Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I actually think Ji that will be the one to really watch. The one later this week looks kind of odd and strange to me. Agreed, BUT what IF those pieces timed the phase perfectly? It DOES make me wonder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Agreed, BUT what IF those pieces timed the phase perfectly? It DOES make me wonder! Oh that reminds me... Congratulations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Agreed, BUT what IF those pieces timed the phase perfectly? It DOES make me wonder! Agreed. Was this the first time the GFS showed any southern stream system moving through late this week? I know the Euro showed it for a couple of runs and i believe the GGEM has been showing some southern stream system moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 At this point I'm pulling for NYC to come in with a top 10 coldest winter on record...we need both Jan and Feb to average below 28 to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Agreed. Was this the first time the GFS showed any southern stream system moving through late this week? I know the Euro showed it for a couple of runs and i believe the GGEM has been showing some southern stream system moving through. Kind of reminds me of what just went down last week, no? All of a sudden, Southern Stream energy got into the mix, and BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 At this point I'm pulling for NYC to come in with a top 10 coldest winter on record...we need both Jan and Feb to average below 28 to do it I would be more sure of historic snow than historic cold at this point. For whatever reason, it's been hard to get extreme cold in the past few years. Consistent cold? Yes. Extreme cold? Less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 granted its not going to verify, but its pure entertainment on the gfs the cold air it brings down from canada into the US...sub 474 thickness just above the us border, ouch...then after a snowstorm it places the pv over new england sub 504 thickness phl north..sub 486 in northern maine...850 temps -20 to -24 wow Yeah, GFS hr 390 would be below 0F for NYC and PHL and probably -15F in the burbs with fresh snow cover. I'd be impressed with single numbers from any of the major reporting stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah, GFS hr 390 would be below 0F for NYC and PHL and probably -15F in the burbs with fresh snow cover. I'd be impressed with single numbers from any of the major reporting stations. To me, we need single digits in order to qualify any winter as a "classic" winter. That was the one thing missing from last winter, was true cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yes, me too. I mean seriously. This run is insane. This reminds me of the winter of 1993-1994. Look at the over-running snows it brings the following weekend. Amazing. Agreed, BUT what IF those pieces timed the phase perfectly? It DOES make me wonder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yes, me too. I mean seriously. This run is insane. This reminds me of the winter of 1993-1994. Look at the over-running snows it brings the following weekend. Amazing. That DOES have a Feb 1994 look to it! VERY cold air North of the border, not much of a low pressure system, and you just get moisture due to the thermal contrast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 And look at what the NOGAPS is starting to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I would be more sure of historic snow than historic cold at this point. For whatever reason, it's been hard to get extreme cold in the past few years. Consistent cold? Yes. Extreme cold? Less likely. I agree with this. And if you look at long term trends - QPF is increasing annually and seasonally, and temperatures are increasing as well. I expect this to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I agree with this. And if you look at long term trends - QPF is increasing annually and seasonally, and temperatures are increasing as well. I expect this to continue. I think it's premature to say it will just "continue". We very well COULD be in a cycle right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The NOGAPS is trying to have a 2/25 redemption redux for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 And my goodness, look at the NOGAPS at 180 hrs. Oh My. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I wonder if the NOGAPS has ever had an I-95 snow event at 180 hours that did not ultimately wind up in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Not absolutely frigid, but cold enough. EURO at 168 GFS at 168 While these don't indicate subzero temperatures within 10 days, they do show a very cold look. With or without snowcover, highs will likely be in the mid 20s or so, and lows in the teens. With snowcover, that's a look that would support single digit lows, at least in the suburbs. Beyond a week or so, things look more interesting--I know several have been harping on the potential between the 11th and 14th, which certainly looks great at the moment. With a resurgent STJ, who knows... but a period of sustained cold looks likely to begin tomorrow through to...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think it's premature to say it will just "continue". We very well COULD be in a cycle right now! That's true. In fact I'm sure we're in some kind of cycle - probably several different cycles superimposed. But I suspect the overall upward temperature trend is irreversible for a variety of reasons. I'm less sure about the increase in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Nogaps shows how ripe the setup is for rapid SLP bombing. I hope the vortex is as deep and potent as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 0Z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Took a few days off but I am glad to return to see a threat of winter weather. It seems we have a PV setup on our hands and those are always extremely difficult to forecast. At this range, you might as well pick a solution out of the grab bag. Guidance just can't handle the vorticity moving around the fast flow and the Polar Vortex itself. That being said, it's definitely good to see the GFS modeling the potential for a light snow event as soon as 102-ish hours. I'm sure all of us will take it. Problem with that setup is the baroclinic zone displacement. I think there's too much being made of the primary surface low position in the Great Lakes. This is a polar vortex with a ton of energy to work with...and it's early to mid January. The surface low in the lakes isn't going to have much of a negative impact with the modeled H5 heights and H85 temps near or below -10 C. Still, I have to say this. If the modeling is near correct...I am extremely, extremely excited. There is absolutely brilliant Miller B snow potential here with a big shortwave coming out of Alberta and getting an extra southward boost from the big PV gyre. The Miller B potential is going to be displaced to the south if it does occur in this time frame given the degree of blocking over Baffin Island and even back into Central Canada. Potential exists for significant redevelopment given this upper air chart. I'll say this...we will see some mouth watering model solutions the next 2-4 days. Consider me interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 0.53" QPF over 57 hours per the 0z GFS raw data for KPNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 0.53" QPF over 57 hours per the 0z GFS raw data for KPNE Did you see the temps at the end of the run? BELOW ZERO everywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Best GFS run in awhile. I love it. Cold January! About fooking time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Did you see the temps at the end of the run? BELOW ZERO everywhere! yea just WOW -5° F, 850's -22 C, 507 thickness! this is what I missed last winter, those truly bitter cold days. too bad the GFS was throwing out temps like this back in November already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 gfs totals out to hr 120 on clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Anybody who doesn't get excited by this should probably leave the forum until April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Winterwarlock? I kid. Looks like a gr8 pattern for NMA and NE. Anybody who doesn't get excited by this should probably leave the forum until April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 John, I was going to go to sleep until I saw the GFS. Now I await the EC. No sleep. This is exciting. Anybody who doesn't get excited by this should probably leave the forum until April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The only problem is that we are getting spoiled by these winters lately. Remember just a few years ago? Don't remind me. I grew up during the 80's when winters did not exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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