SmokeEater Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 347 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074- 301200- ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND- MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR- SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES- CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON- NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER- WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH- SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN- LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG... WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP... OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI... TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON... ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY... CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GRENADA... VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA... MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR... STARKVILLE...GREENVILLE...BELZONI...ISOLA...DURANT...TCHULA... LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON... BROOKSVILLE...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA... YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE... PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...VICKSBURG... JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON... UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON... CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL... TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN... STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE... MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS... BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA... WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG 347 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010 ...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEW YEARS EVE... SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARKLAMISS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES... DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION DURING NEW YEARS EVE. WHILE THERE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT TIMING AND HAZARDS...EVERYONE SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON. PREPARE A PLAN OF ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER STRIKES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Yazoo City area can't catch a break this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CST THU DEC 30 2010 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ..SYNOPSIS THE CURRENTLY EVOLVING/DEEPENING WESTERN STATES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS NEW YEARS EVE. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AS A COLD FRONT SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY. APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL NEW YEARS EVE. ..OZARKS/ARKLATEX TO MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY VIA THE ARRIVAL OF APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND A WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR...EXTENSIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY AND ARKLATEX...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION DOES COMPLICATE THE DETAILS OF SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT REGIONALLY. HOWEVER...THE STEADY RETURN OF A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS...WITH 60+ F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY AND UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS TO THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST/BUT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY ESPECIALLY WHERE POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING ARE ABLE TO OCCUR. THIS MAY YIELD MLCAPE UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WARM SECTOR...SAVE UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MLCAPE POTENTIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH EARLY DAY TSTMS POSSIBLE BOTH WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR AND/OR NEAR THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/BRUNT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. OTHERWISE...A FULL-PERIOD RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ARE MORE PROBABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITHIN A CORRIDOR FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY COINCIDENT WITH A HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS...WHERE RELATIVELY MORE CONSEQUENTIAL DESTABILIZATION SEEMS PROBABLE. EVEN WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED BUOYANCY...A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD /ACCENTUATED BY SOUTHERLY 1 KM FLOW UP TO 45-55 KT/ WILL SUPPORT A MULTI-MODAL POTENTIAL FOR SEMI-DISCRETE/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND QLCS DEVELOPMENT...WITH POSSIBILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS/SOME TORNADOES...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOME SEVERE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 12/30/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 this is quite alarming...nasty bullseye in north central MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Man, that's tempting...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 didn't look at 00z models but 12z both NAM and GFS have pocket of 60 dewpoints as far north as STL at 18z friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 this is quite alarming...nasty bullseye in north central MO Even more! And I see SPC went 40 on sigtor ingredients. I'm also curious about the amount of CAPE in the second picture. Seems overdone, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Even more! And I see SPC went 40 on sigtor ingredients. I'm also curious about the amount of CAPE in the second picture. Seems overdone, but who knows. Although not part of the severe threat on the last Day 2 update, I would not be suprised from these models if the slight risk area for the initial Day 1 update tomorrow is extended into at least west central/southwestern Illinois (IMO roughly along and west of a Springfield-Paducah, KY line). Perhaps even farther into Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Hmmm, the models are keeping it dry in MO though after the early morning stuff. I'm not liking that. Here is the 15z sigtor ingredients: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Hmmm, the models are keeping it dry in MO though after the early morning stuff. I'm not liking that. Here is the 15z sigtor ingredients: That's probably due to the fact that it is under-doing CAPE values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 What are your thoughts on the MO play Stebo? You think there will be enough CAPE to get a second round to fire in the afternoon? There is definitely lots of horizontal vorticity to be played with and stretch into the vertical. Also, farther south: 625 FXUS64 KMEG 302056 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 256 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010 DISCUSSION A POTENT SPRING LIKE STORM IS ON TAP FOR THE MIDSOUTH THIS NEW YEAR'S EVE BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TO THE AREA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO CREEP UP WITH MID 50S IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND READINGS IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SCATTERED WAA RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THIS PAST 12Z RUN ON DEVELOPING THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE LLJ IN RETURN WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING SHIFTING OVERNIGHT INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ORGANIZED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF NEAR 35-40 KNOTS. BELIEVE THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH BREAKS TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 70'S IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THIS WILL PUT THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA SOUTH OF A JONESBORO ARKANSAS...AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 LINE...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING A PLUME OF 500-1500 CAPE VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 30/21Z. TO LOW OF SHEAR VALUES WILL NOT BE A FACTOR AS A MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF NEAR 80 KNOTS OVERLAYS A 50 KNOT LLJ FROM THE SOUTH. THE REGION WILL ALSO FALL UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300MB JET MAX AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO IN THE AFTERNOON...AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING WITH BOTH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTING FURTHER NORTH. MODELS REFLECT THIS WITH THE LOSS OF CAPE AFTER 00Z AND THE LLJ AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 What are your thoughts on the MO play Stebo? You think there will be enough CAPE to get a second round to fire in the afternoon? There is definitely lots of horizontal vorticity to be played with and stretch into the vertical. Well there certainly could be a play there, especially if MO was able to poke out into the sun a bit, being that its close to the low track. However it is hitched upon how much sunshine they get, it could be a drive for nothing. The other problem potentially would be if the moisture at 850MB lingers (NAM) or pulls away early (GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Well there certainly could be a play there, especially if MO was able to poke out into the sun a bit, being that its close to the low track. However it is hitched upon how much sunshine they get, it could be a drive for nothing. The other problem potentially would be if the moisture at 850MB lingers (NAM) or pulls away early (GFS) Yeah, definitely a gamble, but why not, its still 2010, and 2010 has kicked butt! the LLLR are also crazy! like 7 to potentially 8 C/km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Yeah, definitely a gamble, but why not, its still 2010, and 2010 has kicked butt! the LLLR are also crazy! like 7 to potentially 8 C/km Oh don't get me wrong it can bust, but it can boom too. There is a high ceiling for this one, if the ingredients come together things could be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Oh don't get me wrong it can bust, but it can boom too. There is a high ceiling for this one, if the ingredients come together things could be pretty good. Man, thats an early game though. Those models showing around noon central time!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Man, thats an early game though. Those models showing around noon central time!? Yeah, that's okay you'll have plenty of time to sleep over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Couple of the new 18z NAM runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 strong wording from Jackson AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 448 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010 .SHORT TERM... ...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED NEW YEARS EVE INTO EARLY NEW YEARS DAY... FIRST PORTION OF DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER SET-UP... POSSIBLE EVOLUTIONS...RESULTING HAZARDS...AND FORECAST CHANGES MADE IN THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FOLLOW IN THE LONG TERM SECTION. CURRENT RUC80/WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. INTERESTINGLY...THE BASE OF THE NEARLY CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW AS SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO BE AT A LOWER LATITUDE THAN GFS/ECMWF NWP CURRENTLY DEPICT. RUC80 ALSO DEPICTS A 120KT JET AT H2 RIDING SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OPPOSED TO A DEVELOPING 105KT JET EJECTING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD TRANSLATION. ANY DEVIATION SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING H5 CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ENHANCE SEVERITY OF STORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW GREATEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TO UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOSED MID-LVL LOW AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/FORCING STILL BEST FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST OF REGION. DESPITE THIS NEGATIVE FACTOR...OTHER THERMO AND DYNAMIC FACTORS DISCUSSED BELOW ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION RIDING ON 25-30KT H85-925 LAYER IS ONGOING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING ACROSS SE TEXAS/LOUISIANA RANGING FROM 63 UPWARDS TO 68. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PROG MID-60 SFC DEWPOINTS AND NEAR 328-330K SFC THETA-E AIR SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE... ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL COMBINE WITH A SOUTH-NORTH MLCAPE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH VALUES ~1700J/KG IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SCTL LOUISIANA TO ~500J/KG IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. COUPLED WITH VEERING 0-1/0-3/0-6 BULK SHEAR VECTORS AND HIGHLY CURVED LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS SHOWING 0-1KM SRH VALUES 200-325M^2/S^2...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP. SIG SEVERE PARAMETER(~30000)...SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER(~6 UNITS)...AND SIG TOR PARAMETER(~4-6 UNITS) BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SCTL LOUISIANA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. THESE PARAMETERS SLIGHTLY WEAKEN...BUT REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES WITH A WARM NOSE BTW H8-H7 POTENTIALLY CAPPING EARLY CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO INCREASE AS CIN ERODES AWAY BY EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. 30/12Z GFS SHOWING AN INCREASED TIME FRAME OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS OF BACKED LOW-LVL WINDS WOULD EXTEND THE TIME SPAN FOR SUPERCELLS TO REMAIN DISCRETE BEFORE CONGEALING INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS. DISCRETE STORMS LOOK TO FORM INTO A QLCS/SQUALL LINE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING NEW YEARS EVE. THIS LINE WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS LATE NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT AND EARLY NEW YEARS DAY MORNING. AS THE CLOSED MID/UPPER-LVL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PULL NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FRONTAL MOMENTUM AND MID-LVL FORCING BEGIN TO LAG EARLY NEW YEARS DAY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION COULD SLOW IN FORWARD PROGRESS. IF CARIBBEAN TAPPED MOISTURE (~200% NORMAL PWATS) IS ABLE TO POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF SLOWING FRONT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE FLASH FLOODING RISK. SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS: TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN APPEAR LIKELY NEW YEARS EVE AND INTO EARLY NEW YEARS DAY. FORECAST CHANGES: GRAPHICAL HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED INDICATING NEAR 20% PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES AND NEAR 10% FOR STRONG TORNADOES FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS. GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF WINDS GREATER THAN 75KTS AND 50KTS ARE ALSO LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE LOUISIANA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR IF EXCESSIVE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HAVE FORGONE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS. HOWEVER...LATER UPDATES MAY UPGRADE TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH./ALLEN/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looks like it could get really bad in Dixie Ally, some strong/large tornadoes are a pretty high threat, and the severe threat may be possible the whole way into IL,IN,maybe OH,western pa with elevated storms or low topped super cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 strong wording from Jackson Sounds like a pretty scary day for Dixie Alley. Has there ever any major outbreaks on December 31st of any given year for strong/violent tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looks like it could get really bad in Dixie Ally, some strong/large tornadoes are a pretty high threat, and the severe threat may be possible the whole way into IL,IN,maybe OH,western pa with elevated storms or low topped super cells there will not be storms let alone supercells in OH/PA....geez. there will be showers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looks like it could get really bad in Dixie Ally, some strong/large tornadoes are a pretty high threat, and the severe threat may be possible the whole way into IL,IN,maybe OH,western pa with elevated storms or low topped super cells Although we currently only have a 5% severe probability in the latest Day 2, the local forecasts for Springfield, IL on the Weather Channel are already warning that "a few storms may be severe" tomorrow--although the slight risk currently covers none of Illinois. Then again, the Day 2 outlooks on Jan. 6, 2008 only had southwestern Illinois in a slight risk for severe weather--and we all know what happened in northeastern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin the next day (even a tornado warning in the Milwaukee area IIRC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Although we currently only have a 5% severe probability in the latest Day 2, the local forecasts for Springfield, IL on the Weather Channel are already warning that "a few storms may be severe" tomorrow--although the slight risk currently covers none of Illinois. Then again, the Day 2 outlooks on Jan. 6, 2008 only had southwestern Illinois in a slight risk for severe weather--and we all know what happened in northeastern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin the next day (even a tornado warning in the Milwaukee area IIRC). I believe those products are grabbed from your NWS grid forecasts. It would be their wording being used, not TWC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Still liking the I-44 corr. near Memphis. Ill be checking to see if any sun in moring in E. AR. And may take a ride there by noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I believe those products are grabbed from your NWS grid forecasts. It would be their wording being used, not TWC's. From the NWS Lincoln forecast for tomorrow for the Springfield area (no mention of severe yet, but their Hazardous Weather Outlook only hints that "a few storms may be strong" but severe weather is not expected at this time: ILZ042-048-051-311000- LOGAN-MENARD-SANGAMON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LINCOLN...SPRINGFIELD 330 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010 .TONIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 40S. BREEZY. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. NOT AS COOL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. BREEZY. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. BREEZY. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 NAM is 4 mb stronger with the low(995mb) at 12z and more unstable then 12z run at that time (997 mb over NW MO) at 18z vs 1001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Severe Weather in West Texas, where no cape is present, when this upper air system comes into Dixie Alley, looks like Armageddon tomorrow This could be bad BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 744 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... HALE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. EASTERN LAMB COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. NORTHERN LUBBOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. NORTHEASTERN HOCKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. * UNTIL 830 PM CST * AT 736 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF FIELDTON TO 13 MILES WEST OF REESE CENTER...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF LITTLEFIELD TO 7 MILES EAST OF LEVELLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ANTON... SPADE...OLTON...SHALLOWATER...COTTON CENTER...HALFWAY...LUBBOCK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...ABERNATHY...HALE CENTER... IDALOU...PLAINVIEW AND PETERSBURG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Severe Weather in West Texas, where no cape is present, when this upper air system comes into Dixie Alley, looks like Armageddon tomorrow This could be bad BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 744 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... HALE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. EASTERN LAMB COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. NORTHERN LUBBOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. NORTHEASTERN HOCKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. * UNTIL 830 PM CST 0735 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NE AMHERST 34.02N 102.40W 12/30/2010 M76 MPH LAMB TX MESONET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 My God shut up. This is no armageddon. There could be a few strong tornadoes, but we've seen several worse setups just this past year. +100 Everything looks like Armageddon to him, and every system could have supercells all the way into OH/PA, according to him. What else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.