ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Every met(except you) on the board is saying it's likely SNE has accumulating snow and at least advisory snow..and you're mentoning snow flurries. I mean get with it Its 6 days away. There is no reason to expose yourself to looking foolish by saying a massive snow is coming at this juncture...you can always build up to it over the next 48 hours and still give people decent lead time....but its harder to hype it up and then back off and it looks worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 It'll be snowing here by 8-9:00 This I agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am? lol What happened to the 1-3 or 2-4 on Tuesday, btw? Yeah I can already envision the 6:00 cast tonight. Ryan>> there's a chance of some light snow or flurries Friday , but it also could completely miss us"<< when nothing points to anything like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 It'll be snowing here by 8-9:00 I'll be surprised if anyone gets more than flakes or a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah I can already envision the 6:00 cast tonight. Ryan>> there's a chance of some light snow or flurries Friday , but it also could completely miss us"<< when nothing points to anything like that Yesterday I said we're watching the potential for a storm Friday into Saturday... could be some snow with an offshore storm... but there's plenty of time to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Its 6 days away. There is no reason to expose yourself to looking foolish by saying a massive snow is coming at this juncture...you can always build up to it over the next 48 hours and still give people decent lead time....but its harder to hype it up and then back off and it looks worse. I agree..and I think I've been pretty even keeled with this..and have said 3-6 or 4-8 is reasonable right now. I don't see anything less than 3-6 happening and certainly would at least have snow in the forecast as opposed to flurries or snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'll be surprised if anyone gets more than flakes or a dusting. Check obs, radar, and temps aloft..and then prepare to be shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 1-2 inches seems a good bet for hilly terrain from CT up thru ORH and maybe as far east 495.. Very disappointing long term from BOX..all models showing accumulating snow Friday and they go with light snow showers? Man do we miss Ekster and Walt I doubt either would hit harder than this for a d5 threat... AS THE POLAR JET STREAM REMAINS PROMINENT. THIS WOULD FAVOR PERHAPS A COLD FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL NORLUN/INVERTED TROUGH SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY WHICH COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS STILL THE 12Z ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS WHICH FAVOR EARLIER PHASING WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN LATER FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I agree..and I think I've been pretty even keeled with this..and have said 3-6 or 4-8 is reasonable right now. I don't see anything less than 3-6 happening and certainly would at least have snow in the forecast as opposed to flurries or snow showers lol you're outrageous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Check obs, radar, and temps aloft Already did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'll be surprised if anyone gets more than flakes or a dusting. Concur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I agree..and I think I've been pretty even keeled with this..and have said 3-6 or 4-8 is reasonable right now. I don't see anything less than 3-6 happening and certainly would at least have snow in the forecast as opposed to flurries or snow showers Well that's where we differ. It could easily just end up being ULL snow showers. I'm feeling fairly confident that its more than that, but at this time range, that maybe means 50/50 or slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 37/28, Colder air and lower dews just seeping in, no big CAA pushed winds. Steady drop. Sure would be nice to see a little surprise qp thrown in. Indeed it would be. Alas, I think the best we can hope for is a lost flake--if that. Meanwhile, this cold better get into gear to get to Kevin in time. Looks like a slow advance. 37.5/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Already did. Look closer..maybe put on reading glasses if you need them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 And Messenger is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looks like Ryan and me vs Ginx tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Look closer..maybe put on reading glasses if you need them Take off your rose colored ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think the most likely outcome this weekend is an advisory level event.....maybe a 1-3, 2-4 inverted deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Its 6 days away. There is no reason to expose yourself to looking foolish by saying a massive snow is coming at this juncture...you can always build up to it over the next 48 hours and still give people decent lead time....but its harder to hype it up and then back off and it looks worse. I would actually tune in every night to a news station that featured Kevin as an on air Met. How great would that be! Flurries=WWA, 1-3"= WSW, 3-6"= Blizzard warning..etc. The ratings would be even higher if on Friday evenings they had a Blizz hate mail segment to re-cap the weeks busts. "You S.O.B. I cancelled my trip to Cancun because you said the east coast was about to be crippled by a storm of biblical proportions. I got flurries!!". Then Kev would have to spin out reasons things went wrong. Yup, that would be don't miss TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think the most likely outcome this weekend is an advisory level event.....maybe a 1-3, 2-4 inverted deal. Yeah I agree... if I had to pick a most likely scenario this would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Troubling bulge westward into NWNJ of 850 and 925temps, total meh right now. That's the bulge that's going to nudge snow into GC tonight. j/k 37.2/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think the most likely outcome this weekend is an advisory level event.....maybe a 1-3, 2-4 inverted deal. Roll with it. If more that that happens, it's a win-win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Look closer..maybe put on reading glasses if you need them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think the most likely outcome this weekend is an advisory level event.....maybe a 1-3, 2-4 inverted deal. I'm favoring a warning level event. Lots of guidance supports that weenie call at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I would actually tune in every night to a news station that featured Kevin as an on air Met. How great would that be! Flurries=WWA, 1-3"= WSW, 3-6"= Blizzard warning..etc. The ratings would be even higher if on Friday evenings they had a Blizz hate mail segment to re-cap the weeks busts. "You S.O.B. I cancelled my trip to Cancun because you said the east coast was about to be crippled by a storm of biblical proportions. I got flurries!!". Then Kev would have to spin out reasons things went wrong. Yup, that would be don't miss TV. All i would need would be one on air weather telecast. The girls would love me, and I'd have everyone so fired up and excited that the ratings for the station would off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Roll with it. If more that that happens, it's a win-win. It's probably going to phase too late and we'll just deal with the ULL rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 So you're showing how it will start as rain..we already know that. What does that map have to do with later this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 It's probably going to phase too late and we'll just deal with the ULL rolling through. I'm just getting up to speed on the models and nothing looks great at this time. Plenty of time to trend more favorable but I certainly would not be gun-ho for anything major at this time. I'd certainly take the 12z GFS/Euro right now but we're still 3 days away from any consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 35.7F here .. if I could get any precip here I feel good about it being frozen, but I think that will be a problem - though the 18z GFS is telling me otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm just getting up to speed on the models and nothing looks great at this time. Plenty of time to trend more favorable but I certainly would not be gun-ho for anything major at this time. I'd certainly take the 12z GFS/Euro right now but we're still 3 days away from any consensus. I'd take the EURO.....GFS is of the nuisance variety......rather keep my car clean. I know most disagree, Kev and that's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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