nzucker Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 and also the regeneration of the night crew watching the 6z gfs and nam runs lol I think I am, unofficially, two nights from staying up for 6z runs. Definitely seems to be a lot of potential as another NAO block develops and slides west over Canada at the same time we see the development of a southern stream shortwave. Looks plenty cold for everyone involved since basically all of Canada's cold air has been rerouted to the East, what little is left of it, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The Euro is kicking out that SW low at 168-192 really fast wrt to all the other guidance. My question is, where is the kicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 and also the regeneration of the night crew watching the 6z gfs and nam runs lol 6z NAM is easy... 6z GFS is another creature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 6z NAM is easy... 6z GFS is another creature. You're telling me..I had trouble staying up even when the storm was on it's way. Thanks for texting me the 06z GFS a few of those nights by the way, bud. I now consider it good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The Euro is kicking out that SW low at 168-192 really fast wrt to all the other guidance. My question is, where is the kicker? Odd to me considering it's tendency to keep energy there too long. The kicker may be the pattern--very fast flow across the CONUS in general. But you're right..most models have that ULL rotting in the SW states for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Oh man, another one. Can't wait, seems similar to the last storm with the timing and phase interaction (northern stream s/w/south stream) but the PV just hinders this event...plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 The Euro is kicking out that SW low at 168-192 really fast wrt to all the other guidance. My question is, where is the kicker? hr 150-162 it has a storm in between hawaii and the cali coast, which pumps a ridge up that looks like is aiding to eject it out, as the storm in the pacific moves east. Could this be the culprit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 A bit off topic, but my friend asked me what first comes to mind when I think of the Dec 26, 2010 blizzard..and my response was "INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 You're telling me..I had trouble staying up even when the storm was on it's way. Thanks for texting me the 06z GFS a few of those nights by the way, bud. I now consider it good luck. NP. BTW, I don't have battery on my phone right now... I probably should charge it... so if u sent a text, it's the reason I haven't responded. I have selected my schedule for winter term (which begins on Tuesday) to not have a class earlier than 1:45 p.m. so I can stay on late night crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 A bit off topic, but my friend asked me what first comes to mind when I think of the Dec 26, 2010 blizzard..and my response was "INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES..." the last minute 50 mile shift east that sent my snow bands to you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I have selected my schedule for winter term (which begins on Tuesday) to not have a class earlier than 1:45 p.m. so I can stay on late night crew. This is when you know you're addicted to meteorology...and NCEP and ECMWF have taken over your life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 A bit off topic, but my friend asked me what first comes to mind when I think of the Dec 26, 2010 blizzard..and my response was "INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES..." i didn't and still don't get what they were doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 i didn't and still don't get what they were doing. They were probably payed off by the NYC Sanitation Department to delay the word of the storm Just ask algreek or sundog...did you hear the streets arent plowed? Just wanted to make sure you knew in case you didn't read one of the 15 threads it was posted in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Odd to me considering it's tendency to keep energy there too long. The kicker may be the pattern--very fast flow across the CONUS in general. But you're right..most models have that ULL rotting in the SW states for a week. hr 150-162 it has a storm in between hawaii and the cali coast, which pumps a ridge up that looks like is aiding to eject it out, as the storm in the pacific moves east. Could this be the culprit? Euro is definitely farther S with the Pac NW S/W and apparently it is just enough to disrupt the upstream height field in the SW low to kick it out. That said, it is weird how it progresses that SW low into a very non-favorable confluent flow 168-192 with no detrimental effect on it. Interesting potential event, but those cutoffs are tricky bastards for the models to handle, especially this one since there will be a "phase" between two cutoffs at 72-96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 A bit off topic, but my friend asked me what first comes to mind when I think of the Dec 26, 2010 blizzard..and my response was "INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES..." I just talked to my friend in Boulder, he works at NCAR and is from the EC, and we got a good laugh discussing the silliness of that HPC decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Euro is definitely farther S with the Pac NW S/W and apparently it is just enough to disrupt the upstream height field in the SW low to kick it out. That said, it is weird how it progresses that SW low into a very non-favorable confluent flow 168-192 with no detrimental effect on it. Interesting potential event, but those cutoffs are tricky bastards for the models to handle, especially this one since there will be a "phase" between two cutoffs at 72-96 hours. You're right about it being a weird evolution. I'm surprised the s/w doesn't weaken as it gets embedded into the flow over the US ejecting eastward from MX. The GFS is much more dominant with the PV and the s/w just rots over the southwest US. Certainly a viable solution..we have a long ways to go with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 They were probably payed off by the NYC Sanitation Department to delay the word of the storm Just ask algreek or sundog...did you hear the streets arent plowed? Just wanted to make sure you knew in case you didn't read one of the 15 threads it was posted in. During stormmode times, the 6z crew is honestly the best..Quality over quantity and no weenie posts haha Lets roll -- Round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 wow, that is just impressive, i dont know if i have ever seen purples in the baffin island area in that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 You're right about it being a weird evolution. I'm surprised the s/w doesn't weaken as it gets embedded into the flow over the US ejecting eastward from MX. The GFS is much more dominant with the PV and the s/w just rots over the southwest US. Certainly a viable solution..we have a long ways to go with this one. CMC prolly won't be right, but it shows a retrograding cutoff. Interesting because if the CMC did kick out that low, the overall look would be favorable were the kicked out SW phase with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 i dont know if i have ever seen purples in the baffin island area in that timeframe It was there no longer than two weeks ago. It's amazing to see the pattern try to repeat itself like this, but according to most mid range modeling, it's happening..at least to some extent. Obviously the pattern will never be exactly the same, but the longewave pattern, height fields..and height departure anomalies are pretty darn close. Hopefully we can yield some similar results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 CMC prolly won't be right, but it shows a retrograding cutoff. Interesting because if the CMC did kick out that low, the overall look would be favorable were the kicked out SW low phase with the northern stream. That's actually a weird but pretty cool solution to watch unfold. When you loop it, you can see the Pac Ridge just build from west to east over the top of the retrograding ULL over the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 During stormmode times, the 6z crew is honestly the best..Quality over quantity and no weenie posts haha Lets roll -- Round 2 Strongly agree. For now we can analyze 240 hr extrapolations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 what also may help, which was the case for the last event the mjo is trying to head back towards phase 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 That's actually a weird but pretty cool solution to watch unfold. When you loop it, you can see the Pac Ridge just build from west to east over the top of the retrograding ULL over the southwest. It would be weird, and prolly won't happen haha. Honestly not even sure how the CMC retrogrades it because it is advecting very small values of planetary vorticity on the backside of the low...I doubt it will retrograde like that. That said, I am rooting for another EC hit. After this plains storm, we are dead in the water for a long time over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 It would be weird, and prolly won't happen haha. Honestly not even sure how the CMC retrogrades it because it is advecting very small values of planetary vorticity on the backside of the low...I doubt it will retrograde like that. That said, I am rooting for another EC hit. After this plains storm, we are dead in the water for a long time over here. yea usually whats good for us, is bad for you. Unless its a clipper or a west to east bowling ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I'm about to hit the sack..have a rad New Years guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 yea usually whats good for us, is bad for you. Unless its a clipper or a west to east bowling ball. This storm was mostly a big disappointment except for the folks in ND/SD and western MN. The double wave solution did not play well for us. We needed this storm to come in one big chunk with rapid non-linear amplification and a bombed plains low. Instead we got a dual wave solution with a torching today and another torching tomorrow. I love intense storms like this one now, but we had a lot of potential. Oh well. Back to your EC discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I'm about to hit the sack..have a rad New Years guys. Happy New Years! Don't drink too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 This storm was mostly a big disappointment except for the folks in ND/SD and western MN. The double wave solution did not play well for us. We needed this storm to come in one big chunk with rapid non-linear amplification and a bombed plains low. Instead we got a dual wave solution with a torching today and another torching tomorrow. I love intense storms like this one now, but we had a lot of potential. Oh well. You drew me back in for one more post. I would be extremely annoyed if I lived in ND/SD/MN given the potential here..you can see the first shortwave flying northeast currently and the new cyclongenesis near the TX Panhandle. The second wave will probably still produce some good snows but man, what a load of potential you have here that may have not been totally realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 You drew me back in for one more post. I would be extremely annoyed if I lived in ND/SD/MN given the potential here..you can see the first shortwave flying northeast currently and the new cyclongenesis near the TX Panhandle. The second wave will probably still produce some good snows but man, what a load of potential you have here that may have not been totally realized. You just said it! I mentioned in our forums too, but the dual wave solution doesn't add up. In other words, the first wave is a killer, and the second wave coming in has MUCH less potential energy to work with. And guess which one was way more impressive with way more potential? The second ejecting PV. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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