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Potential winter threats


tombo82685

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Tom,

Again, could you provide links for the ensemble means for the GFS and this for the Canadian, or the main site, and the other post above for the NAEFS or whatever that was? Thanks.

didn't see this posted but here is the 12z gem ens mean. The mean looks to be more robust on the miller b formation that the operational.

12zggemensemblep12156.gif

12zggemensemblep12168.gif

12zggemensemblep72180.gif

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I strongly disagree with you. Aside from Feb. 10th last year I can't remember the last time we had a good Miller B.....they always end up farther north than progged. Do not count on much south of NYC here.

There is a huge difference in Miller Bs from about a Belmar-Trenton line on northward...south of there to about ACY its very iffy...often they see something but there are many cases where they can be badly shafted while NYC/LI do quite well...1/27/04 is a good example of this when Teterboro-Newark probably saw 10 inches but Trenton may have had 2 or 3....at the same time N-NJ, NYC, and LI have very few Miller Bs where they do not see significant snows from my experience, hence why I think the GFS 12Z depiction giving this area more snow may be correct...there are not many Miller Bs which have developed far enough north to have given SNE snow but not NYC....they usually are CNJ storms on northward.

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Living in Warren County, NJ in NW NJ my whole life, I can definitely say that I agree with your statement.

There is a huge difference in Miller Bs from about a Belmar-Trenton line on northward...south of there to about ACY its very iffy...often they see something but there are many cases where they can be badly shafted while NYC/LI do quite well...1/27/04 is a good example of this when Teterboro-Newark probably saw 10 inches but Trenton may have had 2 or 3....at the same time N-NJ, NYC, and LI have very few Miller Bs where they do not see significant snows from my experience, hence why I think the GFS 12Z depiction giving this area more snow may be correct...there are not many Miller Bs which have developed far enough north to have given SNE snow but not NYC....they usually are CNJ storms on northward.

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I totally agree. Unless the low forms off the VA Capes then PHL is normally screwed....maybe some snow from the clipper but missing out on any coastal development. RARELY do you see the low forming off of VA but rather off of DE and usually even NJ.....that 50-100 miles makes a huge difference. That's why when I hear Miller B I just tune right out and look forward to the next chance.

There is a huge difference in Miller Bs from about a Belmar-Trenton line on northward...south of there to about ACY its very iffy...often they see something but there are many cases where they can be badly shafted while NYC/LI do quite well...1/27/04 is a good example of this when Teterboro-Newark probably saw 10 inches but Trenton may have had 2 or 3....at the same time N-NJ, NYC, and LI have very few Miller Bs where they do not see significant snows from my experience, hence why I think the GFS 12Z depiction giving this area more snow may be correct...there are not many Miller Bs which have developed far enough north to have given SNE snow but not NYC....they usually are CNJ storms on northward.

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There is a huge difference in Miller Bs from about a Belmar-Trenton line on northward...south of there to about ACY its very iffy...often they see something but there are many cases where they can be badly shafted while NYC/LI do quite well...1/27/04 is a good example of this when Teterboro-Newark probably saw 10 inches but Trenton may have had 2 or 3....at the same time N-NJ, NYC, and LI have very few Miller Bs where they do not see significant snows from my experience, hence why I think the GFS 12Z depiction giving this area more snow may be correct...there are not many Miller Bs which have developed far enough north to have given SNE snow but not NYC....they usually are CNJ storms on northward.

do you know if there is any site that breaks down past miller b's and miller a storms?

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The KU book is a nice source. According to their breakdown north of the MD line does very well with Miller B's. I will give you the 13 Miller B storms quoted in the book and the resulting snowfall here in the NW Philly burbs. In most cases Philly will do even better than we will out here in the burbs. In their study of storms from 1960 thru 2000 they identified the following 13 Miller B storms. In 10 of the 13 cases significant snow fell in the NorthWest Suburbs of Philadelphia with Miller B events. Here they are and the Chester County Snowfall.

3/18-20/1956 - 10.0"

3/2-5/1960 - 8.5"

12/10-13/1960 - 9.0"

2/2-5/1961 - 13.1"

1/11-14/1964 - 9.0"

2/8-10/1969 - 2.1"

2/5-7/1978 - 14.3"

4/8-7/1982 - 3.4"

2/18-20/1979 - 15.2"

2/8-11/1994 - 8.6"

2/3-4/1995 - 10.5"

3/31-4/1/1997 - 13.7"

12/30-31/2000 - 1.5"

do you know if there is any site that breaks down past miller b's and miller a storms?

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That's why I can't trust these charts. I mean, I know they're not made up. But the UKMET has been downright awful lately (at least for this area), yet it's supposed to be one of the better models?

Yeah, but its a day 5 graph and like you said its a global stat. I would agree that the Ukmet has been more the caboose than the locomotive throughout December.

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There is a huge difference in Miller Bs from about a Belmar-Trenton line on northward...south of there to about ACY its very iffy...often they see something but there are many cases where they can be badly shafted while NYC/LI do quite well...1/27/04 is a good example of this when Teterboro-Newark probably saw 10 inches but Trenton may have had 2 or 3....at the same time N-NJ, NYC, and LI have very few Miller Bs where they do not see significant snows from my experience, hence why I think the GFS 12Z depiction giving this area more snow may be correct...there are not many Miller Bs which have developed far enough north to have given SNE snow but not NYC....they usually are CNJ storms on northward.

Living in Monmouth County my whole life, I can confirm your post is spot on. From what I recall, we usually do pretty well here, significantly better than PHL, ACY, or even TTN with regards to Miller B's. The cut-off in big snows is usually somewhere within the TTN-PHL-ACY triangle. Usually when we miss out, so does NYC and at least western LI. Eastern LI is more similar to SNE w/ their chances.

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Living in Monmouth County my whole life, I can confirm your post is spot on. From what I recall, we usually do pretty well here, significantly better than PHL, ACY, or even TTN with regards to Miller B's. The cut-off in big snows is usually somewhere within the TTN-PHL-ACY triangle. Usually when we miss out, so does NYC and at least western LI. Eastern LI is more similar to SNE w/ their chances.

I can't offhand think of any Miller Bs that gave significant snow to SNE and Boston and not to some parts of NYC/NJ...I know they have happened for sure but they are very infrequent.

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