Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The JMA and GFS were first to catch the blizzard on Christmas Eve also, interesting. I think the NOGAPS is a big warning sign also. I really think the GFS does much better with Northern Stream dominated events. Lets see if 18z hangs onto it? heres the 12z jma's forecast, which looks more in line with the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Jan 11-12 is probably too early to the pattern to reload - esp with the -PNA pattern expected to set up across the West during that time. I'd look a little further out for a sig snow event in our area. agreed, but i think a lot of people wouldnt mind a 2-4 3-6 type of ordeal which i can see happening if that low track on the gfs happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 agreed, but i think a lot of people wouldnt mind a 2-4 3-6 type of ordeal which i can see happening if that low track on the gfs happens. Yeah, as long as that's where expectations are, that's reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah, as long as that's where expectations are, that's reasonable. i would take that in a minute. 2-4 3-6 of powder followed by the arctic air behind it with sub 510 thickness over fresh snow cover....would lead to probably the coldest air of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 i would take that in a minute. 2-4 3-6 of powder followed by the arctic air behind it with sub 510 thickness over fresh snow cover....would lead to probably the coldest air of the season The way this winter is going anything outside of 72hrs remains eye candy. FWIW from a modeling perspective the euro initialized better than the gfs with the closed low in Minnesota that becomes the driver. Yeah this can work both ways as I read there were initialization errors with the 12z gfs on the 24th and it still was the first to bring it to the house. Speaking of bringing it to the house, today's 12z gfs develops a bombing rate when the low passes across Lake Erie which at this time of year seems suspect. Today its the Canadian's turn to bring the energy from the sw east the fastest thus its southern el zippo qpf for the NYC area . So those conflicted runs are going to result in low NAEFS pops again. FWIW the GEFS mean (A couple of very robust members in there) gives the local PHL area advisory criteria. The FIM stopped working this weekend, I know you miss it. Later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 ECM ensemble means at 144 and 168 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The way this winter is going anything outside of 72hrs remains eye candy. FWIW from a modeling perspective the euro initialized better than the gfs with the closed low in Minnesota that becomes the driver. Yeah this can work both ways as I read there were initialization errors with the 12z gfs on the 24th and it still was the first to bring it to the house. Speaking of bringing it to the house, today's 12z gfs develops a bombing rate when the low passes across Lake Erie which at this time of year seems suspect. Today its the Canadian's turn to bring the energy from the sw east the fastest thus its southern el zippo qpf for the NYC area . So those conflicted runs are going to result in low NAEFS pops again. FWIW the GEFS mean (A couple of very robust members in there) gives the local PHL area advisory criteria. The FIM stopped working this weekend, I know you miss it. Later... Funny you mention this about the Canadian. Because some of the sw energy ejects east as you mention, the mid-level flow in our region by day 4 has some southerly component as opposed to the northerly component on most other guidance. It also swings the pv much further SW and sets up what looks to me like a much more threatening scenario for NYC south than the Euro or GFS op runs. The Canadian QPF is paltry, but I think this is somewhat flukish. I like the synoptics. Re-run an almost identical setup and the surface features could shake out more favorably IMO. If that SLP near WV at day 5 doesn't fill, redevelop offshore, and slip east quite so fast, you might have a fairly long duration event for parts of the mid-atlantic and a deepening, closely tucked SLP to impact the tri-state and SNE. I think the Euro probably has the right idea, with the GFS kind of an unlikely compromise. But I believe the pv has to dig further southwest like the Canadian before it swings east for anyone outside of NE to have a good short at a moderate or greater event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 The way this winter is going anything outside of 72hrs remains eye candy. FWIW from a modeling perspective the euro initialized better than the gfs with the closed low in Minnesota that becomes the driver. Yeah this can work both ways as I read there were initialization errors with the 12z gfs on the 24th and it still was the first to bring it to the house. Speaking of bringing it to the house, today's 12z gfs develops a bombing rate when the low passes across Lake Erie which at this time of year seems suspect. Today its the Canadian's turn to bring the energy from the sw east the fastest thus its southern el zippo qpf for the NYC area . So those conflicted runs are going to result in low NAEFS pops again. FWIW the GEFS mean (A couple of very robust members in there) gives the local PHL area advisory criteria. The FIM stopped working this weekend, I know you miss it. Later... yea i have been looking at the fim for this event. Doesn't really show much. Then again it never had anything for the dec 26-27th event until close in. Maybe a golf round this week to improve our chances at adv criteria snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I can't recall any major snowstorms that featured 500mb heights near or below 500dm in our vicinity as progged by all the global models for late next week. I'm sure there have been many instances, particularly with clipper type storms, but maybe not too many KUs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 I can't recall any major snowstorms that featured 500mb heights near or below 500dm in our vicinity as progged by all the global models for late next week. I'm sure there have been many instances, particularly with clipper type storms, but maybe not too many KUs. every storm isnt going to be a block buster....a 2-4 3-6 inch storm is good to and i can see that happening if we can get that clipper to dive further south like the ggem,gfs,jma have. Seems like in the past winter and this one so far, its either blockbuster or no storm, what happened to the little nickle and dime events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 every storm isnt going to be a block buster....a 2-4 3-6 inch storm is good to and i can see that happening if we can get that clipper to dive further south like the ggem,gfs,jma have. Seems like in the past winter and this one so far, its either blockbuster or no storm, what happened to the little nickle and dime events? Exactly - again Philly did go 16yrs without a 12"(+) event so we've certainly been spoiled since 2003. Lack of nickel & dime events and also the lack of the changeover events, seems it's either all rain, snow or sleet for that matter. I'd take a 2-4" event in a second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 every storm isnt going to be a block buster....a 2-4 3-6 inch storm is good to and i can see that happening if we can get that clipper to dive further south like the ggem,gfs,jma have. Seems like in the past winter and this one so far, its either blockbuster or no storm, what happened to the little nickle and dime events? Its been all or nothing of late although we did have those two moderate events in 2008-9. Yeah Wednesday is my guess, hope its not too windy. You might have to set the bar higher for this one, I felt pretty confident about the last one (and thankfully I was out of internet range for most of those dreadful runs before Christmas Day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Its been all or nothing of late although we did have those two moderate events in 2008-9. Yeah Wednesday is my guess, hope its not too windy. You might have to set the bar higher for this one, I felt pretty confident about the last one (and thankfully I was out of internet range for most of those dreadful runs before Christmas Day). lol, lets get a few more model runs in to see what we are dealing with. Ill set the bar on monday...you got a list of courses or the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 18z gfs is pretty disorganized at the surface for the area. Develops a good coastal but up by boston area...li gets some decent precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 GFS is laughably different than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 GFS is laughably different than 12z. and you will prob most likely see another scenario tonight to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Dgex likes big storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 GFS is laughably different than 12z. Doesn't look that different to me. The pv is a little further northeast along its entire path this run. Otherwise the timing and basic positioning of features is similar. Subtle changes in the upper levels will have major implications on surface features along the east coast. This is not the sort of setup that will get locked in early. But then again few are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Still drops .25" for most of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 lol, lets get a few more model runs in to see what we are dealing with. Ill set the bar on monday...you got a list of courses or the same? Ok, same ones. The 18z gfs looks closer to a model consensus fwiw at this eye candy time frame. I guess it doesn't like Lake Ontario, it didn't start bombing rate the low when it crossed it. Couple of norlun trofs for Long Is and New England. TT(s) forecast to reach 60C over eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 On the 18z that low just sits there for days. Looks like it's going to squash any potential shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I just took a closer look at the last two GFS runs and the 18z is actually more similar to the 12z than I would have expected. I thought the 12z was pretty extreme - and therefore expected it to really back off - but this run is still pretty close around here. The pv needs to dig further SW to get a decent hit outside of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Ok, same ones. The 18z gfs looks closer to a model consensus fwiw at this eye candy time frame. I guess it doesn't like Lake Ontario, it didn't start bombing rate the low when it crossed it. Couple of norlun trofs for Long Is and New England. TT(s) forecast to reach 60C over eastern Long Island. Yeah it certainly looks closer to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Keep in mind that the 12 Z ECM looked alot closer to the NOGAPS..which we all know how good that model is ..So if the 18 Z looks closer to the ECM..i think its a pretty safe bet we see another solution at 00z tonight on the GFS... Matter of fact following the whole run out it is completely different from 12 Z all the way around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Actually, it really is not that different at all. It just develops the coastal a little later. It would not take much of a change at all to get the same or better result than the 12z run. Just has to develop the coastal a touch earlier. Reference what Typhoon Tip said in the other thread. Total precip is below. GFS is laughably different than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah, Philly going from .70" of precip to .10" of precip isn't very different at all. You're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 If you are looking at the surface, then you are correct, but if you look at the upper air features and the little bit of difference that it would take to produce the same or even possibly better surface results, then there is really very little difference. Again, reference what the very good meteorologist in the main forum stated about how little difference it would take to produce massively different results at the surface. All good meteorologists look at the upper air features at this time frame, not really the surface so much. From Typhoon Tip in the main forum, he is talking about the latest EC run, but the GFS run is similar, "The 12z deterministic ECMWF run shows at 96 hours that the 582DM height contour is now S of the southern peninsula of FL. That implies reducing resistance. There is also a little more intermediate/southern stream dynamics to offer a better phase out in time. Regardless, this run seems to just miss doing so by a razor thin margin for error... We see a weak coastal reflection and an exotically stretched Miller B presentation in the isobaric layout by 120 hours; the natural question still unanswered points to whether that phase doesn't take place 6 or so hours faster - should that come to pass, look out!" Yeah, Philly going from .70" of precip to .10" of precip isn't very different at all. You're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah it certainly looks closer to the Euro. Yeah like you have posted New England is currently positioned the best and we have some work ahead of us. Better than no chance at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Current Wxsim has snow beginning overnight into Friday morning with 4 to 5" of snow accumulating by Friday evening in the NW suburbs of Philly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 18z ens mean backs the 12z op of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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