nzucker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You hit it home here...I had my family talking about the Euro and GFS. Nothing like it. Here we are a few days later..nobody could give two craps what I am doing up at 3am. This is exactly the truth; all my family was asking me about the storm over Christmas and wondering what it would bring. Now it's like, "So why are you interested in meteorology?" Potential for an epic January starting to set up in my opinion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hey you never know... I spent NYE speaking to someone about ensemble modeling... then found out that Doug's sister was roomies with a friend of my sister's... The weather world is bigger than you know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I disagree, man....a Miller A with a PV dropping to HAT......that is a Miller B displaced to the south by blocking that is an anomaly more times over than Earthlingt shoveled his driveway last wknd. Correct. Here's the visual...historic block in Blue, storm producing Miller B shortwave in green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not surprisingly, the Euro ensembles are considerably more tame than the OP run....it pretty much looks like a lot of ensemble means we've seen recently. Redeveloping S of LI or E of NJ and then moving near the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Ensembles look more mundane than the OP (shocker)..but they aren't a total wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think MAG was talking about the 2nd storm , and how that's a miller A but its 3am and i have no clue what is happening, especially after that euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Coming into this 0z run of the Euro I was also a bit more interested in the timeframe of the second threat. Since the 0z Canadian ran a pretty nice miller b solution at around the 180-216hr timeframe I wanted to see if the euro would also jump onto any kind of storm...which of course it does. Euro has it as a straight miller a by the looks. Not sure what to make of the curb stomping the euro has around the 120-144hr timeframe. Def agree that it's probably too robust with dropping the PV all the way down like it does. But something in between the 12z and 0z solution could be attainable with a northern branch system digging enough, hitting the coast and firing up into a decent snow event for phl/nyc, perhaps more toward nyc with the lighter clipper type snows back further west. Should be fun to watch shake out. I'm thinking one of these potential storms ends up delivering a decent event. Yeah my thinking too. ECM right now seems very far south with the Vortex and if you look into Canada it has no negative interactions with the incoming west coast system. I think something relegated more to the NE/NYC region would be more realistic than the monster bomb off the Mid-Atlantic then crawling up the coast. Some of the GFS ensembles hint at the former, and previous GFS runs suggested that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I disagree, man....a Miller A with a PV dropping to HAT......that is a Miller B displaced to the south by blocking that is an anomaly more times over than Earthlight shoveled his driveway last wknd. Ray, I think he's talking about the second storm.... did you think he was talking about the first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The ensembles still throw some precip back here for those who were wondering about details. Nothing too dramatic but the precip basically is northeast of Trenton. The surface low is 988mb..broad and over or maybe a hair east of the 40/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Ensembles look more mundane than the OP (shocker)..but they aren't a total wash. In order to get the mean as amplified as the OP at this extended lead, we'd need some members crushing Fidel Castro's box of cigars with the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i think the met was referring to the 2 storm on the euro as the miller a, not the first. Misread--my bad...but at least now we know for sure the first storm is a Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Ah, that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In order to get the mean as amplified as the OP at this extended lead, we'd need some members crushing Fidel Castro's box of cigars with the PV. I am actually surprised it's bringing precip this far south and west..and the surface low is as deep as 988 at that hour. Pretty cool signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I disagree, man....a Miller A with a PV dropping to HAT......that is a Miller B displaced to the south by blocking that is an anomaly more times over than Earthlight shoveled his driveway last wknd. Coming into this 0z run of the Euro I was also a bit more interested in the timeframe of the second threat. Since the 0z Canadian ran a pretty nice miller b solution at around the 180-216hr timeframe I wanted to see if the euro would also jump onto any kind of storm...which of course it does. Euro has it as a straight miller a by the looks. Yea, def talking about the second storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm going to have to find out more about the Euro ensemble QPF at this range...I haven't seen it show more than 0.25 or so on the means past 120 hours in the brief time I have had access to them. Tonights run show a broad 0.10-0.25" area from Trenton northeast through Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Reading this reminded me that as early as 15 years ago, weather model data wasn't available to the general public, radar data wasn't available to the general public. In fact during severe weather events during the overnight weekend, I had to rely on NOAA weather radio to give a description of the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This is exactly the truth; all my family was asking me about the storm over Christmas and wondering what it would bring. Now it's like, "So why are you interested in meteorology?" Potential for an epic January starting to set up in my opinion.. Do they feel that way about meteorology specifically or science in general? My interest is equal in all the sciences so I dont get this kind of questioning from my family lol, theyre used to me being interested in stuff like that. I love my family and all but when an outsider questions me I adopt a very standoffish attitude of "If you dont know why Im interested in this, you're probably not smart enough to comprehend it anyway" and then I go into a whole spiel about how everyone with an IQ under 140 is dumb to irritate them further lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm going to have to find out more about the Euro ensemble QPF at this range...I haven't seen it show more than 0.25 or so on the means past 120 hours in the brief time I have had access to them. Tonights run show a broad 0.10-0.25" area from Trenton northeast through Southern New England. if it has that, i bet there has to be a couple juicy southern solutions in there. Is this further sw than the 12z ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yea, def talking about the second storm I'm sorry....late....my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I am actually surprised it's bringing precip this far south and west..and the surface low is as deep as 988 at that hour. Pretty cool signal. Yea, you would still get a decent hit and I'd prob still get a big hit. I think that is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 if it has that, i bet there has to be a couple juicy southern solutions in there. Is this further sw than the 12z ens? Yes--and deeper with the surface low/seemingly more organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm sorry....late....my bad. haha its ok, i probably could've worded it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In order to get the mean as amplified as the OP at this extended lead, we'd need some members crushing Fidel Castro's box of cigars with the PV. If this highly anomalous event somehow comes to pass, I'll be even more convinced that its solar related. Im already more than halfway there. The amazing quietude of the sun has already been well documented by both NASA and amateur astronomers who track sunspots-- or the lack thereof lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm more interesting (as seeing I'm down in Va..) how the ensembles looked for the second southern storm. :X GGEM, GFS, both have a storm in that time range of the Euro as well.. just different in details of course. :X I'm expecting nothing from the Miller B earlier on. Just interested in the ensemble look for the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yes--and deeper with the surface low/seemingly more organized. where does it take the vortex? Im assuming along the m/d line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 where does it take the vortex? Im assuming along the m/d line? Pretty much..it's very broad though so it's hard to tell. You can't really take a vortex track from the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm more interesting (as seeing I'm down in Va..) how the ensembles looked for the second southern storm. :X GGEM, GFS, both have a storm in that time range of the Euro as well.. just different in details of course. :X I'm expecting nothing from the Miller B earlier on. Just interested in the ensemble look for the second storm. for the 2nd storm, ric area gets crushed...around 1.5 qpf of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 wow - way over 1,000 posts in this thread maybe we can start looking at the trends in the 84 hr nam tommorrow also, dont think you can discount this run after what the euro did with the last storm when no other model had its back i keep looping the surface and H5, its freakin amazing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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