bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Without a doubt if you live south of CNJ then keep expectations real low. Unless a clipper dives south down off of the VA capes then PHL is not going to make out....and I don't think that happens. "Amazing patterns" don't always yield a memorable storm. Personally, I'm keeping expectations low for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Fo one, modelling today is generally far superior to modelling back then, and also the NAO was in a positive state throughout the 80s and 90s. Given how negative it is now and how frequently blocks want to redevelop over Greenland, it bodes well for our chances in the long term. Without a doubt we'll have our share of disappointments, but our odds are much better with a -NAO than without. I can tell you right now, that I remember that when meterologists talked about a possible 4-8 inch snowstorm 5 days away back then, they viewed it like a HECS. Im not sure in their wildest dreams they ever thought we would be seeing 20 inch snowstorms with such rapidly even on the models, let alone in reality lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Without a doubt if you live south of CNJ then keep expectations real low. Unless a clipper dives south down off of the VA capes then PHL is not going to make out....and I don't think that happens. How can you logically say this when the models are not even sure which piece of energy to focus on? Latest 18 Z GFS drops .25-.50 across the state of PA and into NJ as well...and the latest ECM means are actually more west of the operational run which suggests that this is far from being settled...So right now going by current Data whether correct or not KPHL is in the makings for a 2-4 inch snow fall...and depending on how things evolve could end up greater... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That is what when U get Spoiled with a 30" storm these standard 6-12 type storms just don't cut it.. It wasn't that long ago that the referred "standard 6-12 type storms" were HECS. The 3-6 ans 4-8 type calls were a big deal. It seems that the last 10-15 years with the historic snow storms along the east coast are creating the perception that these happen more often than not which isn't the case looking back 100+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Just curious..Been away for the past several days....What's the "buzz" on later this week's snow? What crazy numbers and maps are being put out and by who and where? Just came back from Liberty NY, this morning barely patches of snow there , and here in Lynbrook, mountains...never saw it this way, usually it's the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The models will waffle for sure but most guidance has the threat to our north generally and this is supported by climo. I've lived here for a long time......enough to know that way more often than not these types of systems are no more than snow showers for us. When ANY model guidance shows a real low popping south of the Delmarva then maybe I'll get excited. How can you logically say this when the models are not even sure which piece of energy to focus on? Latest 18 Z GFS drops .25-.50 across the state of PA and into NJ as well...and the latest ECM means are actually more west of the operational run which suggests that this is far from being settled...So right now going by current Data whether correct or not KPHL is in the makings for a 2-4 inch snow fall...and depending on how things evolve could end up greater... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The models will waffle for sure but most guidance has the threat to our north generally and this is supported by climo. I've lived here for a long time......enough to know that way more often than not these types of systems are no more than snow showers for us. <b>When ANY model guidance shows a real low popping south of the Delmarva then maybe I'll get excited.</b> Some of the individual ens members from different models show this possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Just curious..Been away for the past several days....What's the "buzz" on later this week's snow? What crazy numbers and maps are being put out and by who and where? Just came back from Liberty NY, this morning barely patches of snow there , and here in Lynbrook, mountains...never saw it this way, usually it's the opposite. You'd be better off just sifting through this thread to read all the gyrations of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I am sure they do.....a handful always do but that doesn't mean a whole lot really. Not saying its not possible....just not very likely at all. It's like a crime here sometimes to be pessimistic on snow chances. <br /><br /><br /> Some of the individual ens members from different models show this possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The models will waffle for sure but most guidance has the threat to our north generally and this is supported by climo. I've lived here for a long time......enough to know that way more often than not these types of systems are no more than snow showers for us. When ANY model guidance shows a real low popping south of the Delmarva then maybe I'll get excited. Interesting because most guidance that i seen actually has the secondary to our south and to our east... Above is three of the 4 major models...so I am not sure where I am seeing this to the north? If you are talking the primary (clipper) generally the way they do work is they are further to the north and redevelop anywhere from the Delmarva to south of Long Island... However..we have all these pieces of energy and the models still are not sure which piece of energy they want to focus on. So if the models are not sure, and if the professionals (see HPC) are also saying there are disagreements on small scale details...I am not sure how anyone can be so cut and dry when it comes to a region. Matter of fact KPHL has done well in Miller B scenarios as that one poster has showed from the book that he listed 13 of them? And I am almost willing to bet we see a different evolution 15 minutes from now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS is radically different so far from 12z out 102 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS is radically different so far from 12z out 102 hours In a good or bad way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through 102 the PV is stronger and much farther south than the 18z GFS at 108 would possibly argue for a more southern-tracking Clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Very minimal qpf on the gfs tonight from the clipper, and the miller b bombs way too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through 102 the PV is stronger and much farther south than the 18z GFS at 108 would possibly argue for a more southern-tracking Clipper? Sounds like a much stronger block killing our storm chances on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Sounds like a much stronger block killing our storm chances on this run yeah more like the PV is the Clipper. unless the "clipper" never breaks off from the pv? I'll admit I'm thoroughly confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS develops 3 lows. Nothing interesting on this run for NYC-Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Sounds like a much stronger block killing our storm chances on this run Neither the PV nor any of the several minor shortwaves is in a good position for us this run. This looks reasonable overall. However with the large spread and multiple impinging shortwaves, we'll surely get a sniff at something big on future models/runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This run fails to even bomb anything out because it has so many different pieces of energy running around it is entirely impossible for the model to figure out which one to focus on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 yeah more like the PV is the Clipper. unless the "clipper" never breaks off from the pv? I'll admit I'm thoroughly confused. This changes somewhat run to run and model to model as the orientation of the vortex differs. The PV is essentially the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This changes somewhat run to run and model to model as the orientation of the vortex differs. The PV is essentially the clipper. yeah that's what I was thinking. seems bogus, but we've seen the models throw everything at us but the kitchen sink these past few days so who knows. I still think a light snow event is a good call for PHL-TTN, with NYC on the cut-off line and SNE *maybe* getting big snows. but hey, i'd be happy with a widespread 1-3" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Take look at the potential for Jan 10-15 thought. 50/50, MEGA block, tons of energy from the STJ and NW coming in. Something is going to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This run fails to even bomb anything out because it has so many different pieces of energy running around it is entirely impossible for the model to figure out which one to focus on! Sounds like tonights GFS run should be taken with a Grain of Salt.. With that Said I don't expect things to come into a clearer picture for another couple days at least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Take look at the potential for Jan 10-15 thought. 50/50, MEGA block, tons of energy from the STJ and NW coming in. Something is going to pop. yeah that looks interesting, but there is no ridge out west to amp up a sharp trough to get it to turn up the coast, so this thing just slides out. I think we need that miller B to move out quicker also because that 50/50 is crushing the heights off the east coast..i guess we'll see what the other models show - its still a long way out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Take look at the potential for Jan 10-15 thought. 50/50, MEGA block, tons of energy from the STJ and NW coming in. Something is going to pop. Except everything is suppressed until around the 17th when heights raise out ahead of the storm so much it tries to cut into NY basically...and delivers serious cold air afterwards (as well as before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It would be funny if everything came together less than 2 days before the storm. The picture is so unclear and who knows what's going to happen with that epic Alaskan block. I feel that we're going to see something huge this month, but I don't have the slightest clue when, where, and how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 One thing that is amazing is the mega storm at Day 14-16 which has now been present on what seems like the last 10 runs of the GFS....of course the tendency has been to cut it inland, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Take look at the potential for Jan 10-15 thought. 50/50, MEGA block, tons of energy from the STJ and NW coming in. Something is going to pop. GFS past few days at 240+ has been advertising a setup that'll make 1993 proud. I remember yesterday's 0z run showed a similar setup to tonight's during that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 We need for there to be a more defined piece of energy and for the PV to cut south further. Nothing will happen here with a broad and circular PV sitting over Binghamton besides some snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 ggem is stronger with the clipper. Looks like a southern pa to se pa hit to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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