Potential winter threats

[CTWeatherFreak]

18z gfs still going with that wave a long the front. Looks like a decent hit to sne...

We could use it, after the relative shafting this last one gave us in this area!

[ag3]

18z gfs still going with that wave a long the front. Looks like a decent hit to sne...

It also gives NYC about .15" when surface temp is below 32 and 850's below as well.

Probably a sloppy inch.

[NEG NAO]

It also gives NYC about .15" when surface temp is below 32 and 850's below as well.

Probably a sloppy inch.

will be a mess in the suburbs with the poorly plowed roads melting snow - standing water clogged drains then turns to snow for a few hours and freezes monday morning ......

[tombo82685]

18z gfs indiv ens pretty much in board with the op on a wave forming along the coast and riding up the front

here is the hr 180 with the possible overunning evnt.

[tombo82685]

nothing really brewing on the gfs tonight. ggem looks interesting at hr 144 with a 1015 storm over ark...

[hudsonvalley21]

OKX going with a icy slop up this way Sat night and Sun nite.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRES AND SNOW COVER WILL KEEP SFC TEMPS COOL ON SAT...WHICH IN

TURN WILL RESULT IN TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE

INTERIOR AFTER DARK. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...LIGHT

PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THE

POTENTIAL THEREFORE EXISTS FOR -FZRA. THE COASTS AND METRO APPEAR TO

BE ALL -RA ATTM. HAVE INCLUDED FZRA IN THE FCST. THE FZRA THREAT

WILL EXIST INTO SUN MORNING.

MODELS THEN ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG THE COLD

FRONT OFFSHORE SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE

SYSTEM...POTENTIAL FOR A RASN MIX CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE

INTERIOR WITH ALL RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW

COASTS/METRO. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LOW INDICATES THAT ANY

ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ADVISORY LEVEL OR LESS ATTM.

AS THE H5 PATTERN BECOMES CYCLONIC OVER ERN CANADA MON-

WED...SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE FCST.

[tombo82685]

ggem at hr 240, shows potential we have in this pattern

[green tube]

DT likes that threat.

[tombo82685]

pretty much seasonable to slightly below norm on the eurp.. post hr 240 looks very interesting, it has the pv dropping down into the midwest with a storm in the gulf...

[nzucker]

pretty much seasonable to slightly below norm on the eurp.. post hr 240 looks very interesting, it has the pv dropping down into the midwest with a storm in the gulf...

Looks very cold at Day 10 with -12C 850s in NYC and much colder air (<-20C) coming into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Nice pattern shown with a -NAO present from Day 5 onwards and a +PNA developing at Day 7 and amplifying. This would certainly be a good set-up for another coastal storm with the energy in the Gulf and the potent PV supplying the cold and phasing potential. It looks as if January will be colder and snowier than expected for a strong La Niña.

[tombo82685]

Looks very cold at Day 10 with -12C 850s in NYC and much colder air (<-20C) coming into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Nice pattern shown with a -NAO present from Day 5 onwards and a +PNA developing at Day 7 and amplifying. This would certainly be a good set-up for another coastal storm with the energy in the Gulf and the potent PV supplying the cold and phasing potential. It looks as if January will be colder and snowier than expected for a strong La Niña.

hear is the day 10 event. Im not sure why it has a low over dc, because there is no precip associated with it at all. Everything is in the gulf. But you can clearly see the making of what could be a threat. You can see the pv sliding down on the back side amplifying the pattern

[Ji]

Overrunning event cancel I guess?

[RowanBrandon]

I said a few days ago that the 1/9-1/11 time period is the one to watch. Glad to see some things popping up on the models.

[am19psu]

I'm not really excited about a coastal storm (or even snow period) until after the current 10d time frame. The block over the Atlantic is going to be east based at first and you never really develop a good ridge over the West. BUT, this current "threat" could set the stage for something around mid-month much like the Dec 18 miss did.

[Edge Weather]

The NOGAPS looks interesting from hours 156 to 162 with an over-running type of event and then a low starts to take shape in the Gulf at 180 hrs.

[Weathergun]

If the energy out in the Southwest comes out slower, as many model suggest now, then there is more potential for huge coastal storm sometime between Jan 8th and11th. With the West coast ridge building that weekend. But I think it's also possible for a piece to come out before that, for a overrunning event between Jan 5th and 7th. Still very far out, and we might see models trend back faster.

[IsentropicLift]

From the HPC long range discussion this AM...Miller A??

MID LEVEL BLOCKING AND A LARGE STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY RETURNS

TO NRN CANADA WITH A DEEP VORTEX LOCKING IN OVER ONTARIO AS PER

8-10 DAY ECMWF. STRONG SRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROF WILL SWING THRU

SRN TX INDUCING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IN A MOISTURE

RICH ENVIRONMENT AND BRING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE

SOUTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC SEABOARD OVER

THE NEXT WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE CMC AND ECMWF SUPPORT THIS

SCENARIO.

[Edge Weather]

Nice discussion. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. It is nice to see even the NOGAPS pointing to some possibilities in this time frame.

From the HPC long range discussion this AM...Miller A??

MID LEVEL BLOCKING AND A LARGE STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY RETURNS

TO NRN CANADA WITH A DEEP VORTEX LOCKING IN OVER ONTARIO AS PER

8-10 DAY ECMWF. STRONG SRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROF WILL SWING THRU

SRN TX INDUCING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IN A MOISTURE

RICH ENVIRONMENT AND BRING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE

SOUTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC SEABOARD OVER

THE NEXT WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE CMC AND ECMWF SUPPORT THIS

SCENARIO.

[mattinpa]

Nice discussion. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. It is nice to see even the NOGAPS pointing to some possibilities in this time frame.

So I guess HPC thinks the GFS is too suppressed?

[jrodd321]

So I guess HPC thinks the GFS is too suppressed?

It usually is in this timeframe.

[am19psu]

It usually is in this timeframe.

It is? Usually, I expect to the GFS to be too quick to phase systems, not keep them suppressed.

[rossi]

Any Euro updates today?

Thanks,

Rossi

[tombo82685]

Any Euro updates today?

Thanks,

Rossi

yup, hr 138 has some lgt snow for the area from a northern stream system, doesn;t amt to much....hr 222 has a sub 988 on hse...

[rossi]

yup, hr 138 has some lgt snow for the area from a northern stream system, doesn;t amt to much....hr 222 has a sub 988 on hse...

Tombo - Thanks

[am19psu]

Any Euro updates today?

Thanks,

Rossi

It's got a Gulf low that moves OTS at HSE. The usual EC synoptic players are not in the right spot - the ridge is over the West Coast instead of the Intermountain West and the 50/50 low is at 40/50. It is showing more of a west based North Atlantic block though.

[tombo82685]

hr 228-240 the coastal low moves ots like adam stated, but there is a northern stream feature moving down from the upper midwest that brings mod to hvy precip to the area.

[jrodd321]

It is? Usually, I expect to the GFS to be too quick to phase systems, not keep them suppressed.

I just remember hearing like "GFS is suppressed and out to sea" alot the past couple of winters when the Euro was showing a storm coming up the coast. Look at the GFS the last storm when the euro was showing the bomb in the 168+ time frame. GFS went right out to sea run after run.

[CooL]

hr 228-240 the coastal low moves ots like adam stated, but there is a northern stream feature moving down from the upper midwest that brings mod to hvy precip to the area.

Yeah, almost looks like a phase with the clipper and it produces a random blatch of heavy precip over eastern PA and NJ

my $ is on that NOT happening, but that coastal storm could become a major player over the next week or two

[am19psu]

I just remember hearing like "GFS is suppressed and out to sea" alot the past couple of winters when the Euro was showing a storm coming up the coast. Look at the GFS the last storm when the euro was showing the bomb in the 168+ time frame. GFS went right out to sea run after run.

I mean, you might be right since the upgrade in July, I've not seen any good writeups on it... but prior to that upgrade, the GFS always had a cold/low height bias that resulted in too many/early phases due to northern stream dominance.

[jrodd321]

I mean, you might be right since the upgrade in July, I've not seen any good writeups on it... but prior to that upgrade, the GFS always had a cold/low height bias that resulted in too many/early phases due to northern stream dominance.

Ahh okayy. Sorry about that, my bad.