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Severe Weather - New Years Eve 2010


David Reimer

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MOC055-071-073-311715-

/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0079.000000T0000Z-101231T1715Z/

CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-

1022 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GASCONADE...SOUTHWESTERN

FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CST...

AT 1018 AM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR I-44 NEAR MILE MARKER 190...OR 1 MILE NORTH

OF ROLLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

1027 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

MOC055-071-073-311715-

/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0079.000000T0000Z-101231T1715Z/

CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-

1027 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GASCONADE...SOUTHWESTERN

FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CST...

AT 1022 AM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROLLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

45 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IN ROLLA...COMPLETELY

DESTROYING HOMES...TAKE SHELTER NOW

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red box for me

nice couplets in MO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 768

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1035 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1035 AM UNTIL

300 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ONGOING OVER NERN MO

ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD TODAY INTO AREA ALONG AND S OF

WARM FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WHILE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL

LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG

DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN LOW-TOPPED

TSTM ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE /REF.

CURRENT ILX VWP/...SETUP WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING

WINDS...HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

1039 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

MOC055-071-073-311715-

/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0079.000000T0000Z-101231T1715Z/

CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-

1039 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GASCONADE...SOUTHWESTERN

FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CST...

AT 1035 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

A CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF

CUBA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED TORNADOES THAT HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT

DAMAGE IN ROLLA. TAKE SHELTER NOW!

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south storm..lines of storms some discrete from just south of me (PIA) all the way down to LIT

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR

1052 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WEST CENTRAL IZARD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

SOUTHEASTERN BAXTER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

NORTHWESTERN STONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

EAST CENTRAL SEARCY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CST

* AT 1049 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE

STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF THOLA...OR 13 MILES EAST OF

MARSHALL. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50

MPH.

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STL bow like feature for the metro

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

1056 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

WESTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

SOUTHWESTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL NOON CST

* AT 1052 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED

TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE.

THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM

BEAUFORT TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHERRYVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 50 MPH.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1104 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN KY...NERN AR...AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311704Z - 311800Z

TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 18Z FOR PARTS OF NERN

AR...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL...AND SWRN KY.

PARTIAL CLEARING IN WAKE OF EWD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE... AND NWD

ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION EWD

WITH TIME INTO WRN TN...SERN MO AND SRN IL. A BROKEN SQUALL LINE

INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CONTINUES MAINLY FROM CNTRL

AR NWD THROUGH ERN MO AND WRN IL ALONG EWD ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT.

THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW

HOURS FROM NRN AR INTO SERN MO AND SRN THROUGH CNTRL IL. SRN PORTION

OF LINE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DUE TO STRONGER CAP WITH SWD EXTENT

THROUGH SRN AR INTO NRN LA. SO SRN LIMIT OF INITIAL THREAT WILL

LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF MEMPHIS AREA. HOWEVER...AS UPPER JET PIVOTS

NEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE

REGION COULD RESULT IN SWD EROSION OF THE CAP WITH TIME AND ANOTHER

WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FARTHER S LATER TODAY.

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WARREN...

WESTERN ST. CHARLES...SOUTHWESTERN ST. LOUIS...FRANKLIN...

JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES

UNTIL NOON CST...

AT 1105 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS

IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES. THESE DANGEROUS

STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON TO 6

MILES EAST OF ANTHONIES MILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE ARE BEING RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE FROM CRAWFORD COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE VERY DANGEROUS AND IT

IS TIME TO TAKE SHELTER NOW!

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Storms in western IL are getting their act together as the storms in MO start to line/bow out. Chicago could be under the gun later today! Wouldn't have thought that looking at everything yesterday.

Tornado warning just SW of the St. Louis Metro area... looks like they could get some strong winds from a bowing storm heading that direction.

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Storms in western IL are getting their act together as the storms in MO start to line/bow out. Chicago could be under the gun later today! Wouldn't have thought that looking at everything yesterday.

Tornado warning just SW of the St. Louis Metro area... looks like they could get some strong winds from a bowing storm heading that direction.

The models have just been bad in trying to resolve the sfc/near sfc temps especially farther north. Even now they're still underdone. When modifying for current conditions, there isn't a lot of instability farther north/east, but the environment could be favorable enough to maintain this stuff for a while.

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there are several decent couplets in that bow thingie heading towards STL

TOR WARN for the city of STL

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

1122 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

JERSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CST

* AT 1117 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES IN

ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. THESE DANGEROUS

STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DUTZOW TO

RICHWOODS AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

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The models have just been bad in trying to resolve the sfc/near sfc temps especially farther north. Even now they're still underdone. When modifying for current conditions, there isn't a lot of instability farther north/east, but the environment could be favorable enough to maintain this stuff for a while.

They've been having trouble bringing the instability north with all of the severe systems from the last couple of months... seems as though they can't pick up on the intense mesoscale LL advection occurring near the cold front.

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