Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Very interesting, thank you! 18z ens mean backs the 12z op of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 From Typhoon Tip in the main forum, he is talking about the latest EC run, but the GFS run is similar, "The 12z deterministic ECMWF run shows at 96 hours that the 582DM height contour is now S of the southern peninsula of FL. That implies reducing resistance. There is also a little more intermediate/southern stream dynamics to offer a better phase out in time. Regardless, this run seems to just miss doing so by a razor thin margin for error... We see a weak coastal reflection and an exotically stretched Miller B presentation in the isobaric layout by 120 hours; the natural question still unanswered points to whether that phase doesn't take place 6 or so hours faster - should that come to pass, look out!" I really like Tip and always enjoy reading his posts/thoughts. But it's difficult to tell exactly how great a forecaster he is. He tends to see huge potential in everything. And he's also prone to emotional ups and downs that influence his outlook (aren't we all). It usually boils down to... we might get something huge but probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The mean at 138 hrs has the low situated off the NJ Coast and at 144 hrs it is sitting still and throwing moderate precip all the way back to Harrisburg and down past Philly. Then moves NE but is still precipitating moderately in NYC at 150 hrs before it finally moves NE. This is VERY much in line with 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I really like Tip and always enjoy reading his posts/thoughts. But it's difficult to tell exactly how great a forecaster he is. He tends to see huge potential in everything. And he's also prone to emotional ups and downs that influence his outlook (aren't we all). It usually boils down to... we might get something huge but probably not. I used to think that way - that it would be hard to get something big in this Nina. I try be optimistic, but you also have to be cautious. After the last storm, I think maybe the pattern will produce again. May not be huge, but a decent event. The GFS ens. usually aren't more bullish than the OP - that is good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 18z ens mean backs the 12z op of the gfs The mean charts show coastal redevelopment further south than either 06z or 12z. But the primarily low is still in the Lakes/western NY. Should be some robust individual members. But we'll have to wait a few days to sort this thing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 The mean charts show coastal redevelopment further south than either 06z or 12z. But the primarily low is still in the Lakes/western NY. Should be some robust individual members. But we'll have to wait a few days to sort this thing out. lol there are a lot of interesting solutions in the indiv ens means http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I used to think that way - that it would be hard to get something big in this Nina. I try be optimistic, but you also have to be cautious. After the last storm, I think maybe the pattern will produce again. May not be huge, but a decent event. The GFS ens. usually aren't more bullish than the OP - that is good to see. A climate index doesn't make our weather. So I don't think about it day to day. Sure when you look back at a season or composites of seasons you can make statistical inferences, but it has almost no bearing on mid-range forecasts. As to the GEFS, I've seen them on both sides of the OP many times. Bullish is relative to your location as well. The atmospheric interactions are so complex that it's hard to predict where the OP will lie within the ensemble spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Looking at a loop of the spaghetti charts, and after analyzing the previous UK and Canadian runs as well. There are strong signs that redevelopment will take place just off the DelMarva, then move North. The only question is, does it cut off near the coast of NJ or near New England? I guess that will be determined in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 A climate index doesn't make our weather. So I don't think about it day to day. Sure when you look back at a season or composites of seasons you can make statistical inferences, but it has almost no bearing on mid-range forecasts. As to the GEFS, I've seen them on both sides of the OP many times. Bullish is relative to your location as well. The atmospheric interactions are so complex that it's hard to predict where the OP will lie within the ensemble spread. This is a solid post. People should pay attention to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 here is the indiv ens mean 72 hr accum precip ending hr 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 lol there are a lot of interesting solutions in the indiv ens means http://www.meteo.psu...ef.html#picture Two or three really nice ones in there! But hardly any of the individual members resemble the ensemble mean. Goes to show that you can't treat the mean like a discrete operational solution (especially in the med range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Two or three really nice ones in there! But hardly any of the individual members resemble the ensemble mean. Goes to show that you can't treat the mean like a discrete operational solution (especially in the med range). o yea trust me i know. I have said that many of times that just one ens member can throw the mean big time... What im saying even if you take the worse computer model right now for us which is the euro, it still drops over .1qpf for nyc, so atleast there deff is a higher than normal potential as of right now that parts of the region see a lgt snow event or maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 o yea trust me i know. I have said that many of times that just one ens member can throw the mean big time... What im saying even if you take the worse computer model right now for us which is the euro, it still drops over .1qpf for nyc, so atleast there deff is a higher than normal potential as of right now that parts of the region see a lgt snow event or maybe more. I'm on board with this. And I didn't mean to suggest that you didn't agree about the viability of the ensemble mean. I was just using your post to make a general - and probably obvious - point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 This goes along with what I said after viewing the spaghetti plots. About half of these members cut this off further north with a good hit for New England, and the other half have it cutting off further south with a good hit for NYC and the Northern Middle Atlantic. lol there are a lot of interesting solutions in the indiv ens means http://www.meteo.psu...ef.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Tom, I would love a link for this material. here is the indiv ens mean 72 hr accum precip ending hr 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Tom, I would love a link for this material. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Thank you. Do you also have a link for model accuracy statistics? In other words, which model is ranked first, second, third and so on. I just deleted my link. http://www.meteo.psu.../ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 LOL @ people already arguing over precip. Come on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Thank you. Do you also have a link for model accuracy statistics? In other words, which model is ranked first, second, third and so on. I just deleted my link. Here is the one I use. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Thank you! Here is the one I use. http://www.emc.ncep....gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 As I thought! GFS moved into 2nd place!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Here is the one I use. http://www.emc.ncep....gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 As I thought! GFS moved into 2nd place!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Statistical tie with UKM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 does anyone have a link where i can find past watches,warnings,advisories ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS is .001 higher, lol. Statistical tie with UKM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Did you guys see the 12z run of the UKMET. VERY close to a really good solution for NYC. Kind of a compromise between the GFS and the Euro. I attached the 144 hrs from the 0z run to show how it would likely look at 132 hrs, then the 144 hrs. from the 12z run. This gives you a good idea of the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Statistical tie with UKM. That's why I can't trust these charts. I mean, I know they're not made up. But the UKMET has been downright awful lately (at least for this area), yet it's supposed to be one of the better models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Law of averages I guess. But, yes it has not been very good when it counts lately. That's why I can't trust these charts. I mean, I know they're not made up. But the UKMET has been downright awful lately (at least for this area), yet it's supposed to be one of the better models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 That's why I can't trust these charts. I mean, I know they're not made up. But the UKMET has been downright awful lately (at least for this area), yet it's supposed to be one of the better models? On one hand, I see your point because I subjectively use the GFS more than the UKM. But numbers don't lie, across the NH, they have the same error for the Northern Hemisphere at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 from what tony said, walt drag looks at these maps. This is the naefs for the late next week potential...looks like .2 qpf from phl on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I strongly disagree with you. Aside from Feb. 10th last year I can't remember the last time we had a good Miller B.....they always end up farther north than progged. Do not count on much south of NYC here. Strongly agree. Its usually the dc crew who gets screwed. We make out well with these most times, don't really know why everyone is saying nyc south gets screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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