NaoPos Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 hr 180, broad 1008 -1010 just off SC coast... light precip in carolinas.. mod offshore.. Heights rising along the east coast, although not too sharp.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 NYC gets .70" qpf on the dot 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Very close to developing a big system at 186 hrs..it's been very close for three runs now so I think it's definitely something to keep an eye on. As it is..it's probably too far east as the flow is too flat initially and the PV doesn't retrograde west fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 192hr H5 chart is ridiculous...the polar vortex is sitting over Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 186, lp tightning up, 1008 mb, barely moved from last position.. maybe 75miles NE/Ne 192, lp still at 1008mb, just eats of lower OBX, ligh to mod precip offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Very close to developing a big system at 186 hrs..it's been very close for three runs now so I think it's definitely something to keep an eye on. As it is..it's probably too far east as the flow is too flat initially and the PV doesn't retrograde west fast enough. At this range, it would definitely be worth keeping an eye on, at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 192hr H5 chart is ridiculous...the polar vortex is sitting over Minnesota How cold are H85 temps across the Northern CONUS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 6-10" probably 4-6" with the BL temps on the warmish side starting out at +1.4C then only down to +1C for beginning of next 6 hrs .26" falls within first 6 hrs when its +1.4C and then .34" falls w/a 1C just seems to me that you would be getting so lousy accumulations with those temps taking it verbatim and not adjusting for bias, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 192hr H5 chart is ridiculous...the polar vortex is sitting over Minnesota I wonder if that PV spits outs any s/w's in the future. def something to keep an eye on. For as progressive as h5 looks, that lp takes it time moving from FL to NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 How cold are H85 temps across the Northern CONUS? -20 in the northern plains ..sharp gradient anywhere east of Ohio as that's where the higher heights are aloft and the amplification is trying to occur..the PV is dropping south though (this is at 198 hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 -20 in the northern plains ..sharp gradient anywhere east of Ohio as that's where the higher heights are aloft and the amplification is trying to occur..the PV is dropping south though (this is at 198 hrs) Should make for a good cold outbreak after we get another HECS following the weekend Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 204 hrs the surface low is well off the coast..but the shortwave situation is a mess as the initial one just missed getting tugged in. As a result we have light precipitation everywhere with a surface low 300 miles away at the infamous 30/70 benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 204 hrs the surface low is well off the coast..but the shortwave situation is a mess as the initial one just missed getting tugged in. As a result we have light precipitation everywhere with a surface low 300 miles away at the infamous 30/70 benchmark 30/70? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 210 hrs here comes the PV dropping in rapidly..it's almost like a psuedo-miller b capture..lol. This is wacky. Light to moderate snow DC..VA..PA..through NYC..NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Shortwave finally does it's work at 216 hrs..sfc low redevelops near the benchmark. Heavy snow along the Jersey shore..moderate snow everywhere else from DC northeast. Really cool solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 hr 204 lp 300miles eats of outer banks.. 1004mb... looks like some light precip breaking out across oh valley 210 lp just sitting there in previous spot... light precip over pa,md,de,va... 216 now a double lp center just S/ SE of benchmark.. 992.. light -mod precip inside b.m.. light-mod precip coastal areas , heavier stuff coastal NJ AC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 192 hrs low just off the southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 More of the same at 222 hrs. It's in fantasy land..but I guess we can all enjoy the day now that the Euro shows two snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 whoever asked about 850 temps, 1-95 corridor stays between -4 to -10 throughout the run... Midwest gets about -20 in this run.... PV starts to shift east towards lakes at 216.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looks like the area of low pressure at 192 hours almost moves due North... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Nice ridge building out west towards the end of the run fwiw.. 570 h5 line running just west of Seattle.. (hr 240) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Been Busy the past few days can anyone give a quick Recap of what we are looking at here in terms of storm chances ? Are we looking at next weekend or beyond or both ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Not sure about 2mb temps, but 850's are frigid. Wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 6-10" No, .7 liquid. Why does everybody convert liquid equivalent when we know that: 1) Model QPF is statistically the lowest verifiable parameter and 2) The model broad brushes QPF so a forecast of .7 has a spatial and statistical median quartile range of approx. .4-1.3 (just consider model progs vs. outcomes in NYC vicinity for the past storm). 3) We can't assume ptype and ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 No, .7 liquid. Why does everybody convert liquid equivalent when we know that: 1) Model QPF is statistically the lowest verifiable parameter and 2) The model broad brushes QPF so a forecast of .7 has a spatial and statistical median quartile range of approx. .4-1.3 (just consider model progs vs. outcomes in NYC vicinity for the past storm). 3) We can't assume ptype and ratios That's a guess based on the QPF output, nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 No, .7 liquid. Why does everybody convert liquid equivalent when we know that: 1) Model QPF is statistically the lowest verifiable parameter and 2) The model broad brushes QPF so a forecast of .7 has a spatial and statistical median quartile range of approx. .4-1.3 (just consider model progs vs. outcomes in NYC vicinity for the past storm). 3) We can't assume ptype and ratios In this complex pattern and at this time range-- its all pretty much a crapshoot. Just glad to have the cold air here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The pattern's going to be somewhat odd, I'm sure things will get straightened out as we get closer. One thing that will probably be close by is the cold air. I see zero signs of a stabilized warmer pattern. Instead, it will probably get colder as the month goes by. I think I'll get lower than the 13F that I've seen in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The pattern's going to be somewhat odd, I'm sure things will get straightened out as we get closer. One thing that will probably be close by is the cold air. I see zero signs of a stabilized warmer pattern. Instead, it will probably get colder as the month goes by. I think I'll get lower than the 13F that I've seen in December. Do you think it will get as cold as what the 0z GFS depicted? People were talking about Jan 1994 revisited in another thread lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Anyone who is discounting this potential from Jan 6 - 11 apparently has a short memory. Most model at some point in the last few days has showed a major storm for the Northern Mid Atlantic North. One discounter is guess who - this has to be the most ridicoulus forecast around right now... http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/43830/two-snow-events-and-extremely-cold-weather.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Anyone who is discounting this potential from Jan 6 - 11 apparently has a short memory. Most model at some point in the last few days has showed a major storm for the Northern Mid Atlantic North. One discounter is guess who - this has to be the most ridicoulus forecast around right now... http://www.accuweath...old-weather.asp Henry loves to color with the blue crayon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.