jdrenken Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Very, very interesting. As I have been saying for a few days now. Many things about this potential event have similarities to the previous one. Mainly how the models are wanting to develop the surface low out in the Gulf Stream as opposed to closer to the coast where in my humble opinion it is more likely to be, just as with the last event. I have seen many times in previous years how these patterns do tend to repeat. History does often repeat itself. The pattern does indeed repeat. Hence the LRC. However, in the same breath...this storm that everyone is talking about isn't going to be a repeat of 28DEC10. More likely a repeat of 17NOV10. 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Just checked in... Euro looks very interesting with the miller B bomb (destroys New england, NYC not out of the game) after that things look even better with miller A potential with a phase gonna be a good month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 With all due respect (and im really not being sarcastic) you don't really have a right to be asking someone to qualify their statement. Maybe that, too, is "self evident." Why can't he ask somebody the basis behind their statement? Not sure what you're getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Why can't he ask somebody the basis behind their statement? Not sure what you're getting at. Analog asked him to qualify his thoughts, and he couldn't, claiming it was self evident...that was all i was referring to, a small hypocrisy. eduggs is a great poster regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Analog asked him to qualify his thoughts, and he couldn't, claiming it was self evident...that was all i was referring to, a small hypocrisy. eduggs is a great poster regardless. Yeah, I think maybe we don't realize, and eduggs is one of the founding fathers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 It looks to me that at 500 mb at 108 hrs. we have a much better set up this time. The jet streak coming down form Canada this time is digging much more. This is looking much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Wow, at 120 hrs. this thing is digging WAY more. 500mb is MUCH better. This is like night and day in comparison to the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Wow, at 120 hrs. this thing is digging WAY more. 500mb is MUCH better. This is like night and day in comparison to the last run. The problems on the 18z lie in the lead vorticity over the Northeast pushing the baroclinic zone so far offshore..and the main shortwave that will get the redevelopment going lagging behind. This run will probably give everybody some snow though..through the 132-156 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 hr 123 light snow for phl-nyc on the 18z gfs hr 126 broad area of low pressure along the mason dixon line...light snow from phl-nyc hr 135 it does not get its act together until late...does not give sne much of a storm...extends a inverted trough feature back towards maine/ edit hr 144 has a inverted trough for phl-north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 set up looks nice.. most of the QPF ends up being in New England, but it's got a lot of potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The surface depiction does not match up with the awesome 500mb charts on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Pretty nice storm for everybody through 150 and still snowing. Looks like a SECS setup to me...the H5 depiction is nice but it's really not that awesome as far as getting heavy precipitation into this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I count AT LEAST 6 distinct shortwaves after day 3 that could directly impact our weather. And it looks like 3 or 4 rotating just around the PV days 4 and 5. This is very convoluted and likely to change dramatically from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 hr 153 total qpf is .25+ for the entire area including phl.....close to .50 for cnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Central NJ gets some good snows on this run, but again, the surface depiction is BS. This is likely to be an unreal event once the models figure out where everything should be at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Central NJ gets some good snows on this run, but again, the surface depiction is BS. This is likely to be an unreal event once the models figure out where everything should be at the surface. The surface depiction is not BS based on what the GFS is showing aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Also, talk about a cold season system...H5 heights are 504dm closed off Montauk by ~150hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The CT dryslot is pretty comical. Typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 You can see at 114 hours how the system becomes a bit disorganized. The first northern stream feature heading towards the OH Valley could trend stronger, and then the PV retrograde could amplify things dramatically..but as it is, it doesn't do much for us. I will take .25" liquid and a refresh snowpack any day, though. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f114.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 With all due respect (and im really not being sarcastic) you don't really have a right to be asking someone to qualify their statement. Maybe that, too, is "self evident." I'm not due any special respect. But it's silly to talk about whether or not I have a right to say something. I'm just trying to encourage people to be more precise with their comments and assertions. There are a lot of myths about what constitutes a "red flag" and how best to interpret ensemble modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm not due any special respect. But it's silly to talk about whether or not I have a right to say something. I'm just trying to encourage people to be more precise with their comments and assertions. There are a lot of myths about what constitutes a "red flag" and how best to interpret ensemble modeling. Strongly agree...this is what I thought you were saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Would be nice to freshen up the snow pack..then have the cold rush in.....like john said last night this is a very inersting situation....and somthing that will not be iron out until 48-72 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Way too many vorts flying around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am saying it is BS because it can't figure out the aloft part yet. I think when it finally does, the end result will be much better for us. I could be wrong, but that is my take on what is going on here. The surface depiction is not BS based on what the GFS is showing aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Would be nice to freshen up the snow pack..then have the cold rush in.....like john said last night this is a very inersting situation....and somthing that will not be iron out until 48-72 hrs out I'll take that a step further and say the potential is there for a big one here if we can get things more organized. As it is the GFS remains a disorganized mess with it's shortwave evolution and you're not going to get big snows like that unless you're in Maine. That being said, and I made a post about this a minute ago, the shortwave over OH has me excited if it can get more involved here. Also...if you loop through the H5 charts you can see how much the northern canada blocking which is retrograding from greenland/baffin island southwestward is really pressing on the pattern and forcing the PV southward. That's another wildcard in this type of situation. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f114.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The CT dryslot is pretty comical. Typical. what's comical is how EVERYONE thinks this about where they live. seriously...everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Total Precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am saying it is BS because it can't figure out the aloft part yet. I think when it finally does, the end result will be much better for us. I could be wrong, but that is my take on what is going on here. No problem, I wasn't calling you out...just letting you know that it's not BS. Verbatim it's very disorganized aloft and the surface low positioning and precipitation output does make sense. To put it simply, the GFS is shooting the first shortwave out to the northeast and the height field is de-amplfying as a result. The positive vorticity advection (PVA) from this vort heads northeast and the surface low redevelops to Western PA at 120 hours. Then, with that shortwave weakening, we are waiting for the enhanced lift over the Great Lakes to slide eastward and force coastal redevelopment..which doesn't occur until 138 hours. As a result you get a late developing system and a very disorganized cold conveyor belt...but we still get some enhanced snowfall as the shortwave passes to our south and southeast and then additional light to moderate stuff as the upper level system closes off near us at 150 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 what's comical is how EVERYONE thinks this about where they live. seriously...everybody. What's wrong with caring about how it looks for where you live? I mean obviously I'm not going to take a 168 hr prog from the GFS seriously but I don't see why that's so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 What's wrong with caring about how it looks for where you live? I mean obviously I'm not going to take a 168 hr prog from the GFS seriously but I don't see why that's so bad. my point was that everyone thinks they live in some classic snow hole. they can't all be classics. so much is perception and the "classic snowhole imby" posts on these forums are extremely common from everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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