CT Rain Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Radar looks great upstream..we'll start as rain and flip to moderate snow for a few hrs. If Messenger was here he'd be naked to the RUC stroking and smoking Yeah radar does look decent. Probably will get icy with rain to snow to below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Waiting for temps to fall on the mesonet site is like watching paint dry. What a slow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Radar looks great upstream..we'll start as rain and flip to moderate snow for a few hrs. If Messenger was here he'd be naked to the RUC stroking and smoking You have a shot a a little it looks like. looks like you end up on the far western edge of that precip. Good place to be. Temps continue dropping steadily here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Waiting for temps to fall on the mesonet site is like watching paint dry. What a slow fall. Checkout the dewpoint fall on MPM's mesonet site (Shelburne Falls) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 still a chance even for you! From kalb STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME CONVECTION OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA SIGNALING DECENT UPPER DYNAMICS AND FORCING...SO EVEN THOUGH GOING CHANCES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MOST OF ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST...CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND EXITS. You have a shot a a little it looks like. looks like you end up on the far western edge of that precip. Good place to be. Temps continue dropping steadily here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 35/28, Peru closing in on 32. Not a breath of wind, seems eerily calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Downstream radar does look good, but I'm still worried about BL temps and sticking potential. Is the cold air going to make it here in time to change us over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 41.3\41 4" of snow left. (3.5-6.5" range) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Downstream radar does look good, but I'm still worried about BL temps and sticking potential. Is the cold air going to make it here in time to change us over? Don't even concern yourself with this on the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Don't even concern yourself with this on the cp. I wouldn't consider myself on the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I wouldn't consider myself on the CP. Yes you are... you're essentially the nw burbs of Lowell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yes you are... you're essentially the nw burbs of Lowell God no...Tyngsborough is the NW burb of Lowell. We have our own burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 God no...Tyngsborough is the NW burb of Lowell. We have our own burbs. I'd rather be in Tyngsborough, than where you are......the Merrimack valley essentially renders you an extension of the cp; you disagree, very well. Let me know how you make out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'd rather be in Tyngsborough, than where you are......the Merrimack valley essentially renders you an extension of the cp; you disagree, very well. Let 's make out tonight. Does he get down like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Does he get down like that? You know, I was thinking about editing that too, but I decided against it. Too easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 You have a shot a a little it looks like. looks like you end up on the far western edge of that precip. Good place to be. Temps continue dropping steadily here. 1-2 inches seems a good bet for hilly terrain from CT up thru ORH and maybe as far east 495.. Very disappointing long term from BOX..all models showing accumulating snow Friday and they go with light snow showers? Man do we miss Ekster and Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 You know, I was thinking about hitn' that too, but I decided against it. Too easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah radar does look decent. Probably will get icy with rain to snow to below freezing. Even some lightning strikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 1-2 inches seems a good bet for hilly terrain from CT up thru ORH and maybe as far east 495.. Very disappointing long term from BOX..all models showing accumulating snow Friday and they go with light snow showers? Man do we miss Ekster and Walt I agree, but think it's confined to ORH co points west. I agree with BOX's long term approach.....not sure why they would go with anything more than a mention of snow showers, at this point. It's a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I agree, but think it's confined to ORH co points west. I agree with BOX's long term approach.....not sure why they would go with anything more than a mention of snow showers, at this point, There isn't a model out there that gives anyone in SNE just snow showers..it's not an accurate model discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 There isn't a model out there that gives anyone in SNE just snow showers..it's not an accurate model discussion So let me get this straight, you want to follow the OP models, verbatim at this lead time.....after what just happened at 48 hrs with respect to this last event.....great. The OPs are nothing more than another ensemble right now, like Will said.....the safe approach is to build up from snshrs, as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 1-2 inches seems a good bet for hilly terrain from CT up thru ORH and maybe as far east 495.. Very disappointing long term from BOX..all models showing accumulating snow Friday and they go with light snow showers? Man do we miss Ekster and Walt Well they're not going to bang the gong yet. I've been enjoying ALB's discussions lately. They seem detailed and well structured. This area really is in no-man's land between the two offices. Andy does very well with the Berks so I try to follow his forecasts around the times of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Even some lightning strikes Troubling bulge westward into NWNJ of 850 and 925temps, total meh right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 There isn't a model out there that gives anyone in SNE just snow showers..it's not an accurate model discussion This is probably the most accurate depiction of the 12z model runs I've read. The weenieism on this board (well, from you) is a little over the top today. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT SERIES OF INTENSE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 500 DM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS NEAR GREENLAND. MEANWHILE PACIFIC AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ENERGY WILL BE TRACKING QUICKLY EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING A MORE PROGRESSIVE/SUPPRESSED SCENARIO WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM PHASING OCCURRING LATER...AS THE POLAR JET STREAM REMAINS PROMINENT. THIS WOULD FAVOR PERHAPS A COLD FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL NORLUN/INVERTED TROUGH SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY WHICH COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS STILL THE 12Z ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS WHICH FAVOR EARLIER PHASING WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN COLDER AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 1-2 inches seems a good bet for hilly terrain from CT up thru ORH and maybe as far east 495.. Very disappointing long term from BOX..all models showing accumulating snow Friday and they go with light snow showers? Man do we miss Ekster and Walt GYX says SNOW. None of this namby pamby snow shower business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 still a chance even for you! From kalb STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME CONVECTION OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA SIGNALING DECENT UPPER DYNAMICS AND FORCING...SO EVEN THOUGH GOING CHANCES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MOST OF ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST...CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND EXITS. Radar would need to start lighting up a little bit more and a bit farther SW but anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 This is probably the most accurate depiction of the 12z model runs I've read. The weenieism on this board (well, from you) is a little over the top today. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT SERIES OF INTENSE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 500 DM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS NEAR GREENLAND. MEANWHILE PACIFIC AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ENERGY WILL BE TRACKING QUICKLY EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING A MORE PROGRESSIVE/SUPPRESSED SCENARIO WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM PHASING OCCURRING LATER...AS THE POLAR JET STREAM REMAINS PROMINENT. THIS WOULD FAVOR PERHAPS A COLD FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL NORLUN/INVERTED TROUGH SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY WHICH COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS STILL THE 12Z ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS WHICH FAVOR EARLIER PHASING WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN COLDER AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. Every met(except you) on the board is saying it's likely SNE has accumulating snow and at least advisory snow..and you're mentoning snow flurries. I mean get with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Every met(except you) on the board is saying it's likely SNE has accumulating snow and at least advisory snow..and you're mentoning snow flurries. I mean get with it I am? lol What happened to the 1-3 or 2-4 on Tuesday, btw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Troubling bulge westward into NWNJ of 850 and 925temps, total meh right now. It'll be snowing here by 8-9:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Every met(except you) on the board is saying it's likely SNE has accumulating snow and at least advisory snow..and you're mentoning snow flurries. I mean get with it And did you even read the AFD? It's a pretty fair and good assesment of what's going on. Relying on a big snowstorm (or even likely POPs) from a 120 hour norlun/inverted trough scenario on an op model is pretty dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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