eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Long duration of mostly light snow? There's clearly a separation between the lead s/w and then the much stronger pv digging and swinging in behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 120 hrs a 991 mb heading out to sea. This is only a minor hit for South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Maybe the main course is still to come? Incoming at 132 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 hr 138 has a sub 988 over lake erie...lgt precip coming into phl lgt to mod in western pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Well now we have two features to watch. Very interesting. Tom says the clipper dives down later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Well now we have two features to watch. Very interesting. Tom says the clipper dives down later. Minor drawback is that moisture and baroclinic zone are displaced well offshore. But the pv is very potent. Could be some convective type snow showers with steep lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Well now we have two features to watch. Very interesting. Tom says the clipper dives down later. yup hr 141-144 lgt to mod snow for all of pa into nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 nice snowstorm for sne...they get hit good by hr 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 the low basically stalls from hr 150-162 then backs south alittle...sne gets creamed....nyc does well to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 the low basically stalls from hr 150-162 then backs south alittle...sne gets creamed....nyc does well to We get .25 to .5 in eastern PA from hr. 108-144 - how much after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 We get .25 to .5 in eastern PA from hr. 108-144 - how much after that? another .25 afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Quite interesting, don't recall a time when there were two significant snow events within 48 hours. Doesn't this look like the GGEM, in a sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 At 162 hrs there is moderate snow in NYC and all of Northern NJ, all the way back south and west to Philly, with a 979mb low sitting East of Long Island and South of the Benchmark. The map below is deceiving as far as the center of the low pressure, it is as I described, not so diffuse as this map shows. Well, this is surely one entertaining run of the GFS this evening. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 If the pv dives into Pa I think we have a shot - at least north of mason-dixon. If it moves into NY state we're probably left with one or two periods of light snow - a glancing blow. Great threat into SNE and especially NNE. A mid-level low this deep could produce a short period of heavy snow that swings through out ahead of it no matter where it tracks. But clearly we need the mid level low centers to traverse just to our south to get an prolonged intense precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Quite interesting, don't recall a time when there were two significant snow events within 48 hours. Doesn't this look like the GGEM, in a sense? yea it looks like the gem, except the gem doesn't form the miller b, it just scoots the low ots i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Very odd setup compared to the other globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Combined NYC actually gets about 8 inches out this and Philly 6 inches. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 As modeled that's 48 hours of intermittent light-moderate snow with a few heavier bursts for much of EPA, NNJ, and the tri-state. That would be excellent! But I am suspicious of the lead wave and the path of the PV. And talk about a cold pool. Can heights really get that low around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS snows from hour 108-168 in NYC area. .75"-1" total. Wacky GFS run. 3 days straight of light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 It'll be interesting to see if the EURO sees the southern stream tonight or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am suspicious of the whole thing. I just wonder if by any chance these merge into one monster storm. This could get very entertaining. As modeled that's 48 hours of intermittent light-moderate snow with a few heavier bursts for much of EPA, NNJ, and the tri-state. That would be excellent! But I am suspicious of the lead wave and the path of the PV. And talk about a cold pool. Can heights really get that low around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Man, and a Miller A JUST misses to our south on Tuesday of the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 hmmmm what if the monster northern stream and the "new" southern stream energy merge? a very entertaining run, but these events are only 5-6 days out now so its not fantasy land really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 granted its not going to verify, but its pure entertainment on the gfs the cold air it brings down from canada into the US...sub 474 thickness just above the us border, ouch...then after a snowstorm it places the pv over new england sub 504 thickness phl north..sub 486 in northern maine...850 temps -20 to -24 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 fantastic stormy run of the GFS. Truncation killed a nice storm brewing at 180 with that energy in the SW that finally starts to move out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Good lord, how much cold air can Canada give us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 hmmmm what if the monster northern stream and the "new" southern stream energy merge? a very entertaining run, but these events are only 5-6 days out now so its not fantasy land really Not out of the question when you consider how inconsistent the modeling is with ejecting a piece of the energy stuck in the southwest I'd prefer to take my chances with the vortex diving further south. But with so many high-energy pieces, these runs are very entertaining. I think I'd like to be in southern NH for this one, but a wide swath of real estate has a good shot at accumulations with this - or these - system(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 This January is beginning to look absolutely frigid on all guidance... I'd say chances that anomalies come in even more negative than December are rising. Both the EURO and GFS have a period of very below normal temperatures beginning in a few days, with severe cold in a week or so. Especially if NYC has snowcover, the month could end up historically cold--if current guidance is any indicator. Even without snowcover, temps should average around -10 or lower for several days in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 fantastic stormy run of the GFS. Truncation killed a nice storm brewing at 180 with that energy in the SW that finally starts to move out. I actually think Ji that will be the one to really watch. The one later this week looks kind of odd and strange to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 look how much faster the s/w ejects out on the 0z GFS vs. the 18z around hr90. Wasn't the Euro doing that one run and showing a major hit? I doubt it ejects that fast, but eve if it doesn't it looks like we still end up with a nice moderate event that is norther-stream dominant. I'd say we can expect a least a couple inches as far south an the MD line Friday, because even if the s/w stays put and the Miller B doesn't develop or develops too far east, we still see a juiced-up Clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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