Kbosch Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS ensmebles looks similar to 18z...maybe slightly worse. Still a ton of a spread to the west. The trend on the GFS/GEFS/GGEM though so far isn't good. They all give 3-5" type snows, but they certainly don't like the idea of a larger event. But at 5 days out, a lot of stuff can happen. It seems almost asinine that we've been tracking just about every threat this season from 7/8 days out. By the time you are 108 hours out, we get the sense we should have an established trend or consensus forming when that is not what happens in reality. As we thought. And the second part, as I just said. I think you want something close to reality by 72 hours this year, and you nail down the track and amounts at about 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Ukie looks like the further north solutions which would deliver advisory snow...maybe low end warning since it develops stuff a bit sooner. I think the guidance at 00z has clearly seen (or missed) something that wants to have this be north. Whether that is reality or not will obviously be determined on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Apparently the Euro didn't get the memo on not digging the vortex....at least through 102 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think the EURO looks better than the GFS, but it's early (hr 102).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 EURO is gonna be major, I think.....differences overtly apparent at hr 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think the EURO looks better than the GFS, but it's early (hr 102).... 114hr the H5 low is into WV...lol, a little bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Man this is far south as I've seen the Euro dig on any run the last several days. This might end up closed off down in VA or MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 EURO is gonna be major, I think.....differences overtly apparent at hr 108 This proves that the potential exists for something more significant....that's all we can really take from these 00z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 HOLY CRAP....regardless of whether we get buried at the surface, this run =win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 lol at DC being in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Man this is far south as I've seen the Euro dig on any run the last several days. This might end up closed off down in VA or MD. Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 H5 is gonna catch this s of li.....I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Congrats NJ. lol at the 972 E of the Delmarva...seriously wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hey Will, does hr 132 look familiar lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It actually closes off so far south that the Mid-Atlantic gets the best hit on this run, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Congrats NJ. lol at the 972 E of the Delmarva...seriously wtf? This is probably a burp as was the GFS, but on the opposite end of the spectrum; truth lies in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 132 sub 972 100-150 miles east of acy ...MURDERED, ABSOLUTELY MURDERED HR 132 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It actually closes off so far south that the Mid-Atlantic gets the best hit on this run, lol. This is probably a burp as was the GFS, but on the opposite end of the spectrum; truth lies in the middle. I like where we sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I like where we sit. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well, I smell another "storm alert mode".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It actually closes off so far south that the Mid-Atlantic gets the best hit on this run, lol. It's still trying to clobber us 144hr+ though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It's still trying to clobber us 144hr+ though. Take a EURO and "the rest of the world" consensus and we are rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well, I smell another "storm alert mode".... I'd wait 48 hours before getting too excited. Let's see how this trends. Obviously all over the place right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah it goes nuts over SNE at 138 and 144. This would be another KU...HECS for someone. Highly unlikely this verifies though, lol. Man what a storm it would be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 HOLY CRAP....regardless of whether we get buried at the surface, this run =win. This is an amazing run for all of us-- I hope this one verifies. With the type of anomalous weather we've seen this winter, I wouldnt be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Clearly the ECM's bias of phasing everything too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well, I smell another "storm alert mode".... Please no more radio shows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This still manages 1"+ from about my lat and southward to DC with a 2" lolli for EWR again. Moral of the story is we have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This is an amazing run for all of us-- I hope this one verifies. With the type of anomalous weather we've seen this winter, I wouldnt be surprised. I would take this run....not whining, but I think the EURO is setting the ma up for noose city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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