CooL Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Man its so close, everything happens just a tad late, but it sure is showing the potential also at 222, another strong shortwave is entering the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 tombo, how far north is the precip on 210? 8 1/2 days is better than 10 days away. about to pa turnpike, the pv is to far south its over norther maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 its close, it gets lgt precip up to pa turnpike, the 50/50 low just squashes it south...hr 216 has a sub 968 low bout 150 miles east of orf...lol hr 222 hAS a sub 958 about 300 miles east of lewes del Sounds similar to the 12z Euro except the 12z had northern stream involvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 the carolinas and se va get hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Sounds similar to the 12z Euro except the 12z had northern stream involvement. yea pretty much, but the 12z didn't phase it as well as the 0z did here. it really bombs the low out sub 960. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 the carolinas and se va get hit hard I think we are seeing a trend this season. The areas with the greatest snowfall deficit are coming on strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 yea pretty much, but the 12z didn't phase it as well as the 0z did here. it really bombs the low out sub 960. Sounds like timing is everything. Phasing occurred earlier on the 0z and yet it is further suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yeah the 50/50 low is squashing the heights along the east coast but nonetheless, a great sign 200 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yeah the 50/50 low is squashing the heights along the east coast but nonetheless, a great sign 200 hrs out The weekend rule? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yeah the 50/50 low is squashing the heights along the east coast but nonetheless, a great sign 200 hrs out you got the weekend rule in effect also lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 you got the weekend rule in effect also lol Scary, read my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 just need the pv to move further north. The ridge axis looks great for a storm to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 you got the weekend rule in effect also lol that is so funny hahaha - this is the storm alot of people are chirping about too so we'll see where the models are at after new years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Another miss? Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I think we are seeing a trend this season. The areas with the greatest snowfall deficit are coming on strong yea I don't mind seeing NC and southeast VA get snow considering last year DC, Baltimore, Philly, and New York all had way above normal snowfall and New York especially has been WAY above climo for snowfall since 2000. Its nice to see Richmond south get some fun for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 All we can really derive at this point is that a threat exists and the pattern looks favorable. Exact tracks at 192-240hrs are useless. Heck, during this last event exact tracks 48 hours out were useless. Pooches were being screwed at 60 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 wowsers, thats impressive for just being east of orf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Another miss? Unreal. You guys need an overrunning pattern to set up that gets some heavy snow up to you. I'm not sure the coastals are going to make up the deficit for interior PA this winter. You need some attempts at lake cutters which transfer off the coast, and some nasty clipper events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Another miss? Unreal. dude the NAO is WAY too negative for your area. For central and northern interior PA you want a pattern with a weakly to at most moderate negative NAO. You can even do well with a neutral or slightly positive NAO with the right trough axis or with good cold air source and overunning patterns. A severe negative NAO is good for RIchmond, DC, Philly, and sometimes NYC but not into the interior northeast. I was in Hazleton in 1998 and we had over 50" of snow that winter when Philly and NYC got under 10" and mostly rain all winter. You need the NAO to relax some if you want a major snowstorm where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 You guys need an overrunning pattern to set up that gets some heavy snow up to you. I'm not sure the coastals are going to make up the deficit for interior PA this winter. You need some attempts at lake cutters which transfer off the coast, and some nasty clipper events. This winter seems to feature a dearth of both of those kind of systems--we're seeing either immediately on or off shore, or waaaay to the west of us. Unfortunate for small events, but when we get an event... it's big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Wow...this run is actually really close to developing a large noreaster and hooking it north up the coast. The surface low comes straight out of the gulf again, hooks north to the coast of SC at sub 996mb..and then just misses getting tugged north and slides northeast while deepening rapidly. If you're in DCA-PHL-NYC I would certainly be intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I think something seems off about the surface low placement in relationship to the baroclinic zone. The low would probably be closer to the true arctic boundary. For some reason the euro keeps the low disconnected somewhat. Upper levels support the low position but the surface baroclinic zone does not. Something has to give but it could be wrong either way. At this far a lead time its all a crapshoot anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I think something seems off about the surface low placement in relationship to the baroclinic zone. The low would probably be closer to the true arctic boundary. For some reason the euro keeps the low disconnected somewhat. Upper levels support the low position but the surface baroclinic zone does not. Something has to give but it could be wrong either way. At this far a lead time its all a crapshoot anyways. It's just a bit fast with the H5 depiction as the shortwave digs southeast through the Plains. The H5 cuts off over the M/A and then south of the 40/70. So it's really probably a few hours away from showing a huge hit. What else is new so far with every threat this season...lol. One worked out (here), one didnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Here's a good shot at 168..you can see the robust N stream feature over the NW... as well as the strong S stream digging into MX. The west coast ridge amplifies after this hour..and the entire thing phases and cuts off off the coast. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/f216.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 This looked pretty good on the GFS too....we've got another retrograding NAO of record-strength....begin the sleepless nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 This looked pretty good on the GFS too....we've got another retrograding NAO of record-strength....begin the sleepless nights ill take it. Its been really boring lately, nothing to track or anything. All you can take from tonights run is that there is potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 This looked pretty good on the GFS too....we've got another retrograding NAO of record-strength....begin the sleepless nights I posted about this a few days ago...but when I saw this on the ECMWF and GFS guidance I nearly fell out of my chair. If the pattern evolves as predicted there are going to be a lot of happy weenies in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 I posted about this a few days ago...but when I saw this on the ECMWF and GFS guidance I nearly fell out of my chair. If the pattern evolves as predicted there are going to be a lot of happy weenies in this subforum. and also the regeneration of the night crew watching the 6z gfs and nam runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 and also the regeneration of the night crew watching the 6z gfs and nam runs lol Yeah..I've taken a few nights off Actually I've taken a few nights to have a few drinks. Me posting in that state would probably create a subforum filled with potential future blackmail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 wowsers, thats impressive for just being east of orf For sure. One inch better phase between the jets and it's a bomb all the way up. As is it would likely even correct north with time. How often do you ever see 960mb lows that far south in winter? Again, the main takeaway from the run seems to be that there is a threat for around 240 hours out, and the overall pattern looks favorable again for another winter storm. Specific tracks at this juncture are pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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