Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Have you been in a car accident before in 1-3 inches of snow? I have been hit twice and nearly killed by people who were driving too fast for the conditions. The problem is that when you only get 1-3 inches, people drive around and go shopping and act as if nothing happened, driving too fast and so on. When you get more snow, people stay home or drive slower when they are out. That is a fact and is why I hate getting 1-3 inches of snow. You can keep it. I would much prefer rain and 33 than 1-3 inches of snow any day. 1-3 inches of snow is just enough to mess things up and that is about it. A lot of younger posters only like big events. I'm not specifically talking about Ace or Jasonli. I think the younger posters are looking for days off from school. How can u want rain and 33 over 2"-3" of beatiful, fresh snowfall and a panoramic landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I don't get why people are still complaining. I'm fully satisfied after the cold December and big snowstorm. Unless you live in that snow hole in PA, there's no reason to complain and why would anyone trust the gfs beyond 5 days. Also don't forget, January was supposed to torch remember. We weren't supposed to have a big Miller A storm this winter, remember. Quit whining and just get on with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Digging out from the blizzard was tough. Not sure if I'm ready for another one of those yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Digging out from the blizzard was tough. Not sure if I'm ready for another one of those yet. +3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Have you been in a car accident before in 1-3 inches of snow? I have been hit twice and nearly killed by people who were driving too fast for the conditions. The problem is that when you only get 1-3 inches, people drive around and go shopping and act as if nothing happened, driving too fast and so on. When you get more snow, people stay home or drive slower when they are out. That is a fact and is why I hate getting 1-3 inches of snow. You can keep it. People will drive with anything under 6". They don't realize it's the same danger. Snow always causes accidents. 2", 6" or 15". All hazardous. Schools don't close. That's the only difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I just can't see how some people cling to every model run. In six hours it will be different. This is not that bad of a run!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Well, I completely disagree and I have seen research that backs up my statements. People will drive with anything under 6". They don't realize it's the same danger. Snow always causes accidents. 2", 6" or 15". All hazardous. Schools don't close. That's the only difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Did you see the 0z run? If you did, you would understand why people are feeling the way they are at the moment. Plus, as we get closer to the event the consensus is starting to form against most of the potential that existed for not only this event, but future potential events as well. I just can't see how some people cling to every model run. In six hours it will be different. This is not that bad of a run!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 12z GEFS looks south and east......this miller b threat is quickly becoming a disorganized mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I would prefer rain and 33. 1-3 inches is just enough to mess the roads up and that is about it. In comparison to previous runs of the GFS, this run looks boring as heck. It seemed that there was a lot of potential here and in other pending events, but it is now starting to look less likely for all future events as well. Boring. One run of the GFS out to 384 hours has convinced you of that? Models have struggled out to 48 hours this year and you want to ride one GFS run that shows little. To each his own i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 A bunch of cry babies in this thread....how the hell are we coming to a answer 5-6 days out? last storm went from 0-20 in a 48 hr period....the last two pages of this thread are a perfect example why this sub forum get a bad rap....every storm will with not be a block buster....this type of set-up we will prob not iron out the details until 72 hrs out...my call 2-4 for nyc and 1-3 for phl......you dont like it and want to complain leave the board...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I just can't see how some people cling to every model run. In six hours it will be different. This is not that bad of a run!!! Yep. And in 6 hours when the 18z runs show a entirely different picture 2 weeks out, the cliff jumpers will turn into weenies. Happens every year. That's why most sensible people don't put much stock in anything past 5-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Did you see the 0z run? If you did, you would understand why people are feeling the way they are at the moment. Plus, as we get closer to the event the consensus is starting to form against most of the potential that existed for not only this event, but future potential events as well. Yes I did. It seems like some people take the best, and most extreme model run, and cling to that run. Trust me, I would love to have 0z gfs verify, but you have to be somewhat realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 A bunch of cry babies in this thread....how the hell are we coming to a answer 5-6 days out? last storm went from 0-20 in a 48 hr period....the last two pages of this thread are a perfect example why this sub forum get a bad rap....every storm will with not be a block buster....this type of set-up we will prob not iron out the details until 72 hrs out...my call 2-4 for nyc and 1-3 for phl......you dont like it and want to complain leave the board...... Great post. Unbelievable what a GFS run can do to people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Did you see the 0z run? If you did, you would understand why people are feeling the way they are at the moment. Plus, as we get closer to the event the consensus is starting to form against most of the potential that existed for not only this event, but future potential events as well. Get a hold of yourself, man. http://www.youtube.c...feature=related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 A bunch of cry babies in this thread....how the hell are we coming to a answer 5-6 days out? last storm went from 0-20 in a 48 hr period....the last two pages of this thread are a perfect example why this sub forum get a bad rap....every storm will with not be a block buster....this type of set-up we will prob not iron out the details until 72 hrs out...my call 2-4 for nyc and 1-3 for phl......you dont like it and want to complain leave the board...... Thank you. Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 A bunch of cry babies in this thread....how the hell are we coming to a answer 5-6 days out? last storm went from 0-20 in a 48 hr period....the last two pages of this thread are a perfect example why this sub forum get a bad rap....every storm will with not be a block buster....this type of set-up we will prob not iron out the details until 72 hrs out...my call 2-4 for nyc and 1-3 for phl......you dont like it and want to complain leave the board...... +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Wow.. By reading some of these post you would think the world is coming to an end.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 A bunch of cry babies in this thread....how the hell are we coming to a answer 5-6 days out? last storm went from 0-20 in a 48 hr period....the last two pages of this thread are a perfect example why this sub forum get a bad rap....every storm will with not be a block buster....this type of set-up we will prob not iron out the details until 72 hrs out...my call 2-4 for nyc and 1-3 for phl......you dont like it and want to complain leave the board...... Amen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I don't get why people are still complaining. I'm fully satisfied after the cold December and big snowstorm. Unless you live in that snow hole in PA, there's no reason to complain and why would anyone trust the gfs beyond 5 days. Hi. 1-3" would be crap. It'd be the same as the last storm. And like others said, all it does is mess the roads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Hi. 1-3" would be crap. It'd be the same as the last storm. And like others said, all it does is mess the roads up. I think it all comes down to expectation. When you're waiting and hoping for a blizzard, 11" is profoundly disappointing. But when you're expecting flurries, 1-3" is bliss. Some of my favorite snows have been of the latter variety, primarily because they over-performed. This has not and continues not to look like a major snow producer for this area. But it offers a good chance for widespread light snow and a small chance for something better - so I track it. 500mb centers near or below 500dm rarely cross the US-Canadian border. So I've watched the past days' succession of runs with a mixture of suspicion and delight. Still time to improve but odds are AGAINST. I will take my burst of mod snow .5 vis and the refreshed wintry look it will bring and look toward to more threats in the pipeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I can't believe people seem to be disappointed already after we just received in some cases a 25"+ snowstorm, and we're still tracking the 120 hour GFS. Setups of this nature haven't occured in entire DECADES, and we now seem to have them every year. Just that is quite noteworthy, and even if this threat doesn't pan out we have much more winter to go if the -NAO setup lingers. The one problem I have and the main reason why I don't see this low plunging far enough south to give us a major event is the lack of a West Coast ridge steep enough to pull it down. There is a ridge there but it doesn't get far enough north to pull the large upper low south very much. Also, the southern stream doesn't look to get heavily involved. I'm definitely on the minor to moderate snow event bandwagon from the clipper out of Canada at this time. If we see the ridge poke into Canada a little bit further, the upper air low will likely dive further south and produce a more noteworthy event here. We also have to watch how progressive the southern feature is. If it can progress east faster and get involved with the northern stream low, then obviously it would spark a major storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 after the snow storm on 12/30/2000 there was a minor event about a week later and a storm on 1/20 of 6"...We are getting spoiled after last year and the start of this year's mega storms...I'm riding this wave until it crashes onto the shore...The next mega storm might come next week or next decade...I won't be surprised if it's next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 132 hrs on Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 144hrs on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 144hrs on the Canadian. Eh??? I am not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Kind of looks like what John AKA Tip said on the main forum not to long ago All in all, the 00z suite (and what I have seen of the 06z) was not stellar on a lot of this 'what needs to happen'. The system is still there and should not be discounted... In any event, we should soon encounter an interval of model blackout where for some reason they unilaterally drop the system altogether, ...only to bring it back with a fervent vengeance some day or day and half later. Don't be surprised if that happens either. I like the fact that the teleconnector modalities still support a system, however. Do not know whether thats going to be accurate or not in this case but we seen what happened with the most recent system that laid a blanket of snow along the east coast go thru myriads of totally missing and not happening to come back as we got closer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think it all comes down to expectation. When you're waiting and hoping for a blizzard, 11" is profoundly disappointing. But when you're expecting flurries, 1-3" is bliss. Some of my favorite snows have been of the latter variety, primarily because they over-performed. This has not and continues not to look like a major snow producer for this area. But it offers a good chance for widespread light snow and a small chance for something better - so I track it. 500mb centers near or below 500dm rarely cross the US-Canadian border. So I've watched the past days' succession of runs with a mixture of suspicion and delight. Still time to improve but odds are AGAINST. I will take my burst of mod snow .5 vis and the refreshed wintry look it will bring and look toward to more threats in the pipeline. I would be very happy with a couple fresh inches of snow to freshen up the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Tip is one of the biggest met weenies behind Analog and will probably be the next met to win WOTY. The fact of the matter is that we have a totally different solution at 12 Z today which is something that i believe i pointed out last night after the 00z model runs came in. This pattern is completely complicated and contains alot of energy so its actually quite normal for the models to go thru solution to solution. This event or non event may or may not happen but its not going to be because of what people want or do not want but rather because the timing of the players never morphs together . Also keep in mind to that if we are talking about a purely northern stream disturbance that disturbance would be coming from somewhere that we have little to no RAOB data & would not become clearer to closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Must be something nice to say from someone that does not have a red tag. I am sure each one of them has a red tag for a reason and the weenie tag is something all in jest to my understanding and if its not then it is something that should not even be done considering they are Pro Mets. The fact of the matter is that we have a totally different solution at 12 Z today which is something that i believe i pointed out last night after the 00z model runs came in. This pattern is completely complicated and contains alot of energy so its actually quite normal for the models to go thru solution to solution. This event or non event may or may not happen but its not going to be because of what people want or do not want but rather because the timing of the players never morphs together . Also keep in mind to that if we are talking about a purely northern stream disturbance that disturbance would be coming from somewhere that we have little to no RAOB data & would not become clearer to closer to the event. Very well put! I guarantee you many of the non-mets who come in here and constantly criticize mets wouldn't last 2 semesters in met school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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