North Carolina winters folllowing a White Christmas

[Marion_NC_WX]

We're running an article here locally tomorrow about this past weekend's storm and how it could be a forshadowing to additional winter weather events, It seems to be the norm around the State of North Carolina that a white Christmas is followed by more signifcant or extreme winter weather events in the weeks thereafter.

Three years in particular that we targeted in the story was 1969-70, 1981-82 and 1993-94...those are the last three times that my hometown received a white christmas. With those dates in mind, I have done a little research thanks to the folks at the State Climate Office in Raleigh.

First off...the years 1969, 1981 and 1993 were "neutral" years in terms of El Nino or La Nina. I find that interesting considering how the current phase in the Pacific is looking more and more neutral by the week.

1969 was the record for a White Christmas here in Western North Carolina until this past weekend's storm. What followed in early 1970 was more snow and severe cold...temperatures statewide were way below average in January including a stretch from Jan 7th to Jan 11th 1970 where temperatures in the mountains fell as low as 20 below on the high peaks and even below zero away from the highest elevations.

1981 featured a huge elevation snow event where parts of Avery, Watauga and Wilkes Counties got as much as 15 inches of snow. Even Asheville Regional Airport picked up 2 inches of snow. What followed in the early days of 1982 was a severe deadly cold air outbreak in which the temperature in Banner Elk NC on the morning of January 10th 1982 was a staggering 25 below zero. Below zero temperatures were common in the Carolina Mountains and Foothills during that even. What followed two days later was a widespread snow across 2/3rd of the state... 11 people died from that massive outbreak, then late in February 82 was another signifcant event for the Western half of the state where 3-6 inches fell along the I-85 cooridor and more along the escarpment.

1993 featured another big snow event on December 21st, which blanked the foothills and mountains with anywhere from 6 inches in the South Mountain Range to as much as 22 inches up close to Mt.Mitchell. Enough snow stayed on the groud to constitute a White Christmas. What followed later that winter was a devistating Ice Storm on Feb 10 and 11th that pretty much paralyzed the western half of the state. Ice accumulations along the I-40 cooridor west of Winston-Salem to Asheville were between 1-2 inches. The result was a storm that pretty much shut the region down, massive power outages occcured due to the weight of the ice.

After brousing through this valuable data, I've come to the conclusion, like many of the follow Tarheels on the forum the past couple weeks, that the pre-seasonal forecast for this part of the country could be in serious jeopardy. History is obviously telling us that we're in store for another major event sometime before this winter is over...given the average of the three analogs, mid to late january looks like a common timeframe.

[eyewall]

We had a white Christmas in Southern PInes in 1999 and a month later we all know what happened .

[HKY_WX]

I remember the Feb 10-11, 94 icestorm. That icestorm along with the 96, 02, and 05 icestorms really stand out. The 94 icestorm lasted for a long time and if I remember right, surface temperatures where in the upper teens during the freezing rain? You cansee the setup below. Notice the huge arctic airmass over the northeast with the HP setup.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1994.html

[strongwxnc]

Great read Dan. Really cool the local paper to my North is running this story!

[ICEAGE NOW]

alot of the old weather folks use to say, the track of the first big snow storm, the other's will follow as well .

So, if this saying is true, more big storms coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and riding up the east coast thru the winter.

I still think this winter will be one for the record books, because of the volcanos this past year ( Iceland ), low sunspots, -NAO , strong jet streams coming togeather to develope these monster storms.

just my thoughts, I'm just a weather nut, been one for most of my 48 years, but no Met. .

P.S. my dad says he remember the Dec.1947 white Christmas, here in the piedmont of N.C., he's 74 .

Great write up by the the way for the start of this post.

[Isopycnic]

We had a white Christmas in Southern PInes in 1999 and a month later we all know what happened .

I was just going to mention that snow...

[mercurydime]

neighbor-man dan gets props for subject matter and in his attempts to bring something to local media actually worth reading/talking about; and obviously done in a thorough, erudite manner.

i'll be checking it out today...

great post!

[jburns]

We had a white Christmas in Southern PInes in 1999 and a month later we all know what happened .

Could be bad for Atlanta. The last time they had a white Christmas, Sherman burned it to the ground.

[Rankin5150]

GREAT POST Dan! This is a great piece of history. I learn something new everyday here! Love It! Thanks for giving the board props as well, for the last article (saw that in another post or thread).

[MichaelJ]

With the current La Nina pattern, historically we have a front loaded winter followed by a big flip after Christmas to a mild zonal flow pattern with storms riding up to the midwest, and missing us. We tend to be dry and mild in these type of winters after Jan.1st and I see no reason to think this one will not follow suit. However with the PDO now in a cool phase and the AMO trending to a cool phase, I think it likely we will start seeing more overall cold and snowy winters for the next 15-20 years, especially if the Solar cycles stay suppressed like this one has. Every winter will see periods of mild and cold and the timing and track of the storms will determine who and whether us in the south get any snow or unfortunately ice.

[Wow]

The AO is set to plummet again.. anything could happen

[dalejr88]

The AO is set to plummet again.. anything could happen

Boy i hope something does happen. The threads are about dead. LOL

[Cheeznado]

Not too impressed with the next 2 weeks or so- the AO and NAO are forecast to be negative, but from what I am seeing on the ensemble runs of late the Pacific will not be cooperating at all- looks like a warm up with rain followed by a minor-moderate cool down with more rain chances, MAYBE a minor ice event in there somewhere, but I think we are done with snow for a couple of weeks at least. Who knows after that, anything is possible.

[ICEAGE NOW]

I did a little research and the last big white Christmas here in the piedmont was 1947, that same year there was snow in the NorthEast U.S. in June and frost as late as July, the UK had one of their wrost winters on record in 1947, below are some pictures of the winter of 47 in the UK, could this be a sign of things to come this winter ? I thought this was interesting.

http://62.18.15.69/g...ges/ppage40.htm

[IWC]

Great info I'm hoping your on the right track and there is more to follow for the rest of the winter!!!