am19psu Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 from what tony said, walt drag looks at these maps. This is the naefs for the late next week potential...looks like .2 qpf from phl on north Here are some spag charts for the NAEFS (which I use more). http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/fcsts/ensframe.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 didn't see this posted but here is the 12z gem ens mean. The mean looks to be more robust on the miller b formation that the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Here are some spag charts for the NAEFS (which I use more). http://www.emc.ncep....s/ensframe.html I like that site, when does it update? Cause i only see the 0z run for today so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Tom, Again, could you provide links for the ensemble means for the GFS and this for the Canadian, or the main site, and the other post above for the NAEFS or whatever that was? Thanks. didn't see this posted but here is the 12z gem ens mean. The mean looks to be more robust on the miller b formation that the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I strongly disagree with you. Aside from Feb. 10th last year I can't remember the last time we had a good Miller B.....they always end up farther north than progged. Do not count on much south of NYC here. There is a huge difference in Miller Bs from about a Belmar-Trenton line on northward...south of there to about ACY its very iffy...often they see something but there are many cases where they can be badly shafted while NYC/LI do quite well...1/27/04 is a good example of this when Teterboro-Newark probably saw 10 inches but Trenton may have had 2 or 3....at the same time N-NJ, NYC, and LI have very few Miller Bs where they do not see significant snows from my experience, hence why I think the GFS 12Z depiction giving this area more snow may be correct...there are not many Miller Bs which have developed far enough north to have given SNE snow but not NYC....they usually are CNJ storms on northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Living in Warren County, NJ in NW NJ my whole life, I can definitely say that I agree with your statement. There is a huge difference in Miller Bs from about a Belmar-Trenton line on northward...south of there to about ACY its very iffy...often they see something but there are many cases where they can be badly shafted while NYC/LI do quite well...1/27/04 is a good example of this when Teterboro-Newark probably saw 10 inches but Trenton may have had 2 or 3....at the same time N-NJ, NYC, and LI have very few Miller Bs where they do not see significant snows from my experience, hence why I think the GFS 12Z depiction giving this area more snow may be correct...there are not many Miller Bs which have developed far enough north to have given SNE snow but not NYC....they usually are CNJ storms on northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I totally agree. Unless the low forms off the VA Capes then PHL is normally screwed....maybe some snow from the clipper but missing out on any coastal development. RARELY do you see the low forming off of VA but rather off of DE and usually even NJ.....that 50-100 miles makes a huge difference. That's why when I hear Miller B I just tune right out and look forward to the next chance. There is a huge difference in Miller Bs from about a Belmar-Trenton line on northward...south of there to about ACY its very iffy...often they see something but there are many cases where they can be badly shafted while NYC/LI do quite well...1/27/04 is a good example of this when Teterboro-Newark probably saw 10 inches but Trenton may have had 2 or 3....at the same time N-NJ, NYC, and LI have very few Miller Bs where they do not see significant snows from my experience, hence why I think the GFS 12Z depiction giving this area more snow may be correct...there are not many Miller Bs which have developed far enough north to have given SNE snow but not NYC....they usually are CNJ storms on northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Tom, Again, could you provide links for the ensemble means for the GFS and this for the Canadian, or the main site, and the other post above for the NAEFS or whatever that was? Thanks. the ggem ens http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html naefs http://www.meteo.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 There is a huge difference in Miller Bs from about a Belmar-Trenton line on northward...south of there to about ACY its very iffy...often they see something but there are many cases where they can be badly shafted while NYC/LI do quite well...1/27/04 is a good example of this when Teterboro-Newark probably saw 10 inches but Trenton may have had 2 or 3....at the same time N-NJ, NYC, and LI have very few Miller Bs where they do not see significant snows from my experience, hence why I think the GFS 12Z depiction giving this area more snow may be correct...there are not many Miller Bs which have developed far enough north to have given SNE snow but not NYC....they usually are CNJ storms on northward. do you know if there is any site that breaks down past miller b's and miller a storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 do you know if there is any site that breaks down past miller b's and miller a storms? http://nws.met.psu.edu/severe/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 http://nws.met.psu.edu/severe/ wow. gr8 site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The KU book is a nice source. According to their breakdown north of the MD line does very well with Miller B's. I will give you the 13 Miller B storms quoted in the book and the resulting snowfall here in the NW Philly burbs. In most cases Philly will do even better than we will out here in the burbs. In their study of storms from 1960 thru 2000 they identified the following 13 Miller B storms. In 10 of the 13 cases significant snow fell in the NorthWest Suburbs of Philadelphia with Miller B events. Here they are and the Chester County Snowfall. 3/18-20/1956 - 10.0" 3/2-5/1960 - 8.5" 12/10-13/1960 - 9.0" 2/2-5/1961 - 13.1" 1/11-14/1964 - 9.0" 2/8-10/1969 - 2.1" 2/5-7/1978 - 14.3" 4/8-7/1982 - 3.4" 2/18-20/1979 - 15.2" 2/8-11/1994 - 8.6" 2/3-4/1995 - 10.5" 3/31-4/1/1997 - 13.7" 12/30-31/2000 - 1.5" do you know if there is any site that breaks down past miller b's and miller a storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Thanks again Tom. I really appreciate it. the ggem ens http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html naefs http://www.meteo.gc....s/cartes_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Call me country bumpkin, but what is a "TT(s)"? Total Total Index forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 does anyone have a link where i can find past watches,warnings,advisories ? Any area in particular? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 That's why I can't trust these charts. I mean, I know they're not made up. But the UKMET has been downright awful lately (at least for this area), yet it's supposed to be one of the better models? Yeah, but its a day 5 graph and like you said its a global stat. I would agree that the Ukmet has been more the caboose than the locomotive throughout December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 There is a huge difference in Miller Bs from about a Belmar-Trenton line on northward...south of there to about ACY its very iffy...often they see something but there are many cases where they can be badly shafted while NYC/LI do quite well...1/27/04 is a good example of this when Teterboro-Newark probably saw 10 inches but Trenton may have had 2 or 3....at the same time N-NJ, NYC, and LI have very few Miller Bs where they do not see significant snows from my experience, hence why I think the GFS 12Z depiction giving this area more snow may be correct...there are not many Miller Bs which have developed far enough north to have given SNE snow but not NYC....they usually are CNJ storms on northward. Living in Monmouth County my whole life, I can confirm your post is spot on. From what I recall, we usually do pretty well here, significantly better than PHL, ACY, or even TTN with regards to Miller B's. The cut-off in big snows is usually somewhere within the TTN-PHL-ACY triangle. Usually when we miss out, so does NYC and at least western LI. Eastern LI is more similar to SNE w/ their chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Thanks - something of a severe weather potential index. Yup, 60 in the summer would be gosh darn severe, in the winter that's pretty snow squally by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Living in Monmouth County my whole life, I can confirm your post is spot on. From what I recall, we usually do pretty well here, significantly better than PHL, ACY, or even TTN with regards to Miller B's. The cut-off in big snows is usually somewhere within the TTN-PHL-ACY triangle. Usually when we miss out, so does NYC and at least western LI. Eastern LI is more similar to SNE w/ their chances. I can't offhand think of any Miller Bs that gave significant snow to SNE and Boston and not to some parts of NYC/NJ...I know they have happened for sure but they are very infrequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 00z GFS start yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 00z GFS start yet? Yep. But not out far enough for our event yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 oooo 0z gfs is very interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 A ton more juice in the southern stream this time at 102 hrs. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Very strong southern piece of energy on this run. This was non-existent on previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 A ton more juice in the southern stream this time at 102 hrs. Wow. kind of looks like the 12z ggem, but the coastal is closer...hanging back an inverted troff from phl to jerz coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Surface low taking shape in the Carolinas at 108 hrs. Very light snow up to Philly. Tons of heavy precip in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 114 hrs has a 996mb low near Hatteras. .1 precip line to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 im out to hr 126, the snow before this is just from the southern feature....the clipper is over northern lake mich at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 This is all southern stream and a day earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 hr 132 is dropping that clipper like the 12z gfs run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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