Thunder Road Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 breaking out the 64-pack tonight, eh tombo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Didnt earthlight just make a post about how this can be something huge if all the pieces come together correctly? Well this euro run is a perfect example. this is one of those mouth watering solutions he warned us about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 ECMWF has a great H500 signature that supports rapid cyclogensis and classic troughness that would just setup very ideally for the I-95. Oh, those dates sure help also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 144 hrs on the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Ok guys cover your eyes sub 970 mb stalls off the jersey coast and absoloutely wrecks everybody wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Tombo, does central ct get the shaft again, or do we do better on this progged go around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 looks as if 850 temps are -4 to -8 the duration( obviously colder as storm moves out) for the 1-95 corridor. maybe some BL issues for the COast, but thats heresay,..What a tease of a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Ok guys cover your eyes sub 970 mb stalls off the jersey coast and absoloutely wrecks everybody wow Looks like we get so much snow that the only two signs left of where NYC used to be will be two tiny humps in the snow for the Chrysler and Empire State Bldgs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Ok guys cover your eyes sub 970 mb stalls off the jersey coast and absoloutely wrecks everybody wow House money says it's gone by 12z. Would be a nice 15 year anni present, but the setup is highly volatile and you'd think the models will continue to bounce around with this. Many did warn that the big storm solution will pop up occasionally, the question becomes, will it stay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 breaking out the 64-pack tonight, eh tombo? if people want me to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Tombo, does central ct get the shaft again, or do we do better on this progged go around? you get 1.75-2 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 if people want me to I would vote for a QPF map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 if people want me to for old times sake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 this is one of those mouth watering solutions he warned us about Hopefully it's not fantasy. We've got a few days for other guidance to catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Looks like we get so much snow that the only two signs left of where NYC used to be will be two tiny humps in the snow for the Chrysler and Empire State Bldgs. The statue of liberty will just be a torch sticking out of a vast desert of white. Sort of reminds me of the Planet of the Apes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hilarious that the Euro shows this after GFS and GGEM give us close to nothing. Gotta love these nutty models. I don't know why we even bother looking at this range. You know they're gonna give much different solutions constantly until you get within 48 hours of an event. Watch, tomorrow Euro will flip to showing nothing while GFS shows something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 House money says it's gone by 12z. Would be a nice 15 year anni present, but the setup is highly volatile and you'd think the models will continue to bounce around with this. Many did warn that the big storm solution will pop up occasionally, the question becomes, will it stay? After the last storm and the historic pattern we're in, I dont rule anything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Lets just be reminded that the EURO is the most bullish with this clipper, and should be the outlier for the time being. Beautiful run.. Get ready for the weenie invasion in the am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 alright....let me work on this map...looks like another snow event post 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 ECMWF has a great H500 signature that supports rapid cyclogensis and classic troughness that would just setup very ideally for the I-95. Oh, those dates sure help also. It looks like Jan 1996 got reincarnated lol. That 1995-96 analogy may work out after all, if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Looks like we get so much snow that the only two signs left of where NYC used to be will be two tiny humps in the snow for the Chrysler and Empire State Bldgs. Chris L will be but a vibrating bump in the large 50 foot drifts of snow as he convulses in joy...while in the distance you can hear metfan still announcing a storm play by play via the cvs intercom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Lol, another storm coming up the coast at 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Chris L will be but a vibrating bump in the large 50 foot drifts of snow as he convulses in joy...while in the distance you can hear metfan still announcing a storm play by play via the cvs intercom. I wonder if the rest of NY/NJ consider us weirdos for rooting on snow. With the way everyone seems to be fed up with snow in the city, it probably seems like supporting terrorists to them LOL oh well, I dont care-- its the mayor's fault, not the snow's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Lol, another storm coming up the coast at 204 Good, I want our area to turn into the next lake effect snow belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If you are one that likes to use the NOGAPS as a flag to the other models because it has that suppressed bias...well 00z shows this tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I wonder if the rest of NY/NJ consider us weirdos for rooting on snow. With the way everyone seems to be fed up with snow in the city, it probably seems like supporting terrorists to them LOL oh well, I dont care-- its the mayor's fault, not the snow's Weather freaks that love snow are in the extreme minority, no question. We're very strange people, but there's nothing wrong with being strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Chris L will be but a vibrating bump in the large 50 foot drifts of snow as he convulses in joy...while in the distance you can hear metfan still announcing a storm play by play via the cvs intercom. Waaaah if anything happens this weekend I'll be very depressed as I'm going to Chicago from the 7th-10th Regardless, hope we cash in. Coming back post-storm would be wonderful. I have pics etc from the last storm and the UWS was a complete wreck--my friend and I walked from the 57th street subway (he wanted to go to Bed Bath & Beyond on 64th, but it ended up being closed!) all the way to my place in the 80s in the middle of the street. A repeat of that would be AMAZING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 House money says it's gone by 12z. Would be a nice 15 year anni present, but the setup is highly volatile and you'd think the models will continue to bounce around with this. Many did warn that the big storm solution will pop up occasionally, the question becomes, will it stay? The further south the PV digs, the better it will be for more people. The Euro is again, the most extreme and phased solution, while the GFS/GGEM are the most progressive, broad and weak solutions. Both of their biases may be working against them in that the GFS often has a lot of trouble keying in on a vort at this range and produces a very messy solution. The Euro has overphased storms this winter but at this range was honking run after run at the last major storm we just had. The Euro has been more consistent than other models in digging the PV south and creating more of a coastal storm. What we need to look at is the degree of ridging out west and in particular into Canada as the PV strengthens. The more ridging=the further SE it will dig. Also, we need as little resistance from the SE ridge as possible. We also need to look at the strength and number of vortmaxes in the flow. I'm sure the Euro has one powerful and phased wave that comes up with the megabomb solution. The GFS has a mess of different vorts that create a broad and weak PV. I'm certain the solutions will change multiple times between now and then, and all options are very much on the table between snow showers associated with the PV to a massive coastal low. Still way too early to call it one way or the other, or somewhere in the middle. Pretty much ANYTHING is possible in a volatile setup like this one. The energy is certainly there to spin up a monster if it comes together correctly, but also to whiff right over us if it comes in as a weak mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 988mb getting captured again at 216...ahh, you get the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I wonder if the rest of NY/NJ consider us weirdos for rooting on snow. With the way everyone seems to be fed up with snow in the city, it probably seems like supporting terrorists to them LOL oh well, I dont care-- its the mayor's fault, not the snow's My mother was literally screaming on the morning of the 27th at the amount of snow, and "how the fook can you possibly enjoy this!??!" She would probably blow a fuse if we had another one this soon. I can't imagine how NYC will react given the debacle of this last one. And this time given the pattern, there won't be a major warmup after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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