eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 A larger spread on the individual members translates to a less amplified mean. Most of the time, this is the case and the flow is more progressive/east. However, when a mean is more amplified and further west than an operational, it means that the individual members are all comparitively more amplified. The first sentence is true. But I assume you mean less amplified in the numerical sense... as in tending toward the average instead of the extreme. Trof amplitude is a related but distinct concept. But in this case, we're not dealing with a simple longwave trof. Assumptions about amplitude, strength, and west vs. east do not apply. Instead, we have a deep upper level vortex rotating down from central Canada with multiple associated shortwaves. Several low pressure centers will likely develop and slide east offshore in connection with weak southern stream energy. One of these might interact with the PV or a lobe of vorticity pinwheeling around the vortex and induce cyclogenesis somewhere near or off the coast. When you take the mean of 20 disparate member solutions in this scenario, the mean is not likely to resemble a viable outcome in its own right. The ensemble mean is not a discrete solution. And its comparison to any particular operational run isn't particularly noteworthy - beyond highlighting the HIGH LIKELIHOOD this low confidence scenario will continue to evolve in the modeling. What is of some value is the individual member solutions, their trends, and clustering. I mistakenly thought you were referring to the individual members in your original comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 2nd storm is out to sea with the miller a/b hybrid looks like. But still, we got 2 potential storms to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 You can see at 114 hours how the system becomes a bit disorganized. The first northern stream feature heading towards the OH Valley could trend stronger, and then the PV retrograde could amplify things dramatically..but as it is, it doesn't do much for us. I will take .25" liquid and a refresh snowpack any day, though. http://www.meteo.psu...VN_18z/f114.gif John, we would need more than a refresh here lol-- Our snowpack took a huge hit today. Probably under 6" now. How much do you have left? Im thinking I'll only have patchy snowcover left on grassy areas and on the sides of the streets by the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 John, You know this stuff much better than I do from a meteorological perspective. I am seeing this in the eyes of someone with much less meteorological knowledge. I am just going based on past trends and what I see with the ensembles all week. To me, they seem to point out that there will be redevelopment off the DelMarva, and there is high likelihood of this stalling out and bombing off the NJ coast. The models have shown this already and the ensembles continue to point this out as a possibility, and to a large extent the ensembles are much more robust with this possibility than the operational runs of all the models. This whole set-up reminds me of the complex pattern that recently produced the blizzard. Again, I don't have the meteorological knowledge that you do, but I have watched time after time, year after year how patterns tend to repeat. I suspect that there is a high likelihood that this will be the case again. Please post the ensembles when they come out. They should be interesting to say the least. No problem, I wasn't calling you out...just letting you know that it's not BS. Verbatim it's very disorganized aloft and the surface low positioning and precipitation output does make sense. To put it simply, the GFS is shooting the first shortwave out to the northeast and the height field is de-amplfying as a result. The positive vorticity advection (PVA) from this vort heads northeast and the surface low redevelops to Western PA at 120 hours. Then, with that shortwave weakening, we are waiting for the enhanced lift over the Great Lakes to slide eastward and force coastal redevelopment..which doesn't occur until 138 hours. As a result you get a late developing system and a very disorganized cold conveyor belt...but we still get some enhanced snowfall as the shortwave passes to our south and southeast and then additional light to moderate stuff as the upper level system closes off near us at 150 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Pretty nice storm for everybody through 150 and still snowing. Looks like a SECS setup to me...the H5 depiction is nice but it's really not that awesome as far as getting heavy precipitation into this area. That is what when U get Spoiled with a 30" storm these standard 6-12 type storms just don't cut it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 my point was that everyone thinks they live in some classic snow hole. they can't all be classics. so much is perception and the "classic snowhole imby" posts on these forums are extremely common from everywhere. Well I think some people that live slightly inland have been a little bit frustrated with the past couple of winters. This is a discussion for another thread I suppose but I think there is some merit to the "snowhole" complainer posts. I'm guessing you have done pretty well though on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Well I think some people that live slightly inland have been a little bit frustrated with the past couple of winters. This is a discussion for another thread I suppose but I think there is some merit to the "snowhole" complainer posts. I'm guessing you have done pretty well though on LI. Yeah, totally agreed. The interior has been screwed the past couple of winters. I was thinking this would be a good winter for my house in the PA Poconos and crappy here, and yet it's been the exact opposite. Nothing on the ground there and still like 3" snow cover here. I can understand the frustration for those who average way more snowfall yet constantly have been losing out to the coastal plain that averages almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 That is what when U get Spoiled with a 30" storm these standard 6-12 type storms just don't cut it.. I guess you missed my post where I said I would love a light event. Man...is everybody here in a bad mood today? Everybody needs to simmer down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 There's considerably more ridging this run across western Canada at 108-132, leading to the S/W and vortex to dig further south and organize (although too late) into a storm. As Earthlight said, if there's more of a consolidated piece of energy vs. various vorts, there's much more likely to be a major storm further south. Also key is the ridging which brings it all south out of Canada. The GFS tends to key in on the wrong vort(s) at this stage and cause a messy solution that gets resolved in later runs. A ton of potential that probably ends up blowing up for someone, whether it be Newfoundland or us. All that energy won't just go out to sea with no effect given the baroclinicity still present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 We all have to go back to work tomorrow. I guess you missed my post where I said I would love a light event. Man...is everybody here in a bad mood today? Everybody needs to simmer down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The models are going to be so all over the place with this current set up. Vorts flying around a displaced PV, this is all just ripe for changes in model run to model run. No one should be investing an expectations in storms from the models now. Just understand the pattern is ripe for something soon and relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I guess you missed my post where I said I would love a light event. Man...is everybody here in a bad mood today? Everybody needs to simmer down. I am in a bad mood about the Giants..Weather wise I am fine and I was just joking around with you since U were in on the "Epic" snows this time last week while I was just on the outside looking in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The ensemble mean keeps wanting to redevelop over the Gulf Stream, way out to sea. This is the same thing the models did last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 18z GFS Ensembles are nothing special through 150 hrs..really the surface low is hundreds of miles off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I guess you missed my post where I said I would love a light event. Man...is everybody here in a bad mood today? Everybody needs to simmer down. Maybe theyre still getting over their new years hangovers lol. I think we need to put things in perspective-- we're doing really well compared to where most expected us to be at this point and with most forecasters predicting a mild January just a month ago and that probably not happening-- I think you can safely say this winter wont be like any mod-strong la ninas of the past 50 years lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah, totally agreed. The interior has been screwed the past couple of winters. I was thinking this would be a good winter for my house in the PA Poconos and crappy here, and yet it's been the exact opposite. Nothing on the ground there and still like 3" snow cover here. I can understand the frustration for those who average way more snowfall yet constantly have been losing out to the coastal plain that averages almost nothing. hey now we're supposed to average close to 30 inches a year Im taking out the 70s and 80s because we were incredibly unlucky back then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am in a bad mood about the Giants..Weather wise I am fine and I was just joking around with you since U were in on the "Epic" snows this time last week while I was just on the outside looking in.. theyre winning and the Packers are losing-- relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Maybe theyre still getting over their new years hangovers lol. I think we need to put things in perspective-- we're doing really well compared to where most expected us to be at this point and with most forecasters predicting a mild January just a month ago and that probably not happening-- I think you can safely say this winter wont be like any mod-strong la ninas of the past 50 years lol. In the late 1990s I would almost kill for a setup like we have now. And try living through another 01-02 with one light event for the whole winter!! People really seem to forget so fast how miserable winters were here in the not too distant past. A snowpack refreshener would be great for the time being. Despite the warm up, my backyard is still choked with up to a couple of feet of drifted snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 my point was that everyone thinks they live in some classic snow hole. they can't all be classics. so much is perception and the "classic snowhole imby" posts on these forums are extremely common from everywhere. Everybody 'Thinks' it, but not everybody is right. Last winter and this winter, there is no question that central northern Ct underperformed vs seasonal avgs. This last historic storm for instance, to the east of us and to the west of us received alot more snow. Normally, the Hartford area performs better than Westchester County, NY by about a foot... Not last year, and certainly not with the last storm, where they received ~ 350% more. Its a bit of a climatological anomaly, but it is what it is. This area definitely has been a relative snow hole recently. Is it the only one ? Of course not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 theyre winning and the Packers are losing-- relax See how long that lasts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The models are going to be so all over the place with this current set up. Vorts flying around a displaced PV, this is all just ripe for changes in model run to model run. No one should be investing an expectations in storms from the models now. Just understand the pattern is ripe for something soon and relax. I can't give up on this weekend storm until Tues. or Wed. at the earliest. Waiting paid off the last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Man, people are greedy these days. One inch of snow is fine for me. Take whatever snow you can get . Says the man who just came out of a blizzard. If you had to live with nickel and dime events while those around you got hammered, you'd feel different about 1-3. Anyway, for me I'd rather the 33 and rain as anything under 4-6 inches of snow is not worth the aggravation and mess it causes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 In the late 1990s I would almost kill for a setup like we have now. And try living through another 01-02 with one light event for the whole winter!! People really seem to forget so fast how miserable winters were here in the not too distant past. A snowpack refreshener would be great for the time being. Despite the warm up, my backyard is still choked with up to a couple of feet of drifted snow. How do you know we didn't have them back then? I remember checking the MRF and the NOGPS twice a day. Also the ETA to 48hr and the UK to 60. We had no intermediate runs and no ensembles. Favorable setups would have seemed more transient in the modeling with so much less information to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 What i find pretty amazing is that the 18 Z GFS just spit another solution out on to the table and one that is actually more favorable then the 12 Z run. Whether this run ends up being correct or not is another matter totally all together but what it does show is that this situation is far from settled and solved. While the big cities along the east coast on Dec 28th storm got anywhere from 12.4 inches to 20 inches in NYC...my particular area (KABE) received 2.8 inches. While this is a far cry from what i could of received I ended up with mere enjoyment from the situation because there had been so much talk and speculation on this board as well as other boards that you simply can not achieve something like this in a strong La Nina. Well, that talk and that speculation has been proven to be just that and it indeed did happen and as far as I am concerned this winter is actually unprecedented territory. If you are an avid hobbyist of the weather ..you almost have to be impressed at what is happening and once again that same over all pattern is back in place. It really is not as simple as saying this can not happen or will not happen because we are in a La Nina or because we have not received an x amount of snow in the past couple years. We are basically in uncharted territory this winter that has been defying ENSO status. This particular matter once again has so much energy floating around ..that small scale details will almost never get settled until we are in the shorter range. Just realize that the pattern has potential & wait until the small scale details can be better analyzed and modeled. Simply put right now things are still evolving and nothing is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 What i find pretty amazing is that the 18 Z GFS just spit another solution out on to the table and one that is actually more favorable then the 12 Z run. Whether this run ends up being correct or not is another matter totally all together but what it does show is that this situation is far from settled and solved. While the big cities along the east coast on Dec 28th storm got anywhere from 12.4 inches to 20 inches in NYC...my particular area (KABE) received 2.8 inches. While this is a far cry from what i could of received I ended up with mere enjoyment from the situation because there had been so much talk and speculation on this board as well as other boards that you simply can not achieve something like this in a strong La Nina. Well, that talk and that speculation has been proven to be just that and it indeed did happen and as far as I am concerned this winter is actually unprecedented territory. If you are an avid hobbyist of the weather ..you almost have to be impressed at what is happening and once again that same over all pattern is back in place. It really is not as simple as saying this can not happen or will not happen because we are in a La Nina or because we have not received an x amount of snow in the past couple years. We are basically in uncharted territory this winter that has been defying ENSO status. This particular matter once again has so much energy floating around ..that small scale details will almost never get settled until we are in the shorter range. Just realize that the pattern has potential & wait until the small scale details can be better analyzed and modeled. Simply put right now things are still evolving and nothing is off the table. Looks good to me. Somebody (?) will get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Interesting set-up with so many players on the field, all with the ability to make this a high-impact event (earlier coastal re-development), but as the 18z GFS shows, even a light event from a convoluted and disorganized set-up is definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Interesting set-up with so many players on the field, all with the ability to make this a high-impact event (earlier coastal re-development), but as the 18z GFS shows, even a light event from a convoluted and disorganized set-up is definitely possible. agreed 100% - trying to make a snowfall path and map with accumulations like some popular mets is risky with this setup 5 days out............almost guaranteed all models are mishandling various features at this point ... kind of similar to the last event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 18z GFS clipper track is much more favorable for something of significance in our area. The earlier tracks taking the low through NY/PA and off NJ were too far north for most of us. We need that low to exit near the Delmarva or further south, then bomb rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 "Amazing patterns" don't always yield a memorable storm. Personally, I'm keeping expectations low for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 How do you know we didn't have them back then? I remember checking the MRF and the NOGPS twice a day. Also the ETA to 48hr and the UK to 60. We had no intermediate runs and no ensembles. Favorable setups would have seemed more transient in the modeling with so much less information to look at. Fo one, modelling today is generally far superior to modelling back then, and also the NAO was in a positive state throughout the 80s and 90s. Given how negative it is now and how frequently blocks want to redevelop over Greenland, it bodes well for our chances in the long term. Without a doubt we'll have our share of disappointments, but our odds are much better with a -NAO than without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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