CooL Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 tombo, what's the qpf look like on the euro? i figure the 0z outcome, as realistic as it is, is probably the worst we would see, so it's good to have a minimum set. very very weak for the mid atlantic, about .1 which is probably from the clipper maine gets owned though and thats about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 very very weak for the mid atlantic, about .1 which is probably from the clipper maine gets owned though and thats about it i know we've already exhausted discussion on whether or not a Miller B screws Philly, but right now I'm only anticipating a Clipper Friday. i was hoping for more like .2 or .3 but oh well. Miller B could still happen. Triple phase could even still happen. But if neither of those happen, we at least get Clipper snows which is fine with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 the indiv gfs ens means are a lot wetter for this area compared to the 18z ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 im not sure which model is going to be right, nor will i throw any model out. As of now its the gfs,ggem,nogaps vs ukie and euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 deff. some interesting scenarios on the indiv ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 deff. some interesting scenarios on the indiv ens Am I reading these maps correctly? Raleightwx graphics are showing a few mid-940mb lows and several 960s... and I don't mean up in the Canadian Maritimes. P003 is absurd. WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 ECM means look pretty similar to the GFS means ... GFS means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 6zGFS shows basically nothing from Florida to Maine for next week through next weekend, sure it may change for SNE, wouldn't hold my breath NYC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 You need to put qualifiers on that statement......nobody south of central NJ is excited about that really. PHL does exist in this sub-forum too. Anybody who doesn't get excited by this should probably leave the forum until April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 See my earlier reply regarding Miller B's.....they usually do result in significant snows in the PHL area....just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 You need to put qualifiers on that statement......nobody south of central NJ is excited about that really. PHL does exist in this sub-forum too. i think its more than just that.......the overall pattern for the near future.......DT is very excited too if you check out his website or facebook page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 What is amazing is that the 6z Operational run of the GFS seems to continue to be on the north side of the ensemble members exiting the coast and redeveloping. It definitely appears to me that redevelopment will take place off shore of the DelMarva. The question is where does it cut off? Many of these individual ensemble members are really excellent for our area and most look much better than the operational run. The operational run actually looks like an outlier. Hopefully the next operational run will portray a better scenario for us, and it very well may. 6 of the 12 members have more than .25 precip for the area, and 3 of the members have more than 1 inch qpf for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Agree that 06 ensembles trended opposite of 06 Op run. with offshore development further south. 12z run could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Spag plots for both the GEFS and Euro ens. reveal that they are much stronger with the low than the OP run, many are actually sub 980. Theres a ton of energy flying around here, and with our big player coming out of the far north, I wouldnt expect a solution any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 anybody have analysis on the GFS throuhg hr150? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 alright guys, im heading to the eagles game, so i wont be doing the euro...the 12z gfs looks alright, givrs the area 1-3 inches higher northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 anybody have analysis on the GFS throuhg hr150? it doesnt look good. and the next event doesnt look all that promising either (jan 11-13) and further down the road the block isnt there and it doesnt have that super cold look.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 it doesnt look good. and the next event doesnt look all that promising either (jan 11-13) What's wrong with 1"-3"? Some are too spoiled on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 What's wrong with 1"-3"? Some are too spoiled on this board. 1 to 3 inches is a BS storm. I'm not spoiled for thinking that. It doesn't mean we need a foot every time...but anything under ~5 inches really does not get my interest going, and I'm sure many on the board are with me on that...just like many will disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 1 to 3 inches is a BS storm. I'm not spoiled for thinking that. It doesn't mean we need a foot every time...but anything under ~5 inches really does not get my interest going, and I'm sure many on the board are with me on that...just like many will disagree. That's fine. To each their own. There is nothing wrong with 2"-3" of fresh snow to whiten up the landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 That's fine. To each their own. There is nothing wrong with 2"-3" of fresh snow to whiten up the landscape. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 What's wrong with 1"-3"? Some are too spoiled on this board. why would one want 1-3"??? not to mention- the comment was based on comparing prior runs of the GFS vs the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 1 to 3 is fine with me. It's better than cold and dry or rain and 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 1 to 3 inches is a BS storm. I'm not spoiled for thinking that. It doesn't mean we need a foot every time...but anything under ~5 inches really does not get my interest going, and I'm sure many on the board are with me on that...just like many will disagree. i agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 1 to 3 is fine with me. It's better than cold and dry or rain and 33. yes...but dont worry the GFS in the long term doesnt look all that cold. it might start to show it getting colder after hour 276 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 it doesnt look good. and the next event doesnt look all that promising either (jan 11-13) and further down the road the block isnt there and it doesnt have that super cold look.... Grow up and dont be selfish as usual - Ace hasn't changed!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I would prefer rain and 33. 1-3 inches is just enough to mess the roads up and that is about it. In comparison to previous runs of the GFS, this run looks boring as heck. It seemed that there was a lot of potential here and in other pending events, but it is now starting to look less likely for all future events as well. Boring. 1 to 3 is fine with me. It's better than cold and dry or rain and 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Man, people are greedy these days. One inch of snow is fine for me. Take whatever snow you can get . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 A lot of younger posters only like big events. I'm not specifically talking about Ace or Jasonli. I think the younger posters are looking for days off from school. How can u want rain and 33 over 2"-3" of beautiful, fresh snowfall and a stunning, painting like landscape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Grow up and dont be selfish as usual - Ace hasn't changed!!! how is this selfish? do you not process information like an intelligent adult? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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