Potential winter threats

[nzucker]

Yea that's around what I got too. I'll never forget the temps days before that storm. Just brutal cold leading up to it.

We had a very cold January that year despite the fact that much of the winter was fairly mild. Here in Dobbs Ferry, the Hudson River was frozen nearly halfway out with ice floes drifting around the center of the river. It takes some serious cold to develop significant ice in the Hudson; the last time the River froze completely was 1994. Here is a good picture of the partial icing in January 2005, taken for a high school art project I was doing about the Hudson River School:

[Zir0b]

0z GFS indicating blocking regime establishing itself immediately after the lakes cutter with the block retrograding into North-Central Canada similar to what we witnessed a couple weeks ago. This time we also have some semblance of ridging over the west coast. Definitely think there will be something to track after we get the lakes cutter out of the way.

[CooL]

00z euro is definately cooking up something in the long range, but in the end its a 988mb low over new england with rain for everyone verbatim...But that is going to be the threat in the timeframe that alot of people have been harping about...The only thing lacking on the euro is the +PNA to funnel in the northern stream and cold air..

[NaoPos]

We're getting there. The blocking returning is just unreal.. The Euro seems to be more progressive with the pac jet, hence a more zonal flow off the west coast. BUt we're making progress. Seems like the STJ on the GFS want's to start getting involved too with lower heights off the SW coast.

[Snow_Miser]

The 0Z ECMWF shows great potential for this upcoming storm.

[am19psu]

The 0Z ECMWF shows great potential for this upcoming storm.

I'd throw out the 0z ECM. It's an extreme outlier compared to its ensemble members because of its usual bias of hanging back too much energy over the SW around 120-192.

[Weathergun]

I'd throw out the 0z ECM. It's an extreme outlier compared to its ensemble members because of its usual bias of hanging back too much energy over the SW around 120-192.

HPC this morning threw out 0z EC for that reason as it well it's handling for the northern stream. I think something like the 6z GFS is more likely play out. Except maybe not so suppressed. As for the having cold air in place, I think we need to keep the PV elongated or have it split into a 50/50 low, so we don't loose too much confluence:

A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BECOMES SITUATED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA

THIS PERIOD...STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE

SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS ANCHORED IN PLACE BY RIDGING IN/NEAR WESTERN

CANADA. OUTSIDE THE 00Z ECMWF...THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE

SHOWS THIS EVOLVING IDEA. BY MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS DETAIL

ISSUES...WITH ITS SURFACE LOW MOVING NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER

TOO QUICK WHEN COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IT ALSO LOOKS DEEP COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE

GUIDANCE WITH THE CLOSED LOW IT SWINGS INTO NORTHERN BAJA

CALIFORNIA...AND NOT RETROGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH THE VORTEX NEAR

HUDSON BAY. HOWEVER THESE DIFFERENCES CAN BE COMPENSATED FOR BY

INCREASING USE OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEANS. AS SUCH UPDATED HPC

PRELIM BLENDS USE A 50/50 ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN FOR DAYS 3-5

SAT-MON AND A 70/30 BLEND OF ECMWF ENS MEAN/ECMWF FOR DAYS 6 AND 7

TUES/WED.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[SLAM22]

HPC this morning threw out 0z EC for that reason as it well it's handling for the northern stream. I think something like the 6z GFS is more likely play out. Except maybe not so suppressed. As for the having cold air in place, I think we need to keep the PV elongated or have it split into a 50/50 low, so we don't loose too much confluence:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

HPC also threw out the 12z GFS/18z GFS 2 days before the last storm ....just saying

[supermeh]

Looks like a wave of low pressure develops after the cold front passes this weekend. Maybe some wet snow?

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_108l.gif

[Weathergun]

HPC also threw out the 12z GFS/18z GFS 2 days before the last storm ....just saying

It more than 7 days out. So they can throw out as much of models as they want. The 0z Euro was too warm for most of us, anyway

[rossi]

Any Euro analysis for 12Z today?

Colder?

Any storms the next few weeks?

Thanks,

Rossi

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro through 168 hours is well more west with the Greenland block, odds are its not going to show any warmup this run at all with where the block is...it also shows the same type of threat of 100-120 hours the GFS shows but its tough to grasp with 24 hour increments where it shows it exactly.

[rossi]

The Euro through 168 hours is well more west with the Greenland block, odds are its not going to show any warmup this run at all with where the block is...it also shows the same type of threat of 100-120 hours the GFS shows but its tough to grasp with 24 hour increments where it shows it exactly.

Where's Tombo when we need him?

Rossi

[SnowGoose69]

192 hours still shows the Greenland block but the pattern out west is lousy seemingly from the poor graphics to be a split flow pattern with a weak PNA ridge but hard to get much going since anything that heads east would likely shear out.

[am19psu]

192 hours still shows the Greenland block but the pattern out west is lousy seemingly from the poor graphics to be a split flow pattern with a weak PNA ridge but hard to get much going since anything that heads east would likely shear out.

It's colder, but it's still hanging back way too much over the SW. I wouldn't trust anything it is showing right now. The GFS has the cutoff, too, but it is far weaker than the Euro version.

[rossi]

It's colder, but it's still hanging back way too much over the SW. I wouldn't trust anything it is showing right now. The GFS has the cutoff, too, but it is far weaker than the Euro version.

After last weekends storm I don't think anyone trusts the Euro in the sameway it did before.

Rossi

[Edge Weather]

The Euro develops a Western Gulf of Mexico low pressure at 240 hrs as it finally kicks that energy in the SW out toward the Gulf. Would be interesting to see where that goes, but it only goes out to 240 hrs.

[am19psu]

The Euro develops a Western Gulf of Mexico low pressure at 240 hrs as it finally kicks that energy in the SW out toward the Gulf. Would be interesting to see where that goes, but it only goes out to 240 hrs.

Which is again a product of overamplifying the cutoff low in the SW in the 5-8d frame.

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro develops a Western Gulf of Mexico low pressure at 240 hrs as it finally kicks that energy in the SW out toward the Gulf. Would be interesting to see where that goes, but it only goes out to 240 hrs.

You can be sure its going to kick that energy out in reality much faster than that...at 216 you can see a northern stream disturbance over MT...there is definitely a chance at the very end of this run, considering how poor it looked at 168 its more promising at 216.

[Edge Weather]

Are you saying that you think they might phase? If they phase, what would be the likely track?

You can be sure its going to kick that energy out in reality much faster than that...at 216 you can see a northern stream disturbance over MT...there is definitely a chance at the very end of this run, considering how poor it looked at 168 its more promising at 216.

[SnowGoose69]

Are you saying that you think they might phase? If they phase, what would be the likely track?

The potential is there for a storm based on the setup, but of course again the timing would need to be on which is impossible to guess at this range...the track if a significant storm did develop would certainly be an all snow event for the area with the setup over Greenland or the WATL.

[Edge Weather]

Thank you for the information. It does seem that there is potential toward the end of next week. At least we have something to watch.

The potential is there for a storm based on the setup, but of course again the timing would need to be on which is impossible to guess at this range...the track if a significant storm did develop would certainly be an all snow event for the area with the setup over Greenland or the WATL.

[tombo82685]

it has the same solution as the 12z gfs with the hr 120 wave on the front. Like others have said its a litte further east but does bring in precip to the area. Looks like it nmay end as a little snow for the cities and esp north and west.

[tombo82685]

gfs indiv ens members are pretty interesting

[tombo82685]

ggem at hr 180

[rossi]

ggem at hr 180

Tombo,

Here come the long nights again!!!

Rossi

[CooL]

the euro is likely holding the energy in the SW too long but it sure looks interesting, i think there is decent agreement right now for an active pac jet, and that a very strong shortwave will eject onto the west coast again around the 175 hr timeframe...

[SnowGoose69]

The GEM verbatim is a rain event IF it comes far enough north...there is the possibility that could ultimately go south but its hard to tell, there is no big high over New England for overrunning and the NAO appears positive...that said I don't believe the GEM's depiction given the Euro and GFS have the -NAO....only 5 of the 20 individual GEM ensemble members show anything resembling that Op run at 180 hours.

[tombo82685]

Tombo,

Here come the long nights again!!!

Rossi

lol, i hope so, its fun tracking the events. These past nights with nothing really to look forward to have been boring.

[tombo82685]

18z gfs still going with that wave a long the front. Looks like a decent hit to sne...