Stebo Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 +100 Everything looks like Armageddon to him, and every system could have supercells all the way into OH/PA, according to him. What else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I'm guessing the dryness of the near surface airmass has allowed enough evaporative cooling from mid level storms (TT at 0Z is 51 by NAM) to mix down. I could be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I'm guessing the dryness of the near surface airmass has allowed enough evaporative cooling from mid level storms (TT at 0Z is 51 by NAM) to mix down. I could be wrong... That's about right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 My God shut up. This is no armageddon. There could be a few strong tornadoes, but we've seen several worse setups just this past year. ROFL thanks Tony................................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The NAM thermos are beyond garbage...beyond garbage...they have us being in the mid-upper 30s at 03z...we're currently 46 here and not going down...my God...a three hour forecast...pathetic...beyond pathetic...abysmal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 +100 Everything looks like Armageddon to him, and every system could have supercells all the way into OH/PA, according to him. What else is new. It may not be the best setup of the year but look what happened on November 29th from that tornado outbreak. Wasnt one of those tornadoes rated EF4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The NAM thermos are beyond garbage...beyond garbage...they have us being in the mid-upper 30s at 03z...we're currently 46 here and not going down...my God...a three hour forecast...pathetic...beyond pathetic...abysmal... Ya I really think we'll make a run at 60...you for sure. 850mb winds pushing 70kts at 12z tomorrow in eastern MO, tons of WAA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 My info seems to put Southeast Missouri a bit north of the best instability. Any promets agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Ya I really think we'll make a run at 60...you for sure. 850mb winds pushing 70kts at 12z tomorrow in eastern MO, tons of WAA.. It's been incredibly windy here in Cape Girardeau. Due south winds at about 18G25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0852 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 310252Z - 310445Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM NERN TX/ERN OK INTO WRN AR. GUSTY WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE MODE...ALTHOUGH A HAIL AND CONDITIONAL THREAT OF TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A STRONG EJECTING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO W TX AS OF 03Z. ALSO NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ANOTHER FEATURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SPS TO LRD...MOVING RAPIDLY EWD. AS THESE EMBEDDED FEATURES ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS...A RASH OF NEAR-SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS LIKELY. CURRENTLY...ACTIVITY OVER SERN OK IS SHALLOW AND BENEATH A MINOR CAPPING INVERSION. THIS ACTIVTY...AND/OR NEW ACTIVITY MAY STRENGTHEN/DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE COOLING ALOFT WILL BE FELT FIRST. RELATIVELY COOL MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS A HAIL THREAT EXISTS ESPECIALLY OVER OK/TX WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT COEXIST. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WARM ENOUGH FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. A MAJOR UNKNOWN IS THE EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NERN TX/SERN OK WHERE SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THESE AREAS. ..JEWELL.. 12/31/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 It may not be the best setup of the year but look what happened on November 29th from that tornado outbreak. Wasnt one of those tornadoes rated EF4? We're not saying the potential isn't there, because it is. Just the way he goes about it. And yes, the Parish, LA tornado was rated EF4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The NAM thermos are beyond garbage...beyond garbage...they have us being in the mid-upper 30s at 03z...we're currently 46 here and not going down...my God...a three hour forecast...pathetic...beyond pathetic...abysmal... I agree with you on that forecast model above. I would not be happy if I was expecting severe and nothing but crap is showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 My God shut up. This is no armageddon. There could be a few strong tornadoes, but we've seen several worse setups just this past year. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1000 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS * UNTIL 1045 PM CST * AT 957 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FIGURE FIVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE... QUARTER SIZE HAIL... WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH... * SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... BLACKBURN...CEDARVILLE...CHESTER...FIGURE FIVE...LEE CREEK... MOUNTAINBURG...NATURAL DAM...RUDY...SHORT...STRICKLER AND WINSLOW. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN ARKANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1000 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS * UNTIL 1045 PM CST * AT 957 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FIGURE FIVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE... QUARTER SIZE HAIL... WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH... * SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... BLACKBURN...CEDARVILLE...CHESTER...FIGURE FIVE...LEE CREEK... MOUNTAINBURG...NATURAL DAM...RUDY...SHORT...STRICKLER AND WINSLOW. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN ARKANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 4. That thing's about to go tornadic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 That thing's about to go tornadic... Looks more elevated...strong rotation doesn't extend quite as far S...still a good ETVS at or above 2000ft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1016 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1010 PM HAIL CEDARVILLE 35.57N 94.37W 12/30/2010 E1.75 INCH CRAWFORD AR TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Decent couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 This may need a TW shortly. BWER just north of the STW'd cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I'm in southeastern Sequoyah county...we just missed out on the action. All we had was some rain and lightning. Went severe just north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 omg Yazoo City all over again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 HOLY SH*T... the last thing any of us want to see..that poor town can't catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 This may need a TW shortly. BWER just north of the STW'd cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 This should be getting a TW anytime now. BWER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 This should be getting a TW anytime now. BWER. Definitely not looking as elevated now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The NAM thermos are beyond garbage...beyond garbage...they have us being in the mid-upper 30s at 03z...we're currently 46 here and not going down...my God...a three hour forecast...pathetic...beyond pathetic...abysmal... The RUC is trying to pull the same thing as the NAM, maybe even worse. Careful analysis of the warm sector will be important tomorrow. Model surface temps are likely to range anywhere from slightly to majorly underdone throughout the entire length. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 This should be getting a TW anytime now. BWER. Haha nice AIM chat popping up in that. Chuckled a little when I saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I am loving the AIM chat popping up in that. Ya, I noticed it afterwards, just said screw it, and left it like that. We were talking about that cell anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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