janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I am surprised there is not at least a 10% hatched area for strong tornadoes. Some of those damage reports from above seems like at least EF2 or even EF3 damage. "Brick House Destroyed." I agree if fact a perhaps a low end MODERATE risk mat be needed for MS/AR/LA if the RUC is near correct....waiting for NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I agree if fact a perhaps a low end MODERATE risk mat be needed for MS/AR/LA if the RUC is near correct....waiting for NAM confirmed by NAM in fact it has CAPE values of 2000 at 18z and what looks like a second wave over LA backing winds at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 heading right for branson,,which may be pretty packed for new years BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 805 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN TANEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 845 AM CST. * AT 802 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EDGEWATER BEACH...OR 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRANSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRADLEYVILLE...EDGEWATER BEACH... FORSYTH...GARRISON...MERRIAM WOODS...OZARK BEACH...POWERSITE... ROCKAWAY BEACH...TANEYVILLE AND WALNUT SHADE. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Can someone take a closer look at the next TOR warned cell in NW AR? SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 807 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 ARC087-143-311430- /O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-101231T1430Z/ WASHINGTON AR-MADISON AR- 807 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 ...TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 830 AM CST FOR WESTERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES... AT 805 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR WINSLOW... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION...A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WINSLOW... WOOLSEY...BRENTWOOD...WYOLA...ARNETT...HICKS...BLACK OAK...SULPHUR CITY...CROSSES...DURHAM...ELKINS AND TUTTLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS! && LAT...LON 3576 9408 3576 9434 3607 9402 3592 9381 TIME...MOT...LOC 1407Z 225DEG 38KT 3579 9415 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 ARK Chapter of IPN reporting death toll is up to four in Cincinnati, AR now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 652 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 UPDATE HAVE JUST SENT THE FIRST...BUT PROBABLY NOT THE LAST...UPDATE FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE. INCOMING DATA IS SHOWING THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AS WELL AS CAPE CONTINUE TO INCREASE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...UPPED POPS A CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES...AND HAVE EVEN INCREASED EXPECTED MAX TEMPS IN SOME SPOTS DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING. TO ALL THOSE INTERESTED...WE WILL BE RELEASING A 17Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 This is going to be a long day.....and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yeah, hatching/maybe a moderate really really really really really need considered right now...brief tornadoes my foot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 via Twitter @BCDailyRecord: Multiple deaths confirmed by journalist on the ground after tornado hits rural Cincinnati, AR. While I like tornadoes and damage I wish things like this would not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yeah, hatching/maybe a moderate really really really really really need considered right now...brief tornadoes my foot... Like a 10 or 15% hatched area for strong tornadoes. I would not be surprised to see a few long-lived strong/violent EF3-EF4 tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 3 confirmed dead http://www.nwaonline.com/news/2010/dec/31/tornado-reported-northeast-washington-county/?breaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 3 confirmed dead http://www.nwaonline...ounty/?breaking Wow, I hope that isn't right. It says 3 dead and later in the article says no confirmed fatalities/injuries. I hope it is bad journalism in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Wow, I hope that isn't right. It says 3 dead and later in the article says no confirmed fatalities/injuries. I hope it is bad journalism in this case. Multiple sources are reporting at least 3, some 4 fatalities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Multiple sources are reporting at least 3, some 4 fatalities... Yeah they just changed the article wording. That is terrible news. Hope there aren't more injuries/fatalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Multiple sources are reporting at least 3, some 4 fatalities... Local ABC station here (KHBS/KHOG 40/29) is reporting that emergency crews are still having trouble getting there due to damage/downed power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 KFSM streaming... http://www.5newsonline.com/videobeta/?watchLive=kfsm-sports-live-sports-talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I am really surprised that spc did not slap a moderate risk as others have mentioned for a good chunk of MS for today. The RUC is screaming tornadic supercells late this afternoon and early evening and a few tornadoes could be strong. SRH near 500 m/s, li's near -4, cape around 1250 j/kg, and nice backed surface winds. Not to mention there should be some clearing taking place across the area per visibile satellite this morning. Yikes!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I am really surprised that spc did not slap a moderate risk as others have mentioned for a good chunk of MS for today. The RUC is screaming tornadic supercells late this afternoon and early evening and a few tornadoes could be strong. SRH near 500 m/s, li's near -4, cape around 1250 j/kg, and nice backed surface winds. Not to mention there should be some clearing taking place across the area per visibile satellite this morning. Yikes!!!! Maybe a higher slight with 10% TOR, 30% wind but not quite Moderate Risk. Storms will line out, as they actually are right now, somewhat reducing the tornado risk. They have an update coming in about 1-1.5 hours. EDIT: Heh, you posted the same thing on ST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Maybe a higher slight with 10% TOR, 30% wind but not quite Moderate Risk. Storms will line out, as they actually are right now, somewhat reducing the tornado risk. They have an update coming in about 1-1.5 hours. Yeah, along the front the storms will line out...but not in the free warm sector ahead of the front...not with some light capping in place allowing storms to be discrete... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yeah, along the front the storms will line out...but not in the free warm sector ahead of the front...not with some light capping in place allowing storms to be discrete... Which is what I am concerned about late this afternoon through early evening in MS. Discrete supercells out in front of the line according to the ruc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yeah, along the front the storms will line out...but not in the free warm sector ahead of the front...not with some light capping in place allowing storms to be discrete... I suppose you're right to some degree, heh. I haven't had much time to look at it this morning (at work!). It'll be a race to see how strong these storms can get before the front catches up. I'm still not sure about an upgrade to Moderate though. Here's a nice grab from southern MO with two good couplets in close proximity (both TOR warned): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I suppose you're right to some degree, heh. I haven't had much time to look at it this morning (at work!). It'll be a race to see how strong these storms can get before the front catches up. I'm still not sure about an upgrade to Moderate though. Here's a nice grab from southern MO with two good couplets in close proximity (both TOR warned): The front is not exactly going to be racing eastward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The front is not exactly going to be racing eastward... Yeah, the front's not moving fast, but the discrete cells that are forming are within close range of the cold front to begin with. It's not racing east, but it wouldn't take much to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Damage with the srn TOR... 713 NWUS53 KSGF 311538 LSRSGF PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 938 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0925 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 N DAWSON 37.33N 92.31W 12/31/2010 WRIGHT MO AMATEUR RADIO STRUCTURE DAMAGE 5 MILES NORTH OF DAWSON. KURTZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 And with the nrn storm... 203 NWUS53 KSGF 311544 LSRSGF PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 944 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0932 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 SW WAYNESVILLE 37.78N 92.27W 12/31/2010 PULASKI MO LAW ENFORCEMENT POSSIBLE TORNADO SOUTH OF BUCKHORN...NEAR HIGHWAY 17 AND CANNON RANGE ROAD. KURTZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 943 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... BROWN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1015 AM CST * AT 939 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF BEVERLY...OR 20 MILES EAST OF QUINCY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BUCKHORN...MOUNT STERLING...KELLERVILLE...MOUND STATION... COOPERTOWN AND RIPLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 tSGF continues Tornado Warning for Phelps [MO] till 10:15 AM CST ...AT 957 AM CST...OFFICIALS AT FORT LEONARD WOOD HAS CONFIRMED THAT A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THE ARMY BASE. AT 957 AM...THE STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROLLA....AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 new storm, ilstormchaser if you leave now you can get this one south of you BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1022 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 1100 AM CST * AT 1018 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOWLING GREEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Eastern AR has cleared up nicely on the vis satellite. This could mean trouble early this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 new day 1 still slight and still only 5% TOR probs DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... ..MID MS VALLEY/OZARKS 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU WHICH WILL TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR MKC AS OF 15Z WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP NNEWD...OCCLUDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS POLAR FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING PACIFIC FRONT OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP NWD THROUGH ERN MO/IL. STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF MO ALONG AND AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT...WITHIN ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM. WHILE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC HEATING TODAY...THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. DEW POINTS OF 55-60 F/ COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF. 12Z SGF SOUNDING/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/DESTABILIZATION TO MAINTAIN ONGOING TSTMS EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER/ WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OWING TO A PERSISTENT 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ AND SWLY MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD STRENGTHENING TO 70-90 KT BY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND SEVERE HAIL. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS CONSOLIDATED COLD FRONT OUTPACES MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..OZARK PLATEAU/MID SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY THE SWD EXTENSION OF ABOVE-MENTIONED TSTM REGIME IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING OVER AR INTO THE ARKLATEX. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND AREAS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING /NAMELY IN WAKE OF GRAVITY WAVE MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AR/ SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT. THE SRN EXTENT OF EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME COUPLED WITH THE STRONGER DIABATIC WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEW POINTS IN 60S ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. HERE TOO...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. A THIRD EPISODE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF SERN LA/SRN MS ALONG ERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS...SUSTAINED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG SRN EXTENSION OF LLJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS AREA...SEE MCD 2163. STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY ENHANCED BROAD-SCALE ASCENT INTO ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET PROPAGATING NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN CORRIDOR OF REGENERATIVE/TRAINING TSTMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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