Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Better probs 60/40. Lets see SPC goes with a 10% hatched area in the next run. better juice down there and looks like they will remain discrete for awhile at the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 16 so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 16 so far.. Sigghh, my target area is lit up there. Oh well, they were mostly rainwrapped, and very brief, so it would have been luck to see one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 16 so far.. alot of those out of central mo will alos be tornadoes SPG classified them as wind damage for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 alot of those out of central mo will alos be tornadoes SPG classified them as wind damage for now SGF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 warning popping fast in LA BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 151 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL RAPIDES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES...ALEXANDRIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...BOYCE... * UNTIL 215 PM CST * AT 149 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GARDNER... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ALEXANDRIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BY 200 PM CST... TIMBER TRAILS AND TIOGA BY 210 PM CST... BALL BY 215 PM CST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 better juice down there and looks like they will remain discrete for awhile at the least Some dewpoints are as high as 68 degrees and cape as high as 2000J/KG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 dry line has stalled in eastern MO clearing out again in western IL MLI just jumped in the warm sector too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 still only 5% probs from SPC..I'm rather preplexed DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ..LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST TO MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST EVOLUTION OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES/FORCING REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE 20Z OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK WITH WRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK /WRN AR TO WRN IL/ REMOVED DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DECIDEDLY WLY COMPONENT OF LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS ADVECTING COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS/GREATER STABILITY INTO THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...AREAS EXTENDING FROM SRN AL TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE SLIGHT RISK. THIS INCLUSION IS FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES AS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS UNDERGOES DESTABILIZATION UNTIL EARLY-MID EVENING OVER LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH SRN EXTENT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SRH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER...WILL SUPPORT AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ..PETERS.. 12/31/2010 PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 1022 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 still only 5% probs from SPC..I'm rather preplexed DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ..LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST TO MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST EVOLUTION OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES/FORCING REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE 20Z OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK WITH WRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK /WRN AR TO WRN IL/ REMOVED DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DECIDEDLY WLY COMPONENT OF LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS ADVECTING COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS/GREATER STABILITY INTO THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...AREAS EXTENDING FROM SRN AL TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE SLIGHT RISK. THIS INCLUSION IS FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES AS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS UNDERGOES DESTABILIZATION UNTIL EARLY-MID EVENING OVER LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH SRN EXTENT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SRH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER...WILL SUPPORT AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ..PETERS.. 12/31/2010 PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 1022 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010/ There must be some reason behind it. It seems almost like January 7, 2008 but I think during the last run they put up a 10% hatched area for strong tornadoes and put up a PDS tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 0134 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 W ELLSINORE 36.93N 90.85W 12/31/2010 CARTER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS OF A SAW MILL DESTROYED, A ROOF BLOWN OFF OF A HOME, AND POWER LINES DOWN. SHERIFF DEPUTY SAYS HE DID RECEIVE REPORTS OF A TORNADO...BUT NOT YET CONFIRMED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I guess im not very observant, but someone pointed it out to me on FB. The last 2 photos i posted are NOT from today. Look at the leaves on the tree...Sad people would send that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Where was this at? Not sure, but clearly NOT in Illinois, or in December for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 almost to bloomfeild mo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Not sure, but clearly NOT in Illinois, or in December for that matter. Australia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 good area of clearing getting going in western IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I guess im not very observant, but someone pointed it out to me on FB. The last 2 photos i posted are NOT from today. Look at the leaves on the tree...Sad people would send that in. Yeah definite fake there, meaning when the image was taken not the image itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Sigghh, my target area is lit up there. Oh well, they were mostly rainwrapped, and very brief, so it would have been luck to see one. some of the people who did see them are dead. this is pretty freaking epic here. Subdivisions have been flattened. might not be huge Twisters but have to be F2-F3 possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I can't believe SPC hasn't raised the stakes any. I am sorry but it makes no sense to me either. Some of these are obviously longer track and strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 some of the people who did see them are dead. this is pretty freaking epic here. Subdivisions have been flattened. might not be huge Twisters but have to be F2-F3 possibly. That's the unfortunate thing, these things struck so quick, and were pretty powerful. Last I heard there was 5 fatalities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Awaiting intercept of STODDARD Co MO Storm Just south of bloomfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 That's the unfortunate thing, these things struck so quick, and were pretty powerful. Last I heard there was 5 fatalities I guess we just missed this. No one was prepared or alarmed for this kind of event. I have never seen them blare the sirens for so long. when they first did it, all of us on a local met board were basically laughing at it. After a while I guess they had the right idea with how bad these storms got. by the time they got to me...we had sirens for 45 min. You could tell by then with every single radio and local news breaking in that is was a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 MSNBC says 6 dead now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 CNN: 3 confirmed dead in Dent County, Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Jackson, MS is going to be in trouble from this supercell all by its lonesome, heading right for the city. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 323 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 400 PM CST * AT 323 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR KIRBY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO UNION CHURCH...BLUE HILL...MCBRIDE AND CASEYVILLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Jackson cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Jackson, MS is going to be in trouble from this supercell all by its lonesome, heading right for the city. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 323 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 400 PM CST * AT 323 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR KIRBY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO UNION CHURCH...BLUE HILL...MCBRIDE AND CASEYVILLE That thing is getting nasty in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 345 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 ..SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT DISCUSSION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS RAMPING UP ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. OVERALL...NWP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION FOR TODAY...BASED ON COMPARISON TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RUC ANALYSIS OUTPUT. THE SPECIAL 31/18Z KJAN RAOB SOUNDING ALREADY SHOWS MUCH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION FROM THIS MORNING HAVING BEEN ERODED IN RESPONSE TO COOLING IN THE 800-700-MB LAYER AND SOME SURFACE HEATING. AROUND 600 J/KG OF SBCAPE WAS NOTED IN THIS SOUNDING...WITH AROUND 30 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST RUC MESO-ANALYSIS...WHICH INDICATES A BROAD ZONE OF POSITIVE BUOYANCY EXTENDING FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE I-55 CORRIDOR. IN THIS REGION...LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS NOTED...WITH SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS BUOYANCY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UNSEASONABLY MOIST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE NAM APPEARS TO BEST INITIALIZE THIS MODERATE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNSTABLE MODEL. AS FOR THE KINEMATICS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WEDGE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY H5 SPEEDS OF 50-60 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 50-60 KT IN THIS REGION...WHERE THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PARAMETER RANGES FROM 20-30 AND THE SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER RANGES FROM 6-12...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THESE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MULTI-MODAL CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...WHERE CONVECTION HAS EXHIBITED BOTH SUPERCELLULAR AND MULTICELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS MOSTLY KEPT THE CONVECTION FROM REMAINING DISCRETE...THOUGH INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE SPATIALLY SEPARATED SUFFICIENTLY FOR LITTLE OBSTRUCTION TO MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW. THUS...CONVECTION HAS MADE SEVERAL ATTEMPTS AT DEEPER ROTATION. UPON COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 772 HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE JACKSON METRO AREA BASED ON THE SPATIAL EXPANSION OF THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DEEP-LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE NORTHWEST CWA AROUND 6 PM. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...IT WILL DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PERSIST. 0-1 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 150-300 M2/S2...WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH ANY PREFRONTAL DISCRETE CONVECTION OR ANY QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT EVOLVES NEAR THE COLD FRONT. AS SUCH...TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL REMAIN A DEFINITE CONCERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OF 60-80 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. LOCAL HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...AND MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION ALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE ATTENDANT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Massive HP complex moving into MS now tornado warned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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