Severe Weather - New Years Eve 2010

[SmokeEater]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

1124 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1215 AM CST

* AT 1122 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

HINDSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...

QUARTER SIZE HAIL...

WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...

BEAVER...BERRYVILLE...CLIFTY...EUREKA SPRINGS...FORUM...

GRANDVIEW...HINDSVILLE...OAK GROVE AND URBANETTE.

[Chicago Storm]

D1:

..LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

ALTHOUGH A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS ONGOING FROM THE

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND

COOLING APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF

THE WARM SECTOR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN THE

WARM SECTOR...AND CONTRIBUTES TO UNCERTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z THIS MORNING ACROSS

THE CENTRAL PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION WILL

OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF

SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY.

..LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES

WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE LOWER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION DUE TO CONSIDERABLE

CLOUD COVER...MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF

OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW AND

STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ARE PROGGED THIS EVENING...AS

ANOTHER IMPULSE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE

UPSTREAM TROUGH. THIS IMPULSE IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKER THAN ITS

PREDECESSOR...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT

FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE

PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR

SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE

POSSIBLE...PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL...BEFORE UPSCALE

GROWTH AND CONSOLIDATION INTO A LARGE SLOW MOVING MESOSCALE

CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TAKES PLACE NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD

ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...AND

PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN /TO 40-50+

KTS/...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE...WHILE TRAINING

CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY YIELDS HEAVY RAINFALL.

[Chicago Storm]

[Chicago Storm]

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

1221 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CST.

* AT 1218 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO NEAR SPARTA...OR 9 MILES EAST OF OZARK...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRUNER...DIGGINS...ELKHEAD...FORDLAND...

KELTNER...LINDEN...MARSHFIELD...NIANGUA...OLDFIELD...ROGERSVILLE

AND SPARTA.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 99 AND 105 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED

BY THIS TORNADO.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

[Chicago Storm]

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

1222 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

NORTHWESTERN TANEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CST.

* AT 1218 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTH OF INDIAN POINT...OR 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

KIMBERLING CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRANSON WEST...BRANSON...EDGEWATER

BEACH...FORSYTH...HOLLISTER...INDIAN POINT...KIMBERLING CITY...

MERRIAM WOODS...OZARK BEACH...POWERSITE...ROCKAWAY BEACH...SILVER

DOLLAR CITY...TABLE ROCK...TANEYVILLE AND WALNUT SHADE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE TABLE ROCK LAKE.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

[Kevin Askew]

Both tornadic with very good signatures.

[Thundersnow12]

northern cell

southern cell

[JoMo]

And there's a tornado watch for my area.....

[Thundersnow12]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 765

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

110 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

SOUTHEAST KANSAS

SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 110 AM UNTIL 800 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF GROVE

OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF VICHY MISSOURI. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN MOIST AXIS INVOF WEAK LEAD

IMPULSE MOVING RAPIDLY NE AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW

ENTERING WRN OK /REF MCD 2156/. STRENGTH OF LOW LVL

SHEAR...CONTINUED LOW LVL MOISTENING...AND DAMAGE REPORTS ASSOCIATED

WITH STRONGLY ROTATING STORMS IN PAST HOUR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ONE

OR TWO TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND

GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

[Thundersnow12]

MD from right before they issued the red box..

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1244 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK/SERN KS/NWRN AR/MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 310644Z - 310745Z

STORMS ARE INCREASING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SRN MO

AND VICINITY. GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES AND A MOISTENING

BOUNDARY LAYER...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING -- LIKELY REQUIRING

TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LYING SW-NE FROM WRN OK INTO

NWRN MO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN A ZONE OF STRENGTHENING QG ASCENT DRIVEN

BY AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET JUST DOWNSTREAM OF MID-LEVEL

SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS WRN OK/CENTRAL KS.

WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION AND THOUGH

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...ANY FURTHER

MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALLOW A FEW EVOLVING STORMS

TO BECOME ROOTED MORE CLOSELY TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT

SEVERAL HOURS.

A FEW CELLS OVER SWRN MO HAVE SHOWN STRONG LOW-LEVEL ROTATION IN THE

PAST HALF HOUR...AIDED BY 37 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR PER LATEST SGF

/SPRINGFIELD MO/ WSR-88D VWP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD

ACROSS THIS REGION...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE/INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT

MORE NEARLY SURFACE BASED WITH TIME...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE

REQUIRED.

[Thundersnow12]

[L.B. LaForce]

Well, I'm up, checked the weather, and back to bed. Not going to MO today..lol

[Solak]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

610 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

ARC007-143-OKC001-311230-

/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0042.000000T0000Z-101231T1230Z/

WASHINGTON AR-BENTON AR-ADAIR OK-

610 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 630 AM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN

ADAIR...SOUTHERN BENTON AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 605 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR WESTVILLE...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM WITH STRONG LOW

LEVEL ROTATION...A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR COULD FORM AT ANY TIME.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...LAKE

FRANCIS...RHEA...WEDINGTON...GALLITIN...SAVOY...WHEELER...HARMON...

HIGHFILL...ROCKY COMFORT...TONTITOWN...HEALING SPRINGS AND ELM

SPRINGS.

[Solak]

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

612 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

SOUTHERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 645 AM CST

* AT 609 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUNCH...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 55 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...

BLACKBURN...BUNCH...LEE CREEK...PRAIRIE GROVE...STRICKLER AND

WINSLOW.

[southmdwatcher]

That is a mean looking couplet on the northern most Tornado warned storm, and it has been consistently strong for 7 or more scans on the GR2AE

[Arnold214]

Yeah, a couple of volume scans ago, there was a donut hole over Westville, OK with near 110kt gtg. Not a good new years eve surprise there.

[Solak]

TSA: Cincinnati [Washington Co, AR] co-op observer reports TORNADO at 06:09 AM CST -- prelimnary report of tornado damage in cincinnati. one mobile home and two barns destroyed. additional information to follow.

[Ozarkwx]

TSA: Cincinnati [Washington Co, AR] co-op observer reports TORNADO at 06:09 AM CST -- prelimnary report of tornado damage in cincinnati. one mobile home and two barns destroyed. additional information to follow.

I am just to the NE of that TOR warned polygon in Washington CO, AR. (on the midline). How is it looking at this point?

[Wx 24/7]

I am just to the NE of that TOR warned polygon in Washington CO, AR. (on the midline). How is it looking at this point?

Ozark, you just went under a TOR Warning.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 745 AM CST

Low level rotation continues to be impressive...

[Ozarkwx]

Ozark, you just went under a TOR Warning.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 745 AM CST

Low level rotation continues to be impressive...

Camera and basement readied.

[southmdwatcher]

I am just to the NE of that TOR warned polygon in Washington CO, AR. (on the midline). How is it looking at this point?

The couplet looks slightly weaker and looks to pass between Eureka Springs and Berryville. You should still take cover

[janetjanet998]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

655 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0609 AM TORNADO CINCINNATI 36.04N 94.51W

12/31/2010 WASHINGTON AR CO-OP OBSERVER

ADDITIONAL PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM CINCINNATI. EXTENSIVE

DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE AREA. BRICK HOME DESTROYED.

VEHICLES DAMAGED. VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPT FACILITY DAMAGED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

320 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

1230 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 S FORDLAND 37.10N 92.94W

12/31/2010 WEBSTER MO EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. POWER POLES SNAPPED.

NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SPOUT SPRINGS ROAD AND DENNY

ROAD. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

1231 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 S FORDLAND 37.11N 92.93W

12/31/2010 WEBSTER MO EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER POLES LEANING OVER AT 45 DEGREE ANGLE NEAR THE

INTERSECTION OF SILVER SHADE ROAD AND GREEN HILL ROAD

JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY Z. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

1232 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 S FORDLAND 37.12N 92.95W

12/31/2010 WEBSTER MO EMERGENCY MNGR

THREE TO FOUR FOOT DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN ON A CAR ON

GREEN HILL ROAD JUST LESS THAN A MILE EAST OF SPOUT

SPRING ROAD. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

1221 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 NE SPARTA 37.04N 93.02W

12/31/2010 CHRISTIAN MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

MOBILE HOME ROLLED OVER INTO JOHNS FORD ROAD...ROOF OFF

OF A FRAME HOUSE. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADS IN

THE VICINITY. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

1223 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSE ROGERSVILLE 37.05N 93.01W

12/31/2010 CHRISTIAN MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN AND A FEW OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED NEAR THE

INTERSECTION OF BRADEN AND LAROSE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

1227 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 ESE ROGERSVILLE 37.08N 92.98W

12/31/2010 CHRISTIAN MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN...DAMAGE TO A FEW BARNS AND

OUTBUILDINGS...PORCH DAMAGED ON RESIDENCE NEAR THE

INTERSTECT OF HIGHWAYS KK AND U. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

1229 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 ESE ROGERSVILLE 37.09N 92.97W

12/31/2010 WEBSTER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED NEAR THE

INTERSECTION OF OLGA ROAD AND HIGHWAY U. POSSIBLE

TORNADO.

[janetjanet998]

jackson picking up on higher dewpoints then progged

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

456 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON

AND TONIGHT...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE

AND VERY

POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL

CONUS WHILE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE ARKLAMISS. DEEP-LAYER

Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AS A LONG FETCH OF

DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW

ALOFT EAST OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE ASCENT

WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY ENHANCED TONIGHT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION

OF A SW-NE-ORIENTED JET MAX FEATURING 120-130-KT H2 CORE WINDS MOVES

ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD OKLAHOMA

AND INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS

OF 1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM THE

GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION TO THE

WEST OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC. NWP

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OF DEEP TROPICAL

ORIGIN...WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION TODAY BY MEAN LOW-LEVEL

FLOW OF 30-40 KT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE

LOWER 60S ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WITH THE 65F

ISODROSOTHERM EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST

TEXAS. BUOYS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ARE REPORTING DEWPOINTS INTO THE

UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

AS FOR NWP MODEL INITIALIZATION...THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE

INITIALIZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR AROUND 2-3

DEGREES TOO DRY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...WITH THE NAM SHOWING

BETTER INITIALIZATION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS. WITH REGARD

TO FRONTAL TIMING...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT

AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND NEARS DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WITH

MOST OF THE UPPER SUPPORT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. MODELS

ARE SHOWING INVERTED TROUGHING IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS

THE SOUTHERN CWA...ENHANCING CONFIDENCE IN THE SLOWER FRONTAL MOTION.

NEVERTHELESS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG BAROCLINICITY BEING

MAINTAINED ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE

MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF IT AND H85 THETA-E VALUES REACH THE

327-330K RANGE. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO REPRESENT A MULTI-MODEL

CONSENSUS FOR FRONTAL TIMING...LYING BETWEEN THE MUCH SLOWER NAM AND

FASTER GFS.

BUFR SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM...INDICATE A STABLE LAYER

AROUND 900 MB...WHICH COULD INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION

TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER

FORCING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION

WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK

INSOLATION TO RESULT IN SOME SURFACE HEATING AND THE GFS SHOWING A

WEAKENING CAP WITH TIME. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO NOON...MOST GUIDANCE

SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE-BASED OR SEVERE

CONVECTION...AND THUS MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO NOON HAS

BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY

THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE.

AFTER NOON...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...COMBINED WITH

SBCAPE/MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED BY THE NAM TO REACH THE 800-1200 J/KG

RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SURFACE-BASED

CONVECTION TO INITIATE. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS

FORCING WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT TOO STRONG...SOME CAPPING MAY

REMAIN...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES INCREASE TO 40-50 KT.

THIS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS CONSISTENT WITH HIGH-RES WRF

GUIDANCE. 0-1 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 150-300 M2/S2

JUXTAPOSED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPE VALUES WILL SUPPORT

TORNADOES. THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER IS ALSO FORECAST TO

REACH THE 2-5 UNITS RANGE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA

TODAY...WITH A BROAD NORTHERN GRADIENT AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ANYWHERE

ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...THE OUTLOOK AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

PRODUCTS HAVE REMOVED ANY SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE FOR STRONG

TORNADOES...AS THEIR POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ANYWHERE TODAY. DAMAGING

STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS

WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL

ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE DEEP-LAYER FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH

OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION

EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...WITH

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PERSISTING AHEAD OF THE MORE LINEAR FORCING.

HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LASTING

THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOTION SLOWS AND CONVECTION

SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...INCLUDING STRONG

TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND QUARTER-SIZE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH

THIS CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE

SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD

SEVERE WIND EVENT.

[janetjanet998]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 767

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

730 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ARKANSAS

WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS

SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 730 AM UNTIL 300

PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

TH

DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF

EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW OVER WRN MO/ERN OK AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT

ASSOCIATED WITH NEG TILT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES NE ACROSS

REGION. WHILE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...STRENGTH OF

SHEAR...CONTINUED MOIST INFLOW...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG

FRONT/EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW

SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE SUPERCELLS. THESE COULD

YIELD BRIEF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

[Ozarkwx]

The couplet looks slightly weaker and looks to pass between Eureka Springs and Berryville. You should still take cover

Thanks. Although every cat in the house was nervously milling and the dog hid under the bed, turns out it was not much more than a loud shower with only mild gusts.

[janetjanet998]

3 new tornado warnngs just issued by SPG

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

733 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

NORTHERN STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

WESTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 800 AM CST.

* AT 728 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAPE FAIR...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF

KIMBERLING CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CRANE...EXTREME SOUTHERN SPRINGFIELD...

GALENA...HIGHLANDVILLE...NIXA AND OZARK.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

SOUTHERN STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

SOUTHWESTERN TANEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 815 AM CST.

* AT 732 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 12 MILES SOUTH OF GOLDEN...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

KIMBERLING CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRANSON WEST...BRANSON...HOLLISTER...

INDIAN POINT AND KIMBERLING CITY.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

736 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

SOUTHWESTERN HICKORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 815 AM CST.

* AT 732 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO NEAR HUMANSVILLE...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF STOCKTON...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DUNNEGAN...ELKTON...FLEMINGTON...

HERMITAGE...HUMANSVILLE...NEMO...QUINCY...WEAUBLEAU AND WHEATLAND

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

734 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

SOUTHERN STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

SOUTHWESTERN TANEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 815 AM CST.

* AT 732 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 12 MILES SOUTH OF GOLDEN...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

KIMBERLING CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRANSON WEST...BRANSON...HOLLISTER...

INDIAN POINT AND KIMBERLING CITY.

[blackjack123]

I am surprised there is not at least a 10% hatched area for strong tornadoes. Some of those damage reports from above seems like at least EF2 or even EF3 damage. "Brick House Destroyed."

[Solak]

via Twitter

@BCDailyRecord: Multiple deaths confirmed by journalist on the ground after tornado hits rural Cincinnati, AR.

[Ellinwood]

Very nice...

[Solak]

TSA: Westville [Adair Co, OK] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 06:05 AM CST -- preliminary report of extensive damage on north side and to the northeast of westville.