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Potential winter threats

tombo82685

By tombo82685,
in New York City Metro

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

The Euro tends to suck as much as the other models Day 8-10, I'm betting on another huge storm towards the end of the first week of January, maybe will get our 96 repeat. :arrowhead:

I think that period looks good also. Plenty of activity going on and potential for things to come into play. Of course...I'll be flying from ACY to West Palm on Jan 6th so right off the bat with my luck we will get a big one. :popcorn:

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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The Euro tends to suck as much as the other models Day 8-10, I'm betting on another huge storm towards the end of the first week of January, maybe will get our 96 repeat. :arrowhead:

It loves breaking patterns down in that range, you'll notice in mild winters it loves showing cold airmasses and snow threats in that range and in cold winters it often tries to snap the pattern....this is the reason I like the Day 10-16 GFS...the last 10 or so runs have consistently shown a cold pattern beyond Day 10 when the previous few days they were waffling....any degree of consistency for multiple GFS runs beyond Day 10 is usually a good indication some sort of pattern resembling that will occur.

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eduggs

eduggs

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At day 7, most globals and their ensembles have a broad, low amplitude trof over the center of the country with a hint of an upper level low somewhere in the southwest. Gotta believe a threat develops in the 8-10 day period if a stronger s/w materializes in the main slow through the PacNW or if an organized cutoff gets through the SW toward Texas. As others have said, temperatures through this period are uncertain. I think this trends colder as we approach, because mean heights look low in the Maritimes and the negative NAO pattern looks to hold. Looking for a shortwave to key on... worry about temperatures later.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

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It also seems like the blocking never fully goes away, the NAO continues to average negative while the AO is going through some ups and downs but it's staying more negative. I also like how the PNA looks more neutral than negative, that's been a big problem for most of December where a lack of a western ridge didn't allow storms to phase.

I think there's huge potential for a nice overrunning to coastal event like PD II although to a greatly lesser extent. I also agree with what the Euro tends to do in the long range. The gfs has definitely been more accurate with outlining the pattern beyond Day 8.

Obviously, a lot of things had changed since we first starting forecasting winter 10-11 in October. The blocking is much more stubborn than usual and I think some have mentioned that the Nina may be weakening. While I do think we could get some warm periods for the next 3 months, it's looking less likely that we would torch. There's a decent chance that January could end up slightly below normal and that's enough to get some snow events over here.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

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Well when you have well established blocking and strong pacific short waves, somethings bound to happen. What's incredible is how strong blocking makes all of this happen, last year we had an intense Nino which was strong enough to overwhelm us with warm air but the severe blocking counteracted the Nino and gave the mid Atlantic unprecedented snowfall amounts. Now the blocking is counteracting the affects of the usually unfavorable Nino by providing us with snowfall and snowfall opportunities, not to mention that they're Miller A systems, which rarely happen in a strong Nina.

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eduggs

eduggs

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OP GFS and ensembles showing basic pattern evolution that isn't drastically different than the pattern that just produced an east coast storm... Lots of high latitude blocking with polar vortices sliding from central/southern Canada toward the central north Atlantic. An upper level low looks to split off from the northern stream and slowly traverse the country. Any significant digging of the northern branch or linking up with the southern stream cutoff moving from the SW toward Texas should produce a Tenn Valley or Gulf low days 8-11.

It looks like there is general support for this timeframe from the Euro, GGEM, and ensembles.

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NortheastPAWx

NortheastPAWx

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I really like the signal around Jan 5-8. There's a pretty strong signal for a northern stream anomaly and a bunch of the GEFS ensembles have southern stream energy hanging around as well. The blocking is also very impressive. Keep an eye on this.

Oh boy, here we go again. Should I prepare now for major disappointment?

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Feb

Feb

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Oh boy, here we go again. Should I prepare now for major disappointment?

Hang in there man. I think your turn is coming as i expect future storms this winter to benefit those NW of the big cities instead of in the cities or a long the coast. You didn't miss by much with this one either. If it wasn't for some form of blocking i doubt anyone in this sub forum would have any chance of snow so be patient.

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Algorithms

Algorithms

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Oh boy, here we go again. Should I prepare now for major disappointment?

I got slammed by the last storm with a whopping 30". I am a snow lover, but have lost two days pay so far, as the roads have been impassable. I am still waiting on the plows, but hopefully that will happen tonight. So I will gladly give you this next storm, and hope you get a blizzard with 2 to 3 feet. :snowman:

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

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Please reread the article- no where does it say that winter is over.

No...but it's implied by the words "pattern change." Generally when meteorologists refer to a pattern change it's something that is long-lasting (2 weeks or more). I don't see a massive east coast ridge lasting too long...the pattern may not be ideal anymore but it certainly doesn't look like it will be anything like that nightmare jetstream configuration.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

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A pattern change doesn't really mean it will last a long time, it just means everything has shifted for a few days. A pattern change doesn't have to go from good to bad. We could get a pattern change that's still favorable for us to get snow although this will not be the case.

The pattern change will last for only 3-5 days this time and then it will change again to a more favorable pattern for us.

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jrodd321

jrodd321

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A pattern change doesn't really mean it will last a long time, it just means everything has shifted for a few days. A pattern change doesn't have to go from good to bad. We could get a pattern change that's still favorable for us to get snow although this will not be the case.

The pattern change will last for only 3-5 days this time and then it will change again to a more favorable pattern for us.

That's not a pattern change then. More like a few warm days then back to the icebox/snow chances.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Agree. The NAO shows no sign of going positive either. I'm still on board for a colder than normal January in the Northeast.

I originally forecasted a warmer than normal January for NYC-DCA with average temperatures for New England in the winter forecast I released late October. I'm starting to rethink this as I see signs of the NAO rebuilding in configuration with a massive -AO. Definitely seems as if cold temperatures will return after the cutter.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Its been so damn long since we've had a nice january storm. This would be perfect if we could finally get a cold january going for once haha.

We had a cold January in 2009 with an arctic outbreak mid-month that shattered records in New England and the Upper Midwest; even Central Park got down to 6F, and 850mb temperatures of -20C extended all the way down to DC. The month also had significant snowfall for NYC suburbs and northward, but probably not as much for the PHL area. It didn't have a big storm but rather several smaller events that added up here in Westchester County. I was going to college in Middlebury, VT at the time, and January 2009 was one of the best winter months I remember there due to the intense cold (-20F on campus one night) and the frequent moderate to significant snowfalls.

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jrodd321

jrodd321

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We had a cold January in 2009 with an arctic outbreak mid-month that shattered records in New England and the Upper Midwest; even Central Park got down to 6F, and 850mb temperatures of -20C extended all the way down to DC. The month also had significant snowfall for NYC suburbs and northward, but probably not as much for the PHL area. It didn't have a big storm but rather several smaller events that added up here in Westchester County. I was going to college in Middlebury, VT at the time, and January 2009 was one of the best winter months I remember there due to the intense cold (-20F on campus one night) and the frequent moderate to significant snowfalls.

Yea guess I was just thinking about the philly area then. I would love another january 2005 clipper bomb. Now that storm was epic.

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