard jumped on it at 6pm that evening.....and the rest is history.

still a very nice snow pack here tonite....temps below freezing and a nice cold nite ahead.

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Dude just looked at your shots in the snow drift thread... wow! You are definitely going to have a pretty bare yard after all is said and done thanks to the wind. I would've bet you'd probably hold solid snow cover but after seeing those pics you'll be down to snowbanks. yikes, I can see why you're so pissed off about the wind, lol.

It's really only 3 areas..One on the part of the front that borders the nieghbors..one right in front of the house under the giant 5 pronged oak disaster..and one spot in the back...It's still mostly all snow..but the bare spots def. ruin things

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It's really only 3 areas..One on the part of the front that borders the nieghbors..one right in front of the house under the giant 5 pronged oak disaster..and one spot in the back...It's still mostly all snow..but the bare spots def. ruin things

Surprised when I got home, driveway did not melt at all, sun angle minimum, hopefully we do not get much rain but that STJ in the GOM has me worried QPF is more than progged in warm sector.

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Surprised when I got home, driveway did not melt at all, sun angle minimum, hopefully we do not get much rain but that STJ in the GOM has me worried QPF is more than progged in warm sector.

so long as it's more than progged on the cold sector as well i will take the trade off...will trade new snow for melted old snow any day of the week. no Q's asked. would prefer no melting but hey this is SNE.

BTW what was the highest total in mass.

Any elevated town in the NW corner of the state get like 2 feet?

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Wachusett was actually fun tonight. We rode the shuttle from Lot 3 and there were only 2 others on the bus with us. The driver warned us to get off quickly due to the huge crowd trying to leave. It was just before 4 and the regular tickets were done. First sellout in a while they said. No lines very sparse crowds for the first couple of runs. My son went from the top for the first time this season. He even went down 10th Mountain so I got him a Red Apple Farm donut at Bullocks (only accessible from 10th tonight).

Snow conditions were top notch. Lots of soft fluff and very little ice. Around 5:30 it was starting to get crowded so we did one more top to bottom before catching a quick empty shuttle back down.

Great night to ski. No wind, perfect upper twenties for temps

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Donnie Baseball has joined the party, Pete give him a Venizon Steak, I will get the beer, Jerry bring the shrimp cocktail to his table

There is a chance that by that time, the coldest air could be on our side of the globe, hence the potential for some severe cold could exist. Farther ahead, I do believe a sustained and potentially strong blocking regime will redevelop at some point in February (possibly latter 1-2 weeks?), but that's subject to change given how far out it is.

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It's really only 3 areas..One on the part of the front that borders the nieghbors..one right in front of the house under the giant 5 pronged oak disaster..and one spot in the back...It's still mostly all snow..but the bare spots def. ruin things

I completely agree with you though.. wind destroys snow. I don't mind a good windy snowstorm when there's already a foot of cement on the ground, but there's just something that irks me about getting a foot of snow and still seeing grass.

I do applaud your candid approach to those photos though....no sugar-coating your snow cover by taking "selective" pictures lol.

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I completely agree with you though.. wind destroys snow. I don't mind a good windy snowstorm when there's already a foot of cement on the ground, but there's just something that irks me about getting a foot of snow and still seeing grass.

I do applaud your candid approach to those photos though....no sugar-coating your snow cover by taking "selective" pictures lol.

The tops of Mountains are always wind blown, My cover is uniform, pretty scenes out here tonight.

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I completely agree with you though.. wind destroys snow. I don't mind a good windy snowstorm when there's already a foot of cement on the ground, but there's just something that irks me about getting a foot of snow and still seeing grass.

I do applaud your candid approach to those photos though....no sugar-coating your snow cover by taking "selective" pictures lol.

There's plenty of deep snowcover and huge snowbanks here..so I'm good. There just happens to be so many slopes in this wind tunnel I live in that any powdery event blows and blows. Last year every single storm the same thing happened. Just give me a 10 inch wet snow bomb .

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The worst part is it melted what was left of an already dwindling snow pack that barely hung on for Xmas. I remember it even though I was only 3...well I don't remember the torch (thankfully), but I remember the bad snow pack on the ground for Xmas.

That was a terrible winter. Anytime you get a day like that in winter, it has to be a bad sign. I can't remember a great winter where we had a day that felt like early summer in December. They seem to suck when they do that....2006, 2001, 1998, 1984, etc.

I'm sure my stats will tell me there are several exceptions (I think 1966 had a horrendous torch in mid Dec but went on to be a blockbuster winter)....but you never feel good about things when you see people playing soccer and baseball on brown grass and sipping lemonade around the holidays.

I'm not 1/10th of the freak you are. I bow in admiration. Tubes thinks you should be running HPC. I agree from a meteorological perspective, but its much better to have your own business.

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