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Potential winter threats


tombo82685

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its close, it gets lgt precip up to pa turnpike, the 50/50 low just squashes it south...hr 216 has a sub 968 low bout 150 miles east of orf...lol hr 222 hAS a sub 958 about 300 miles east of lewes del

Sounds similar to the 12z Euro except the 12z had northern stream involvement.

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I think we are seeing a trend this season. The areas with the greatest snowfall deficit are coming on strong Snowman.gif

yea I don't mind seeing NC and southeast VA get snow considering last year DC, Baltimore, Philly, and New York all had way above normal snowfall and New York especially has been WAY above climo for snowfall since 2000. Its nice to see Richmond south get some fun for a change.

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Another miss? Unreal.

dude the NAO is WAY too negative for your area. For central and northern interior PA you want a pattern with a weakly to at most moderate negative NAO. You can even do well with a neutral or slightly positive NAO with the right trough axis or with good cold air source and overunning patterns. A severe negative NAO is good for RIchmond, DC, Philly, and sometimes NYC but not into the interior northeast. I was in Hazleton in 1998 and we had over 50" of snow that winter when Philly and NYC got under 10" and mostly rain all winter. You need the NAO to relax some if you want a major snowstorm where you are.

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You guys need an overrunning pattern to set up that gets some heavy snow up to you. I'm not sure the coastals are going to make up the deficit for interior PA this winter. You need some attempts at lake cutters which transfer off the coast, and some nasty clipper events.

This winter seems to feature a dearth of both of those kind of systems--we're seeing either immediately on or off shore, or waaaay to the west of us. Unfortunate for small events, but when we get an event... it's big.

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Wow...this run is actually really close to developing a large noreaster and hooking it north up the coast. The surface low comes straight out of the gulf again, hooks north to the coast of SC at sub 996mb..and then just misses getting tugged north and slides northeast while deepening rapidly. If you're in DCA-PHL-NYC I would certainly be intrigued.

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I think something seems off about the surface low placement in relationship to the baroclinic zone. The low would probably be closer to the true arctic boundary. For some reason the euro keeps the low disconnected somewhat. Upper levels support the low position but the surface baroclinic zone does not. Something has to give but it could be wrong either way. At this far a lead time its all a crapshoot anyways.

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I think something seems off about the surface low placement in relationship to the baroclinic zone. The low would probably be closer to the true arctic boundary. For some reason the euro keeps the low disconnected somewhat. Upper levels support the low position but the surface baroclinic zone does not. Something has to give but it could be wrong either way. At this far a lead time its all a crapshoot anyways.

It's just a bit fast with the H5 depiction as the shortwave digs southeast through the Plains. The H5 cuts off over the M/A and then south of the 40/70. So it's really probably a few hours away from showing a huge hit. What else is new so far with every threat this season...lol. One worked out (here), one didnt.

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This looked pretty good on the GFS too....we've got another retrograding NAO of record-strength....begin the sleepless nights Snowman.gif

I posted about this a few days ago...but when I saw this on the ECMWF and GFS guidance I nearly fell out of my chair. If the pattern evolves as predicted there are going to be a lot of happy weenies in this subforum.

test8.gif

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wowsers, thats impressive for just being east of orf

For sure. One inch better phase between the jets and it's a bomb all the way up. As is it would likely even correct north with time. How often do you ever see 960mb lows that far south in winter?

Again, the main takeaway from the run seems to be that there is a threat for around 240 hours out, and the overall pattern looks favorable again for another winter storm. Specific tracks at this juncture are pointless.

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