ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This still manages 1"+ from about my lat and southward to DC with a 2" lolli for EWR again. Moral of the story is we have a long way to go. It gives me over an inch and half of QPF. I have a feeling the ensembles will look mighty different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I would take this run....not whining, but I think the EURO is setting the ma up for noose city. Only if people actually buy into it. I think its far enough out that nobody can really take it seriously....especially with the way the Euro has been over phasing storms all this past month....especially in this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I would take this run....not whining, but I think the EURO is setting the ma up for noose city. In this crazy winter, I would think anything can happen, including all of the crazy stuff we were talking about in the main forum euro thread earlier Do you really think the euro is out to lunch on this one and phasing everything too early, or is this possible given the whacko stuff going on in the atmosphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The wide spectrum of solutions is yet another reason to lurk largely cause all the next couple days is going to be purely model watching. a consensus wont be well developed for awhile. At least will give my f5 button a rest. If I had to write an AFD... LATER THIS WEEK... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SNOWSTORM TO EFFECT US BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH WIDE RANGE OF CHANGING SOLUTIONS. P TYPE LOOKS LIKE MAINLY SNOW AT THIS TIME. EURO SHOWING MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PHASED SOLUTION WITH A BOMB SOUTH OF LI WHILE GFS AND OTHERS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR AREAS OF NEW ENGLAND. BOTTOMLINE.. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LATER THIS WEEK, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON AT LEAST AN ADVISORY EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If this run ends up very wrong the d5 H5 score for this run may end up worse than the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In this crazy winter, I would think anything can happen, including all of the crazy stuff we were talking about in the main forum euro thread earlier Do you really think the euro is out to lunch on this one and phasing everything too early, or is this possible given the whacko stuff going on in the atmosphere? It's possible, but I think it's digging the ULL too far south. I think this is a NE deal.....MAYBE NYC\NJ......could be major, maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In this crazy winter, I would think anything can happen, including all of the crazy stuff we were talking about in the main forum euro thread earlier Do you really think the euro is out to lunch on this one and phasing everything too early, or is this possible given the whacko stuff going on in the atmosphere? I think it's entirely possible; the ECM has been steadfast on the vortmax digging more and spawning a potent Miller B in its last couple of runs. I really like the look of a deep polar low dropping into the CONUS due to the massive -NAO; this is actually very similar to how Great Britain gets some of its biggest snowfalls. I'm thinking PHL-BOS is a lock for at least a few inches of snow either this weekend with the Miller B or next week with the Miller A threat with the potential for much. much more if the phasing goes well in this time period. Very exciting storms and plenty of cold air to ensure the coastal plain stays frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Ray's philosophy is a good one-- keep your hopes high but expectations reasonable. As long as you have sustained cold air, you have a chance-- and even if it isnt big, it should stick around for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think it's entirely possible; the ECM has been steadfast on the vortmax digging more and spawning a potent Miller B in its last couple of runs. I really like the look of a deep polar low dropping into the CONUS due to the massive -NAO; this is actually very similar to how Great Britain gets some of its biggest snowfalls. I'm thinking PHL-BOS is a lock for at least a few inches of snow either this weekend with the Miller B or next week with the Miller A threat with the potential for much. much more if the phasing goes well in this time period. Very exciting storms and plenty of cold air to ensure the coastal plain stays frozen. Yeah, I was just thinking about GB and the funny thing was when I was there (back in the early 90s) they were all talking about how hard it was to get snow there. Now look whats going on lol. It's looking somewhat like the last storm, hopefully this time we get to share the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It's possible, but I think it's digging the ULL too far south. I think this is a NE deal.....MAYBE NYC\NJ......could be major, maybe not. 99.9% chance this is correct. That would be absolutely sweet for us if it verified because it keeps us on the northern side of the CCB/inflow on this run...great ULL track for us (putting aside the qpf fetish for a sec)...but its almost certainly too much this run. The good thing about this run though is it completely flew in the face of the more northward trend from other guidance at 00z. So it keeps all solutions on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Im feeling a GOM late bomb buries Maine and deforms ray ne ma se nh and extreme s me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think the 12z EURO run will be relatively big considering the lead time because I really want to see if it continues the trend of digging this farther s, or it abates; if you think back to the last event, it did dig too far to the south at one point and subsequently corrected northward some. Tmw's run is HUGE for the ma because they may have a shot if it holds and especially if the trend continues.....they need wiggle room that they currently do not have because it's highly likely that the trend for the ULL to dig farther s will reverse at some point. GUN TO HEAD: we see this play out similar to last week because that blocking is going to want to shove that ULL down, but I would not expect that yet. Threat is much larger from NYC points ne.....relatively meager points sw. Truth lies btwn GFS and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If this run ends up very wrong the d5 H5 score for this run may end up worse than the NOGAPS. Just like the last time - remarkable if right and if wrong. Interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Real lack of high pressure with this, too.....worse than last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Real lack of high pressure with this, too.....worse than last event. Eh, we'd be fine...ULL doesn't get tucked in close enough to dry us out...it keeps us in a pretty sweet spot. Not that details are important anyway. The lack of high will obviously mean we could get a wet snow scenario again near the coast...and we'd probably actually have the CF further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Eh, we'd be fine...ULL doesn't get tucked in close enough to dry us out...it keeps us in a pretty sweet spot. Not that details are important anyway. The lack of high will obviously mean we could get a wet snow scenario again near the coast...and we'd probably actually have the CF further west. Yea, this event would have precip type issues perhaps to Boston and a cf near me......bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 More snow D9 from the next closed off/occluded low south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yea, this event would have precip type issues perhaps to Boston and a cf near me......bring it. Reality will likely be something a hell of a lot more tame....with less defined thermal boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 More snow D9 from the next closed off/occluded low south of us. CCB rocking E MA /RI at 228h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Reality will likely be something a hell of a lot more tame....with less defined thermal boundaries. We can afford a sizeable jump to the N of the ULL from this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Eh, we'd be fine...ULL doesn't get tucked in close enough to dry us out...it keeps us in a pretty sweet spot. Not that details are important anyway. The lack of high will obviously mean we could get a wet snow scenario again near the coast...and we'd probably actually have the CF further west. What is CF? I've been wondering for a while...does it have something to do with Coriolis Force? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What is CF? I've been wondering for a while...does it have something to do with Coriolis Force? Coastal Front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What is CF? I've been wondering for a while...does it have something to do with Coriolis Force? coastal front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 EURO is gonna be major, I think.....differences overtly apparent at hr 108 My H5 learning curve ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well that was an exciting run, but still have to remain tempered...the likely scenario is something considerably more tame than that.Not sure I can stay up for the Euro ensembles, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well that was an exciting run, but still have to remain tempered...the likely scenario is something considerably more tame than that.Not sure I can stay up for the Euro ensembles, we'll see. do you get them early will, or do you wait for them to pop on allan's site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 do you get them early will, or do you wait for them to pop on allan's site? I get them a bit after 3. I don't know what time they come out on Allan's site...but I know its later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I get them a bit after 3. I don't know what time they come out on Allan's site...but I know its later. its around 330.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not surprisingly, the Euro ensembles are considerably more tame than the OP run....it pretty much looks like a lot of ensemble means we've seen recently. Redeveloping S of LI or E of NJ and then moving near the benchmark...though it really does strengthen the low quickly, so it looks a heck of a lot better than the GFS ensembles in terms of larger event potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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