Potential winter threats

[baroclinic_instability]

0% chance of happening?

does not sound like it

Definitely not zero. The second threat, in some ways, is even more interesting. This one needs a lot of right things to happen first, thankfully we should only need to wait about 24-48 hours as opposed to the last 2 days like the last event.

[earthlight]

It's 230am..here's a zoomed in poor quality version of the Euro at 132 hrs.

A big thanks to SV and their team for these images

[Stebo]

He's from Michigan-- it probably sucks to be there right now. He also said something about the Detroit Lions and I stopped reading at that point.

Hi that was a joke I was making... however the fact is the way the PV drops in is just unrealistic, as mentioned many times after this post.

[eduggs]

OK who hacked the Euro tonight? Day 7 500mb looks sick too. WTF

[A-L-E-X]

Definitely not zero. The second threat, in some ways, is even more interesting. This one needs a lot of right things to happen first, thankfully we should only need to wait about 24-48 hours as opposed to the last 2 days like the last event.

almost sounds like the couplet back in December, when the first storm needed everything to be just right, and then the second one came along and was the big one.

[A-L-E-X]

Hi that was a joke I was making... however the fact is the way the PV drops in is just unrealistic, as mentioned many times after this post.

I know I do think ten superbowls is overdoing it a bit-- I mean, one superbowl is unlikely enough lol

[baroclinic_instability]

almost sounds like the couplet back in December, when the first storm needed everything to be just right, and then the second one came along and was the big one.

Yeah good point. I think Earth said it well with the volatility and general pattern being conducive at some point. The second threat would be interesting because it would be a lot different than any we have seen yet this winter season.

[Stebo]

I know I do think ten superbowls is overdoing it a bit-- I mean, one superbowl is unlikely enough lol

Yes and my 0% chance is absurd too but lets be honest I don't think anyone in their right mind sees this run of the Euro verifying, hell run to run it matches up with none of the previous runs.

[A-L-E-X]

Yes and my 0% chance is absurd too but lets be honest I don't think anyone in their right mind sees this run of the Euro verifying, hell run to run it matches up with none of the previous runs.

the only really positive thing about it is that it makes a trend southward from the GFS possible. Im glad this showed up on the late night run, if this had been the mid day run, the board would have been unreadable for next 6 + hours.

[mattinpa]

Yes and my 0% chance is absurd too but lets be honest I don't think anyone in their right mind sees this run of the Euro verifying, hell run to run it matches up with none of the previous runs.

Not saying it has a high chance, but other mets here aren't discounting it. Plus, maybe we get a big storm anyway with this pattern. This is just one of many possibilities.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's 230am..here's a zoomed in poor quality version of the Euro at 132 hrs

One final note before retiring to visions of three-bunners dancing through my head; this would not be pixy dust like the last event, capable only of assuming dairy cone type statures atop the hoods of cars. No; this would be branch-breaking, tulip-trouncing, Empire State Building-enveloping, car-crushing, back-breaking, weenie-weighing-down cement.

Very meek +pp is modeled on this soloution, rendering this a spring like snow, especially in the urban corridor....power outages would be an issue, here.

[eduggs]

By my eye there are at least 2 GEFS members that show some resemblance to the Euro's diving the PV center into Va. I'm much more interested in the clustering than the mean at this point.

http://raleighwx.ame...z500mbf120.html

http://raleighwx.ame...rs/00zf120.html

[H2Otown_WX]

It's 230am..here's a zoomed in poor quality version of the Euro at 132 hrs

The ECMWF police are coming for you.

[A-L-E-X]

One final note before retiring to visions of three-bunners dancing through my head; this would not be pixy dust like the last event, capable only of assuming dairy cone type statures atop the hoods of cars. No; this would be branch-breaking, tulip-trouncing, Empire State Building-enveloping, car-crushing, back-breaking, weenie-weighing-down cement.

Very meek +pp is modeled on this soloution, rendering this a spring like snow, especially in the urban corridor....power outages would be an issue, here.

I love your use of adjectives lol. I just hope you guys do a much better clean up job than NYC did with the last one, if this materializes.

[earthlight]

One final note before retiring to visions of three-bunners dancing through my head; this would not be pixy dust like the last event, capable only of assuming dairy cone type statures atop the hoods of cars. No; this would be branch-breaking, tulip-trouncing, Empire State Building-enveloping, car-crushing, back-breaking, weenie-weighing-down cement.

Very meek +pp is modeled on this soloution, rendering this a spring like snow, especially in the urban corridor....power outages would be an issue, here.

It's amazing how different the two beasts are. I definitely prefer the last storm...25 F and heavy snow for 6 hours..but I certainly wouldn't deny a plastering snowfall either.

[earthlight]

Here's a discussion I wrote for the blog, just issued a few minutes ago with the overnight forecast package.

http://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/

Long Range

The pattern becomes convoluted and on some models quite anomalous by the end of the week with dramatic differences amongst guidance, leading to a very low confidence forecast. Initially a zonal upper air flow across the region Wednesday and Thursday with fair weather likely..but a chance of snow showers increasing by the end of that period.

The differences begin in the guidance handling of the Polar Vortex which will be situated over Central Canada. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means are in very good agreement on the development of a large -NAO block from Greenland..towards Baffin Island..and then retrograding westward towards Central Canada. This will force the Polar Vortex underneath this block into New England, or as the 00z/03 Euro suggests..into the Mid Atlantic.

The models are struggling immensely with the handling of the specific vorticity and shortwaves rotating around the Polar Vortex. There is general agreement that there will be one stronger feature..which may or may not produce a large system (Miller B-type nature) redeveloping off the coast of the Mid Atlantic or New England. The GEFS means are very mundane with this potential...while the ECMWF/ECMWF Ensembles and to an extent the GGEM are more robust. At this point it is all a moot point..as the shortwaves are not well sampled and the potential remains highly suspect.

That being said..there is more confidence than usual for at least a light snow event..given the fact that the aforementioned blocking is well modeled and will force the PV underneath into or near our latitude. Given that..we included slight chance pops through the weekend. For now..the big storm remains a potential, but an outlier solution.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's amazing how different the two beasts are. I definitely prefer the last storm...25 F and heavy snow for 6 hours..but I certainly wouldn't deny a plastering snowfall either.

I prefer the heavy wet snow, not only because it's more resilient, easy to measure and has a greater capacity to alter the landscape by adhering to all suraces, but because the heavier texture of the snow and warmer temps inherently imply that the coastal boundary is more likely to be close to my area, rather than along the immediate coast. This gives me a better chance at a more prolific snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here's a discussion I wrote for the blog, just issued a few minutes ago with the overnight forecast package.

http://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/

Long Range

The pattern becomes convoluted and on some models quite anomalous by the end of the week with dramatic differences amongst guidance, leading to a very low confidence forecast. Initially a zonal upper air flow across the region Wednesday and Thursday with fair weather likely..but a chance of snow showers increasing by the end of that period.

The differences begin in the guidance handling of the Polar Vortex which will be situated over Central Canada. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means are in very good agreement on the development of a large -NAO block from Greenland..towards Baffin Island..and then retrograding westward towards Central Canada. This will force the Polar Vortex underneath this block into New England, or as the 00z/03 Euro suggests..into the Mid Atlantic.

The models are struggling immensely with the handling of the specific vorticity and shortwaves rotating around the Polar Vortex. There is general agreement that there will be one stronger feature..which may or may not produce a large system (Miller B-type nature) redeveloping off the coast of the Mid Atlantic or New England. The GEFS means are very mundane with this potential...while the ECMWF/ECMWF Ensembles and to an extent the GGEM are more robust. At this point it is all a moot point..as the shortwaves are not well sampled and the potential remains highly suspect.

That being said..there is more confidence than usual for at least a light snow event..given the fact that the aforementioned blocking is well modeled and will force the PV underneath into or near our latitude. Given that..we included slight chance pops through the weekend. For now..the big storm remains a potential, but an outlier solution.

Great piece; very good description of the situation.

[Kingwill]

House money says it's gone by 12z. Would be a nice 15 year anni present, but the setup is highly volatile and you'd think the models will continue to bounce around with this. Many did warn that the big storm solution will pop up occasionally, the question becomes, will it stay?

IDK, Will be interesting cause this time 2 weeks ago was when the Euro Really honked for an all out Blizzard except it kept it for a couple more days before losing it and Getting it back at almost the last minute..

[tombo82685]

I prefer the heavy wet snow, not only because it resilient, easy to measure and has a great capacity to adhere to all suraces and alter the landscape, but because the heavier texture of the snow and warmer temps inherently imply that the coastal boundary is more likely to be close to my area, rather than along the immediate coast.

This gives me a better chance at a more prolific snowfall.

i agree with you here. A wet snowfall that paste to everything is just amazing the photos you can grab from it. Makes every tree look like a cotton tree.

[CooL]

Nice writeup Earthlight

its interesting that inside 100 hrs i can just tell looking at the 500mb map that this was going to be a big run..The 500mb low was much stronger even before it passed over Chicago..Not to mention there is a pretty decent ridge out west to get the bowling ball rolling, and this run was a strike.

[earthlight]

I prefer the heavy wet snow, not only because it's more resilient, easy to measure and has a greater capacity to alter the landscape by adhering to all suraces, but because the heavier texture of the snow and warmer temps inherently imply that the coastal boundary is more likely to be close to my area, rather than along the immediate coast.

This gives me a better chance at a more prolific snowfall.

Very true. This past system reminded me just how much I love how a big snow can alter the landscape. My entire town was brought to a standstill for at least an entire day after the storm. And me, being the snow freak that I am, enjoyed every second of it. There's something amazing about watching the usual hectic pace of our daily lives come to a screeching halt all in the hands of mother nature.

[A-L-E-X]

Nice writeup Earthlight

its interesting that inside 100 hrs i can just tell looking at the 500mb map that this was going to be a big run..The 500mb low was much stronger even before it passed over Chicago..Not to mention there is a pretty decent ridge out west to get the bowling ball rolling, and this run was a strike.

It was interesting, with the last storm, how the ridge got sharper and sharper on each run, until finally it became reality. I think the last storm is why we have so many people ascribing a higher probability to this storm than they normally would. That and the long range pattern which literally no one saw coming.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Very true. This past system reminded me just how much I love how a big snow can alter the landscape. My entire town was brought to a standstill for at least an entire day after the storm. And me, being the snow freak that I am, enjoyed every second of it. There's something amazing about watching the usual hectic pace of our daily lives come to a screeching halt all in the hands of mother nature.

.....and you become an intermediary to those all around you and all things meteorology..... no one cares about the passion most dear to you under normal circumstances, but it suddenly ascends to the top of the charts for a few days.

[Kingwill]

And if the 12Z Euro shows something Similar the around the Clock Model watching will again begin the rest of the Week..

[MAG5035]

Yeah good point. I think Earth said it well with the volatility and general pattern being conducive at some point. The second threat would be interesting because it would be a lot different than any we have seen yet this winter season.

Coming into this 0z run of the Euro I was also a bit more interested in the timeframe of the second threat. Since the 0z Canadian ran a pretty nice miller b solution at around the 180-216hr timeframe I wanted to see if the euro would also jump onto any kind of storm...which of course it does. Euro has it as a straight miller a by the looks.

Not sure what to make of the curb stomping the euro has around the 120-144hr timeframe. Def agree that it's probably too robust with dropping the PV all the way down like it does. But something in between the 12z and 0z solution could be attainable with a northern branch system digging enough, hitting the coast and firing up into a decent snow event for phl/nyc, perhaps more toward nyc with the lighter clipper type snows back further west. Should be fun to watch shake out. I'm thinking one of these potential storms ends up delivering a decent event.

[earthlight]

.....and you become an intermediary to those all around you and all things meteorology..... no one cares about the passion most dear to you under normal circumstances, but it suddenly ascends to the top of the charts for a few days.

You should have seen me at Christmas Eve dinner when the NAM and GFS showed blizzards for my location...people were texting me about initialization errors...I was ready to go mad.

[earthlight]

no one cares about the passion most dear to you under normal circumstances, but it suddenly ascends to the top of the charts for a few days.

You hit it home here...I had my family talking about the Euro and GFS. Nothing like it.

Here we are a few days later..nobody could give two craps what I am doing up at 3am.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Coming into this 0z run of the Euro I was also a bit more interested in the timeframe of the second threat. Since the 0z Canadian ran a pretty nice miller b solution at around the 180-216hr timeframe I wanted to see if the euro would also jump onto any kind of storm...which of course it does. Euro has it as a straight miller a by the looks.

Not sure what to make of the curb stomping the euro has around the 120-144hr timeframe. Def agree that it's probably too robust with dropping the PV all the way down like it does. But something in between the 12z and 0z solution could be attainable with a northern branch system digging enough, hitting the coast and firing up into a decent snow event for phl/nyc, perhaps more toward nyc with the lighter clipper type snows back further west. Should be fun to watch shake out. I'm thinking one of these potential storms ends up delivering a decent event.

I disagree, man....a Miller A with a PV dropping to HAT......that is a Miller B displaced to the south by blocking that is an anomaly more times over than Earthlight shoveled his driveway last wknd.

[earthlight]

Here are two keepers, to be entered into the "mother of god" folder..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/f120.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/f144.gif