earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I def. think the EURO dug the ULL too far south this run. Probably. But if there was a pattern where it could happen, this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Take a look at the degree of blocking retrograding in tandem with the PV and then get back to me with 0% (zero percent) odds. im not saying 0 percent, anything is possible, i just wouldn't say the odds favor this outcome of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Take a look at the degree of blocking retrograding in tandem with the PV and then get back to me with 0% (zero percent) odds. Backed by this... http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I honestly think it tucks down to about your latitude. That would put the cut off for the good stuff from about NYC north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I wonder if someone can come up with some info on the furthest south the PV has ever gotten in our lifetimes and the most anomalous pattern we have ever seen. Alex, didn't the PV dump into the USA for January 1985? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It's cool to look at for now...if it happened I would likely hit some sort of personal nirvana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 I honestly think it tucks down to about your latitude. yea i can see that....but no model right now is even showing that...this run reminds me of the 2 runs we had with the dec 19-20 storm...we had the one run where it was a good hit for the area...then the 12z run was a monster...then it backed off....here 12z run hit nyc to your area great, 0z crushes everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Probably. But if there was a pattern where it could happen, this is it. Absolutely agree; in fact, I was about to edit my post to reflect that....I posted in the sne thread that if you would like this to be considered a viable option, then 12z EURO will be big to see if it holds or especially continues the trend s. I think we can all agree that at one point, the trend will reverse because the EURO will over do it; hopefully that time is not now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Definitely shows the extreme potential of the pattern, even if way too extreme. That would be 3-4 feet of snow in 2 weeks?? Sounds about right-- 40 to 50 inches of snow over 10 days-- but getting that to actually happen is the hard part lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Alex, didn't the PV dump into the USA for January 1985? Yep, Im not sure how far south it got though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 im not saying 0 percent, anything is possible, i just wouldn't say the odds favor this outcome of happening. Even if it didn't quite dig that far, we would get a good storm, though - correct? I'm with you. This is what excites me. Summer heat waves just don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Absolutely agree; in fact, I was about to edit my post to reflect that....I posted in the sne thread that if you would like this to be considered a viable option, then 12z EURO will be big to see if it holds or especially continues the trend s. I think we can all agree that at one point, the trend will reverse because the EURO will over do it; hopefully that time it not now. i think the 0z ens will show if this run was on crack or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Even if it didn't quite dig that far, we would get a good storm, though - correct? I'm with you. This is what excites me. Summer heat waves just don't. for us, we need it over delmarva or va capes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i think the 0z ens will show if this run was on crack or not... I bet you'll see like one 985 mb contour over the entire NE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Complex storm threat, I saw it and wasn't surprised that it developed it, but there are a lot of complex interactions early, especially within the first 48 hours, that the models can't get a handle on up in Canada as well as a couple complex phases. An exciting run and more legit than the first two Euro fluke bombs from a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yep and we already had a red tagger on the main forum say this run has 0% chance of verifying because of what it does with the PV... There's also a southern piece of energy the PV phases with to produce this monster on the run that the GFS doesn't have at all. But I agree, I would expect to see a sharper ridge for a vortex that dives this far south. Bottom line is though that the Euro has a single, slower and very powerful vort which dives SE to phase, and the GFS has a weaker main vort that is more progressive and doesn't dig. Gun to my head, I would favor a more GFS like solution due to the extremity the Euro run would require, but we also don't need a 100% perfect solution for a significant event here like the DC area does. As the last event showed, we have more breathing room than they do. We'll have to watch the trending over the next 2-3 days to see where this is heading and hopefully get more models on board. Hopefully the euro ensembles have this wrapped up of a solution as well. Perhaps extremity isn't so outlandish this winter either given the massive blocking and established tendency to develop major coastal storms. Chances get better and better the further NE you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Just to give an idea of how far the PV shifts between 12z and 0z EUro.. 12z EURO has the core of the PV sitting due north of Lake Michigan.. on the 0z, its sitting over the KY, WV, OH border.. @ hour 114 I recall a day or two back where HPC was talking about the spread that existed between the models with this particular system and how some of the spread showed the KY, WV, OH border ..so not sure it would be safe to say that just because the ECM shows this now as potentially happening that it could not be correct... Keep in mind its 12 Z Means was much more west then the 12 Z OP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Absolutely agree; in fact, I was about to edit my post to reflect that....I posted in the sne thread that if you would like this to be considered a viable option, then 12z EURO will be big to see if it holds or especially continues the trend s. I think we can all agree that at one point, the trend will reverse because the EURO will over do it; hopefully that time it not now. It's interesting to see how crazy some of these solutions can really get. I posted last night about how I was absolutely certain we would see mouth watering solutions out of this setup. I say it's interesting because I have yet to see anything like the degree of blocking we have seen the past winter and a half. It's literally out of control. The block retrogrades from Greenland to Baffin Island and the ridge goes all the way into Central Canada..forcing the PV underneath and it tucks in to the Mid Atlantic. It's not likely but it's amazing how you can see solutions like this, but because of the blocking..they aren't total crap. I still agree with most of what you said..this is definitely an outlier solution. I think the Euro ensembles would be where I put money..which is still a good event northeast of Central NJ and a big event near you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 for us, we need it over delmarva or va capes. Yea, I need it just under LI, but hopefully it goes a bit s of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 for us, we need it over delmarva or va capes. Thanks. So since this one went down to the outer banks, there's some room here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 I bet you'll see like one 985 mb contour over the entire NE lol hahahaha kind of like the 18z gfs ens mean spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 John, how much snow do you have left.....about 4", here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The ridging into Central Canada pretty much has me convinced this is another power keg pattern for this area into SNE as well..if this storm doesn't do it there is a well modeled southern stream vort afterwards we have seen on all guidance at one point. Pretty exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Complex storm threat, I saw it and wasn't surprised that it developed it, but there are a lot of complex interactions early, especially within the first 48 hours, that the models can't get a handle on up in Canada as well as a couple complex phases. An exciting run and more legit than the first two Euro fluke bombs from a couple days ago. 0% chance of happening? does not sound like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 John, how much snow do you have left.....about 4", here.... Not exactly sure probably around 6...I have never seen 30 inches of snow disappear as fast as I did the last 24 hrs. I'm not complaining though..that storm was like a dream relived in slow motion..it can sleet for years and you won't hear a single word out of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The ridging into Central Canada pretty much has me convinced this is another power keg pattern for this area into SNE as well..if this storm doesn't do it there is a well modeled southern stream vort afterwards we have seen on all guidance at one point. Pretty exciting. I used the exact same terminology, today.....I hope this one materializes because I want a shot at what you saw last wknd and a s stream event will not do the trick for me, at least to that great a capacity. I need a system entirely of N stream origin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not exactly sure probably around 6...I have never seen 30 inches of snow disappear as fast as I did the last 24 hrs. I'm not complaining though..that storm was like a dream relived in slow motion..it can sleet for years and you won't hear a single word out of me how about feb 06? I saw 17 go in 3 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not exactly sure probably around 6...I have never seen 30 inches of snow disappear as fast as I did the last 24 hrs. I'm not complaining though..that storm was like a dream relived in slow motion..it can sleet for years and you won't hear a single word out of me Wow...figured you'd be around 1', at least. Snowpack has been tenacious up here, though Boston itself has suffered a greater loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 From reading the past few pages I knew tonight's run of the Euro was huge... but I finally just checked the charts on Plymouth - booted up the Day 5 500mb - and HOLY FVCK! That's an absurd solution. I don't think I can ever recall such a deep PV diving so far south in reality anyway. And that's not really a phase - OK technically the streams are in phase - but what it shows is the center of the god damn PV (that should be somewhere up near Hudson Bay) pinwheeling into the upper Lakes (ok, not that crazy), and then nosediving toward the southeast coast (CRAZY) This is a very dramatic solution that would lead to excessive surface pressure falls just offshore. Interestingly, the GFS showed something basically similar at 18z and several ensemble members showed solutions even more extreme... so it's not completely out of left field. And with such anomalous blocking in place, it would be WRONG to assert that something like this absolutely cannot happen. However, the day 3 and 4 charts look much more reasonable to me than day 5. We all know this is going to jump around and chances are the PV stays in or close to Canada. But this confirms a much higher ceiling of potential for this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I used the exact same terminology, today.....I hope this one materializes because I want a shot at what you saw last wknd and a s stream event will not do the trick for me, at least to that great a capacity. I need a system entirely of N stream origin. You would think that would be easy to accomplish with the ENSO state..you'll get your fill. No doubt about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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