green tube Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The only problem is that we are getting spoiled by these winters lately. Remember just a few years ago? Don't remind me. I grew up during the 80's when winters did not exist. meh. the 80s lacked excitement, but there was considerable amounts of extreme cold in the first half of the 80s, largely unseen since. and while there wasnt any real big snow years (except perhaps for 87 in some areas), there weren't many "snowless" winters.... like 2007 and 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 0z UKMET. At least it is further south with the re-development, but it looks like it is doing the same thing it did with the last storm, developing it WAY too far out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 through 66 the s/w in the sw a piece of it has broken off the main energy quicker than 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Tombo.... did the run get stuck, or is nothing interesting happening? Love your model rollout descriptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 meh. the 80s lacked excitement, but there was considerable amounts of extreme cold in the first half of the 80s, largely unseen since. and while there wasnt any real big snow years (except perhaps for 87 in some areas), there weren't many "snowless" winters.... like 2007 and 2008. agreed............i even remember having off of school one day just cause the high was 0 and i think the low was like -6 or something close.......that is pretty cold around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Tombo.... did the run get stuck, or is nothing interesting happening? Love your model rollout descriptions. nothing interesting really..the euro basically has no southern storm at all through hr 96..except for some lgt to mod precip in the northern gom and panhandle of fl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 through hr 108 euro is much weaker with low over the great lakes. Sub 1000 compared to sub 992 at 12z...its also further south centered on the thumb of mich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 hr 120 has a sub 996 low just bout to go over lake ontario...lgt precip from ky northeast to new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 big diff at h5 from 12z euro to 0z euro, h5 low on 12z euro was stornger and centered over buffalo area...0z has a lot weaker h5 low that is strung out centered bout 200 miles south of the tip of the hudson bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Broad area of low pressure starting to take shape off the NJ coast at 132 hrs. Light precip from Maryland to Maine. And then that heads out to sea with light precip from NYC to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 hr 132 has a sub broad area of sub 996 low about 150 miles south of the bm...lgt precip phl and nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Guess we'll have to endure many run to run differences until the final solution lets itself be known. Seems like deja vu all over again, as they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Actually starts to curve back for CT to Maine at 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 hr 138 has a sub 992 low about 150 miles ese of the bm...no precip over the area...sne has some lgt to mod precip....strong clipper diving into mn, sub 1000 over west central mn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Well, at least Maine gets it good. Still light snow from CT to moderate snow in Maine at 150 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 hr 150, only area that gets hit decently is maine....the coastal misses everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yes, this was a bummer. Definitely not worth staying up for. hr 150, only area that gets hit decently is maine....the coastal misses everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Maine is still getting pummeled at 168 hrs. 1-2 feet for Maine. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am not sure if the same thing applies with the NOGAPS to the ECM with the evolution of these type of systems but i find it odd that the 00z ECM is actually more south and east then the 00z NOGAPS... NOGAPS Especially with what shows as secondary development over VA @ 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 This is eerily similar to what happened with the EC, and UKMET last week developing the system too far out to sea. They want to go for that Gulf stream too much. Probably in error. I am not sure if the same thing applies with the NOGAPS to the ECM with the evolution of these type of systems but i find it odd that the 00z ECM is actually more south and east then the 00z NOGAPS... NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS ensemble mean looks just like the EC. Are the models wanting too much to head for the Gulf Stream again I wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 When you have the NOGAPS wound up and inland, and the EC out to sea. Man, you just have to wonder. What the heck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 How does the euro look in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Who really knows how things will turn out next week but it's sure looking to be pretty epic. We may get several moderate events and a very cold pattern for a huge chunk of January. God forbid we see another big phase or it's off to the HECS'IS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Cold and dry. How does the euro look in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 This is eerily similar to what happened with the EC, and UKMET last week developing the system too far out to sea. They want to go for that Gulf stream too much. Probably in error. Looks like to me there's some southern stream energy that gets ahead of the PV that is responsible for the surface low placement to the east. Tough to see from the maps that I'm looking at but it appears that there's a late phase which is perfectly fine if this was a thread for SNE. I think the LP placement is realistic given the features at work. Not terribly far away from the GFS, but the PV evolution is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Models across the board are bringing the 500mb low right over Pa, which looks like a good possibility without a phase. This one looks DOA south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Models across the board are bringing the 500mb low right over Pa, which looks like a good possibility without a phase. This one looks DOA south of NYC. With 120 hours out and changing model solutions ..I am really not sure if one could say that this system is DOA south of NYC. It pretty much seems to me that the models are not able to handle all the energy associated with the PV. It also has to raise a red flag when the NOGAPS..is more NW then other guidance. I think we see yet a different solution on models at 12 Z...Overall general pattern agreement but differ on small scale details where it counts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 tombo, what's the qpf look like on the euro? i figure the 0z outcome, as realistic as it is, is probably the worst we would see, so it's good to have a minimum set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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