NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This depiction looks silly. A 988mb LP just north of the NH and VT / Canada borders? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It may well rally back some ..especially for BOS north.... Ryan, I'd hold off on getting too pessimistic....I think this one comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Ryan, I'd hold off on getting too pessimistic....I think this one comes back. Well I always thought the odds of this one being "big" were sort of low. I haven't liked the evolution recently. It could still pan out but I'm definitely not excited. edit: especially for my area... it's easier for KGAY to cash in on these than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That is a good approach to take. The differences in a lot of the guidance has actually increased in the past model run or two. Funny watching the ensembles start showing more and more uncertainty over the past few runs. I don't like how far north the GFS/Euro are keeping that closed low recently. That definitely gives me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This depiction looks silly. A 988mb LP just north of the NH and VT / Canada borders? It's because the H5 low and thus all of the vorticity is so far to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Someone downwind of Lake Ontario will get a lot of LES with that upper pattern through 144 hours and upslope into VT etc. Well I always thought the odds of this one being "big" were sort of low. I haven't liked the evolution recently. It could still pan out but I'm definitely not excited. edit: especially for my area... it's easier for KGAY to cash in on these than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well I always thought the odds of this one being "big" were sort of low. I haven't liked the evolution recently. It could still pan out but I'm definitely not excited. edit: especially for my area... it's easier for KGAY to cash in on these than me. I agree, there.....not talking big....when I say "come back", I mean as a mod event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I agree, there.....not talking big....when I say "come back", I mean as a mod event. Oh yeah I can def see that. I still think that a 1-3 or 2-4 kinda deal is the most likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Oh yeah I can def see that. I still think that a 1-3 or 2-4 kinda deal is the most likely outcome. Agreed....but I'd be shocked if the odds of a mod event for at least the NE quadrant of sne do not rally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL this GFS run congrats Canada....even screws ME. This run is a fluke.....ULL is not going that far N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Oh yeah I can def see that. I still think that a 1-3 or 2-4 kinda deal is the most likely outcome. Id be happy with that and then look forward to the next one. We need something on the ground when the cold comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I am cunfused again, Ryan started GFS analysis in the disco banter thread the pattern ahead thread is dead, Oh well, 3-6 is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I am cunfused again, Ryan started GFS analysis in the disco banter thread the pattern ahead thread is dead, Oh well, 3-6 is fine with me. This is a discussion thread too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Agreed....but I'd be shocked if the odds of a mod event for at least the NE quadrant of sne do not rally. Yeah I definitely think that could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 33.0\32 Torch vanquished and still about 4" of snow left out at the KGAY wx station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Maybe it'll just end up a light-mod event, but we're still 4+ days out and the 12z EC was a big hit. No need to jump ship yet, but I agree with Ryan that we don't want that H5 low trending anymore north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Maybe it'll just end up a light-mod event, but we're still 4+ days out and the 12z EC was a big hit. No need to jump ship yet, but I agree with Ryan that we don't want that H5 low trending anymore north. Yea, the 12z EURO even gave me 20"+.....just doesn't feel like it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Maybe it'll just end up a light-mod event, but we're still 4+ days out and the 12z EC was a big hit. No need to jump ship yet, but I agree with Ryan that we don't want that H5 low trending anymore north. And you and Ray are definitely more in the game than me or Kevin. The Euro and GFS had some nice hits but a day 4 or 5 inverted trough/norlun solution showing up on some op runs will rarely excited me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Every thing seems to be pointing toward a major warm up, but these things are almost irrelevant right now. Truly a one of a kind Winter. My guess is the -NAO continues. Why wouldn't it? The last 2 months, 6 months, one year, 2 years have had a lower NAO/AO than all previous periods on record. coupled with a Pacific ridge, late January/February could produce a great pattern in New England but I don't know about down here. A.......W.......F........T! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Brutal torch looking at that BU web cam Will posted... Would have really been bad if you got into the high winds, DP and fog the MW got. Easier to except when you know there is a good chance there will be a s-pack back by this time next weekend.. Happy New Year to all you funny talking, (Ray) smug and superior cliquestahs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This is a discussion thread too lol Yea just me confused, more I look at the GFS the more I see possibilities for a mod storm over an extended period with 6. Maxes, not bad, gonna be a last two days job, feel it, will not fall for anything positive or negative until 12 Z Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GGEM looks pretty similar to the GFS...quick hitting advisory event as the main track of the vortmax is a bit too far north for anything more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GGEM looks pretty similar to the GFS...quick hitting advisory event as the main track of the vortmax is a bit too far north for anything more than that. Blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Blows. I'll be perfectly happy with a 3-5" event. It would be nice to have more, but I can think of a lot worse solutions. NOGAPS insists on giving us a decent sized warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I would take 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Kind of gusty outside tonight, hadn't really paid much attention to the weather the past several days and didn't realize it was getting colder and windier for tomorrow until I just watched the news. Luckily I only have to walk to the bank tomorrow which is right down the street...no MP3 player though, I broke it Friday night and when I called radio shack to send me a new one b/c I had insurance on it, I told them I dropped it and the insurance doesn't cover accidental damage so I screwed myself . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yes confirmed I think as European Starlings. I looked at their pic and description via google. Figures, ugh. Awful birds. Maybe it'll just end up a light-mod event, but we're still 4+ days out and the 12z EC was a big hit. No need to jump ship yet, but I agree with Ryan that we don't want that H5 low trending anymore north. Yeap, 4+ days is a lot this winter. Earlier today we were talking about all of NE getting in on the action so a bad shift for the 00zs is to be expected/not doom. If we learned anything it's that even the trends can change getting close to an event now, let alone individual runs. I'm guessing the ensembles still have a big spread, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I would take 3-5 feet Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS ensmebles looks similar to 18z...maybe slightly worse. Still a ton of a spread to the west. The trend on the GFS/GEFS/GGEM though so far isn't good. They all give 3-5" type snows, but they certainly don't like the idea of a larger event. But at 5 days out, a lot of stuff can happen. It seems almost asinine that we've been tracking just about every threat this season from 7/8 days out. By the time you are 108 hours out, we get the sense we should have an established trend or consensus forming when that is not what happens in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 At this point I'll just take any snow that mother nature throws my way, if it's 3'', 7'', 12'', 30''...I'll take anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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