SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The GEM however really crapped out from its 00Z run last night on the Miller B scenario....its amazing how well everyone is handling this overall...if the last storm had been a miss there would be brain hemorrhages here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The GEM however really crapped out from its 00Z run last night on the Miller B scenario....its amazing how well everyone is handling this overall...if the last storm had been a miss there would be brain hemorrhages here right now. yeah...the pv is just too broad on the models right now and we needed the 500mb low to close off much further south, instead of new york state. The next wave of energy around the 10th is looking more interesting, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The GEM however really crapped out from its 00Z run last night on the Miller B scenario....its amazing how well everyone is handling this overall...if the last storm had been a miss there would be brain hemorrhages here right now. I said if I got a HECS near Christmas I would never complain again, and I meant it. I couldn't care less if it rains every day the next two months...I got my 30" and that's already above my seasonal average. I'm sure other people feel differently though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 yeah...the pv is just too broad on the models right now and we needed the 500mb low to close off much further south, instead of new york state. The next wave of energy around the 10th is looking more interesting, though. As confident as I was on December 10th or so when I told everyone there would without by 12/31 be a snow event I am more convinced that will be the last by 1/31 this month and there could be 2 or 3 this time though I think only one will be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 As confident as I was on December 10th or so when I told everyone there would without by 12/31 be a snow event I am more convinced that will be the last by 1/31 this month and there could be 2 or 3 this time though I think only one will be significant. Two things, SG 1) People are still in recovery mode after the big storm, regardless of where Kocin ranks it, it was the biggest and most disruptive here since 1/96 2) People are really psyched about this cold pattern which could be the most anomalous since Jan 1994. Whatever the cause (but especially if its solar) we're all looking forward to seeing phenomena we havent seen in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I said if I got a HECS near Christmas I would never complain again, and I meant it. I couldn't care less if it rains every day the next two months...I got my 30" and that's already above my seasonal average. I'm sure other people feel differently though. An interesting question. Would you rather have 1 historic 30 inch storm and no snow the rest of the winter, or a bunch of smaller events throughout the winter that add up to 30 inches? All a matter of opinion. Personally I love big storms, but if I had those 2 choices I would take the smaller events adding up to 30 inches. I'd rather have have wintry weather extended over a long period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 As confident as I was on December 10th or so when I told everyone there would without by 12/31 be a snow event I am more convinced that will be the last by 1/31 this month and there could be 2 or 3 this time though I think only one will be significant. Wait SG, were you trying to say that as confident as you were that there would be a snow event by 12/31 you are even more convinced there will be 2 or 3 in January but only 1 will be significant (and by significant do you mean >10"?) I got a bit confused by your wording lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 ggem post 180, what the gfs crushes the gem doesnt do http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It would be funny if everything came together less than 2 days before the storm. The picture is so unclear and who knows what's going to happen with that epic Alaskan block. I feel that we're going to see something huge this month, but I don't have the slightest clue when, where, and how. Thats probably another reason why people are taking all the model fluctuations well. We saw what happened with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 An interesting question. Would you rather have 1 historic 30 inch storm and no snow the rest of the winter, or a bunch of smaller events throughout the winter that add up to 30 inches? All a matter of opinion. Personally I love big storms, but if I had those 2 choices I would take the smaller events adding up to 30 inches. I'd rather have have wintry weather extended over a long period of time. I too love big events, but I'd hate to have just one big one and then have winter be essentially over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 ggem post 180, what the gfs crushes the gem doesnt do http://www.meteo.psu...0z/cmcloop.html im more interested to see what the euro does with that system then the miller B.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Two things, SG 1) People are still in recovery mode after the big storm, regardless of where Kocin ranks it, it was the biggest and most disruptive here since 1/96 2) People are really psyched about this cold pattern which could be the most anomalous since Jan 1994. Whatever the cause (but especially if its solar) we're all looking forward to seeing phenomena we havent seen in awhile. Yes, this is true, but Alex, remember, JAN 1996 had the most widespread 30+ everywhere, I do agree that this storm was the worse I have seen (My father says he also hasn't seen it since Jan 1996 as well). And its my favorite of all time (DEC 2010). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 ggem post 180, what the gfs crushes the gem doesnt do http://www.meteo.psu...0z/cmcloop.html Decent looking qpf field, but the RH fields seem a bit dry. Nice to see it on there though. not sure if that double low structure has something to do with those RH fields looking a bit dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I too love big events, but I'd hate to have just one big one and then have winter be essentially over. Honestly I probably wouldn't mind it. I've seen as many 2-4, 3-6" nickel and dime events at PSU to last me an eternity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Honestly I probably wouldn't mind it. I've seen as many 2-4, 3-6" nickel and dime events at PSU to last me an eternity. How about a bunch of 8-12 inch events? I think this winter has a lot more fun in store for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 How about a bunch of 8-12 inch events? I think this winter has a lot more fun in store for us. Those are awesome too!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Honestly I probably wouldn't mind it. I've seen as many 2-4, 3-6" nickel and dime events at PSU to last me an eternity. You sure you aren't talking about Hanover, NH? As has been pointed out by others a week back, the coastal northeast is the place outside of the lakes and the west for the truly big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 First event GGEM Second event GGEM Also brings a huge storm on to the west coast moving towards the East afterwards.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You sure you aren't talking about Hanover, NH? As has been pointed out by others a week back, the coastal northeast is the place outside of the lakes and the west for the truly big ones. Penn State was too far east for lake effect and Apps/lake cutters, and too far west for coastals during my time there. We mostly got our storms from overrunning, snow to sleet/ZR events, and clippers. My biggest snow event (which went to sleet in the end) was around 11" or so of combined cement on 2/14/07 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 How anyone can get excited about extreme cold is beyond me? Well... I mean I love a good heat wave in the spring/summer so I guess I can understand it, but as I get older (now 27) the desire for extreme cold begins to fade away.. Lol anyone else feel the same as they get older? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 How anyone can get excited about extreme cold is beyond me? Well... I mean I love a good heat wave in the spring/summer so I guess I can understand it, but as I get older (now 27) the desire for extreme cold begins to fade away.. Lol anyone else feel the same as they get older? i just find it funny you consider yourself old at 27 lol...im the opposite, i love the cold hate the heat. I work outside during the summer, and this past summer was just brutal. I can adapt better to cold than heat. When its so hot out you can't dress for it or anything, atleast with the cold you can put layers on and go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i just find it funny you consider yourself old at 27 lol...im the opposite, i love the cold hate the heat. I work outside during the summer, and this past summer was just brutal. I can adapt better to cold than heat. When its so hot out you can't dress for it or anything, atleast with the cold you can put layers on and go out. Agree. While the extreme cold doesn't feel good to me, the extreme weather side of me likes a good cold spell because I can tolerate it. Extreme heat makes me miserable. GGEM looks promising for that 2nd storm. Notice the low right off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I said if I got a HECS near Christmas I would never complain again, and I meant it. I couldn't care less if it rains every day the next two months...I got my 30" and that's already above my seasonal average. I'm sure other people feel differently though. To me, winter is all about consistency; I much prefer to have a number of moderate events with solid snowpack and cold temperatures. Seeing a HECS in your backyard is always great, but I became accustomed to a consistently cold and snowy winter in Vermont, and I'd like to have that here. I think this January offers a good chance for a number of moderate events that will keep our snowpack fresh as well as an arctic outbreak around January 15th after an extended period of below normal temperatures. Also, the December 26th storm wasn't that great for a lot of areas...I got 13" which is a good snowfall but certainly not worth giving up the rest of the season over. I have to be honest, the radar presentation of the storm wasn't really exceptional given we were dealing with a 960mb low, way too many holes in CT, RI, and the Mid-Atlantic. I totally agree with Kocin that this was a 2 on the scale, nothing more. The banding over NJ was impressive but everyone else had fairly pedestrian totals despite the amazing winds and cold. i just find it funny you consider yourself old at 27 lol...im the opposite, i love the cold hate the heat. I work outside during the summer, and this past summer was just brutal. I can adapt better to cold than heat. When its so hot out you can't dress for it or anything, atleast with the cold you can put layers on and go out. I love the freshness of the extreme cold air, makes me feel alive. I went for a walk in Middlebury when it was -20F outside in January 2009, and it felt great. I also believe that winter should feel like winter; it should be harsh, windy, snowy, bitter cold, etc. Nothing worse than having a winter where you can open up your windows and pretend it's spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i just find it funny you consider yourself old at 27 lol...im the opposite, i love the cold hate the heat. I work outside during the summer, and this past summer was just brutal. I can adapt better to cold than heat. When its so hot out you can't dress for it or anything, atleast with the cold you can put layers on and go out. Take lots of very cold showers and wear as little as possible in the summer. I love big heat waves, lots of dry heat with no moisture. I also love big cold waves. I loathe sea breeze summers with artificially high mins. This past summer was amazing, I want every summer to be like that, just like I want every winter to be like 95-96. Going running in that kind of weather makes you feel ALIVE Anyone who thinks 95 is hot or 5 degrees is cold are weaklings-- nothing less than 100 will do in the summer, and nothing more than 0 will do in the winter for those of us who love extreme weather The same goes for 20 inch snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 pretty big differences on the euro on the h5....vortex is further sw over northern wisconsin...instead of 300 miles north of the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 this euro run has potential...vortex now is now over southern wisconsin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 An interesting question. Would you rather have 1 historic 30 inch storm and no snow the rest of the winter, or a bunch of smaller events throughout the winter that add up to 30 inches? All a matter of opinion. Personally I love big storms, but if I had those 2 choices I would take the smaller events adding up to 30 inches. I'd rather have have wintry weather extended over a long period of time. neither. if we saw 10 storms of 3", then that would be the norm. nothing would ever over-perform. give me a random mix, please. that's what makes this whole meteorology thing fun, not knowing what's going to happen until it already has! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i just find it funny you consider yourself old at 27 lol...im the opposite, i love the cold hate the heat. I work outside during the summer, and this past summer was just brutal. I can adapt better to cold than heat. When its so hot out you can't dress for it or anything, atleast with the cold you can put layers on and go out. I was thinking the same thing. 27 qualifies as getting older these days? lol As far as very cold weather, I'll take it if it means snow threats. If I knew there was no chance of snow threats, then I'd rather it not be very cold. But of course cold weather usually means a better chance of snow, so I always root for a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 yeah tombo, the closed 500mb low is over the ohio valley at 108..way more amp'd then the gfs/ggem so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 108 vortex over central indiana...lgt precip ny,pa east through oh valley...lgt to mod precip over cincy and northern ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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