am19psu Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Ahh okayy. Sorry about that, my bad. No worries. It's good to talk about. I sent a message to dtk. He knows more about that stuff than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 No worries. It's good to talk about. I sent a message to dtk. He knows more about that stuff than I do. I think that whole thing came about from dt, when he would always say because of the gfs cold bias it would push everything so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I think that whole thing came about from dt, when he would always say because of the gfs cold bias it would push everything so far south. Haha I think that's what I had in my mind Tom. I remember him constantly saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2wheelin Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 From DT's facebook: **ALERT 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL SHOW COASTAL LOW ALONG NC COAST JAN 7-8 ... FLOWED BY EXTREME -- near ZERO temps & STRONG N WINDS *** more to follow in 45 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I think that whole thing came about from dt, when he would always say because of the gfs cold bias it would push everything so far south. Haha I think that's what I had in my mind Tom. I remember him constantly saying that. Check out the the two penultimate boxes here: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#GFS But again, that's prior to the upgrade in July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 No worries. It's good to talk about. I sent a message to dtk. He knows more about that stuff than I do. Honestly, some of the people on here look at things like this more closely than I do (in terms of case by case evaluation...I look mostly at bulk stats/verification until people point out specific examples to me). Having said that, I agree with your previous comment about the GFS summer upgrade, especially since the sign of the bias (temperature/height) has actually changed in some parts of the atmosphere. I haven't thought much about how this might manifest itself in terms of development (over developing versus suppressed, etc.). We are sort of learning about specific behavior like this in real-time, since this NH winter seems to be significantly different than the test winters we ran through prior to implementation (i.e. 0809 and 0910). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Check out the the two penultimate boxes here: http://www.hpc.ncep....stext.shtml#GFS But again, that's prior to the upgrade in July yea i see the one where it says prediction of southward movement of cold air overdone. Wouldn't that kind of result in a se bias of pushing storm off to far south do to its bias of bringing down the cold air to far south and to strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 yea i see the one where it says prediction of southward movement of cold air overdone. Wouldn't that kind of result in a se bias of pushing storm off to far south do to its bias of bringing down the cold air to far south and to strong? Yeah. It gives conflicting signals. Either way, I'm not sure either of those are relevant anymore (at least if they are, they need to be reconfirmed, imo). The convective and radiative upgrades really made a big difference in the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 To me, the likely outcome based upon what the Euro is showing here is that there will be a phase between the northern and southern streams and the storm will likely come further up the coast, affecting people further north as well. The problem is that no model can depict those possibilities with much accuracy past 7 days. I believe that future runs of the Euro will start to further hone in on this possibility over the next few runs. Look at the Euro at 240 hrs if you have access to it at this period. It has what appears to be a transfer to the coast or some type of elongated trough with a precip max extending inland from Cape May, NJ to almost Buffalo, NY. My best guess is that this is an error, but it is showing the true potential of a full phase with the northern stream that would bring this storm northward from Cape Hatteras to off the NJ Coast, in similar fashion to what just happened with this last storm. The model just cannot get the details right this far out. Remember all the trouble it had getting the details correct with the last storm. It also showed a storm heading out to sea after getting to Cape Hatteras. We all know how that ended up. I expect something similar this time as well. This is my read on what the model is indicating. From HPC: MID LEVEL BLOCKING WITH A LARGE VERY STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY RETURNS TO NERN CANADA WITH A DEEP VORTEX LOCKING IN OVER ONTARIO AS PER 8-10 DAY ECMWF AND GFS/CMC MEANS. STRONG SRN STREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU SRN TX INDUCING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND BRING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE CMC AND ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 GFS wants to sit the polar vortex right on top of us during our potential storm timerame and it cuts off everything i think its bias is still raging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Go with the EC in this time frame. Heck, even the NOGAPS shows some potential in this time-frame, and that is saying something. GFS wants to sit the polar vortex right on top of us during our potential storm timerame and it cuts off everything i think its bias is still raging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 GFS still says there is no threat for any snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 GFS still says there is no threat for any snow.... ???? big time threat at 192 hr, it just slides ots because of the PV sitting ontop of us like the gfs always does past 200 hrs looks like a threat to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 ???? big time threat at 192 hr, it just slides ots because of the PV sitting ontop of us like the gfs always does past 200 hrs looks like a threat to me I think I said " The GFS says there is no threat for any snow" http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_192s.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_204s.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_216s.gif Which the above images imply there is no threat on the 00z GFS because it slides well out to sea... If this were coming up the coast similar to what the ECM showed i would consider it a threat but as of right now the model is saying its a no go..does not mean I am implying its correct but i also would not consider it a threat....per this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I think I said " The GFS says there is no threat for any snow" http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_192s.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_204s.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_216s.gif Which the above images imply there is no threat on the 00z GFS because it slides well out to sea... If this were coming up the coast similar to what the ECM showed i would consider it a threat but as of right now the model is saying its a no go..does not mean I am implying its correct but i also would not consider it a threat....per this model. i guess we just have different views on the word "threat" because when i look at the 500mb map and Not the surface map i see a big time threat, but the gfs messes it up with usual garbage..who knows, the gfs could still have a cold/supression bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 i guess we just have different views on the word "threat" because when i look at the 500mb map and Not the surface map i see a big time threat, but the gfs messes it up with usual garbage..who knows, the gfs could still have a cold/supression bias The models are all over the place essentially... Here is the GGEM at 168 http://www.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_PN_168_0000.gif Has a low over NE PA and another low off the coast it would appear & then later on at the next time period... http://www.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_PN_204_0000.gif http://www.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_PN_216_0000.gif So the GFS is forming something in the south while the GGEM has more of a clipper type low moving south and then eastwards and off the coast.... To me its more about the pattern then the models and there individual solutions.... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 The models are all over the place essentially... Here is the GGEM at 168 http://www.meteocent...PN_168_0000.gif Has a low over NE PA and another low off the coast it would appear & then later on at the next time period... http://www.meteocent...PN_204_0000.gif http://www.meteocent...PN_216_0000.gif So the GFS is forming something in the south while the GGEM has more of a clipper type low moving south and then eastwards and off the coast.... To me its more about the pattern then the models and there individual solutions.... . what the ggem is showing there looks almost like what the 12z euro has. Coastal low off hse that moves east while a northern stream feature tracks over the area bringing in mod precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 what the ggem is showing there looks almost like what the 12z euro has. Coastal low off hse that moves east while a northern stream feature tracks over the area bringing in mod precip. Are you referencing this hour? It is similar I think but the ECM seemed to have a more defined area of low pressure off Hatteras where the GGEM seems to be lacking that... just using the ECM map to show the difference in a more defined low south of Hatteras.. Anyways, ECM is running and lets see what solution comes from the grab bag of models tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Are you referencing this hour? I know they are not the same time period but just using the ECM map to show the difference in a more defined low off Hatteras.. Anyways, ECM is running and lets see what solution comes from the grab bag of models tonight.. No, the storm before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 No, the storm before that. Oh i was under the impression that the 12 Z ECM had a northern stream system(from Duluth) that dropped moderate to heavy precipitation from DC to NYC at the same time it had to low go off of Hatteras which would have been between 228-240 hrs..I was not aware that there was a system between 144 and 168 hrs as the maps would not imply anything from 12 Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Oh i was under the impression that the 12 Z ECM had a northern stream system(from Duluth) b that dropped moderate to heavy precipitation from DC to NYC at the same time it had to low go off of Hatteras which would have been between 228-240 hrs..I was not aware that there was a system between 144 and 168 hrs as the maps would not imply anything from 12 Z... the time frames don't match up, but the overall jist of what happens is pretty close. Euro is hr 234-240, ggem is 168-180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 the time frames don't match up, but the overall jist of what happens is pretty close. Euro is hr 234-240, ggem is 168-180 Anything interesting on tonight's Euro, Tom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Anything interesting on tonight's Euro, Tom? out to hr 168...nothing before that...but things are starting to get a little more interesting at hr 168 with some northern stream energy dropping into montana and southern stream energy over the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 hr 198 has a sub 996 over sw ga, the northern stream has phased in, question is how far north is it coming because the 50/50 low is north of maine by a couple hundred miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 hour 204 has a 992mb coming up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Hour 210 the trough is neg and the low is bombing out off Hatteras...wow haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 hr 210 sub 976 on hse.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yay another MECS on the Euro!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 hr 210 sub 976 on hse.... tombo, how far north is the precip on 210? 8 1/2 days is better than 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yay another MECS on the Euro!! its close, it gets lgt precip up to pa turnpike, the 50/50 low just squashes it south...hr 216 has a sub 968 low bout 150 miles east of orf...lol hr 222 hAS a sub 958 about 300 miles east of lewes del Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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