Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 No. where is the h5 low? the surface features dont really matter...s it digging it like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 hr 150 just has a broad area of sub 988 pressure, looks to be centered in the gulf of maine...mod precip in maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 where is the h5 low? the surface features dont really matter...s it digging it like the GFS? the h5 low goes right across southern ny state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro holds on to/strengthens the GL Low keeping it the primary too long to do anyone a whole lot of good it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Looks strung out compared to the GFS at hr 150. Prob nothing more than a few flurries for Philly *on this run* through 150 A general .10 to .25" from dc to boston.. The lesser amounts as you towards Dc to Philly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 one thing is for sure, it gets really cold...sub 510 thickness over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 maine gets raped on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 168 some precip down towards texas the s/w corner of tx.. Go ahead tombo, i just saw your doing the PBP.. haha. Happy New years everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 sweet cold and dry http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h168&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 168 some precip down towards texas the s/w corner of tx.. Go ahead tombo, i just saw your doing the PBP.. haha. Happy New years everyone! nothing really going on right now lol...976 low over eastern maine...and some precip starting to break out in tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yes, I guess the Euro has the same basic idea, just MUCH further north for Maine, rather than for NYC. My only concern is that I have seen the GFS sometimes do better with northern stream systems. maine gets raped on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 some lgt flurries and snow showers over the region at hr 180 from the pig sitting over eastern maine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yes, I guess the Euro has the same basic idea, just MUCH further north for Maine, rather than for NYC. My only concern is that I have seen the GFS sometimes do better with northern stream systems. that may be true. I thought i heard the ggem was really good also with northern stream storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 looks like the storm in tx is just going to get crushed. The vortex is sitting in eastern maine, and the confluence is ridiculous around it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro sounds boring for most of the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It is amazing how that storm just sits there and absolutely kills Maine. If we can only get this to do as the GFS shows instead and come further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro sounds boring for most of the EC. it is, outside of maybe sne, they get .25-.5....maine gets 1-2.5 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Unless you are in Maine. They get killed. Euro sounds boring for most of the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 From John (Typhoon Tip) on main forum The 12z deterministic ECMWF run shows at 96 hours that the 582DM height contour is now S of the southern peninsula of FL. That implies reducing resistance. There is also a little more intermediate/southern stream dynamics to offer a better phase out in time. Regardless, this run seems to just miss doing so by a razor thin margin for error... We see a weak coastal reflection and an exotically stretched Miller B presentation in the isobaric layout by 120 hours; the natural question still unanswered points to whether that phase doesn't take place 6 or so hours faster - should that come to pass, look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 As I said before too, I believe the GFS does better with the northern stream systems. I think it was first to latch on the blizzard last week because it was northern stream dominated. From John (Typhoon Tip) on main forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 DT just updated says the storm late this week is def just a new england event, not a mid atlantic event, maybe some lite snow but def not a big event for mid atlantic, but says the storm around jan 11 and 12th could be a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 the rest of the euro is just cold and dry...hr 240 does have weak storm in the middle of the country spreading some lgt precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 here is the no gaps take on the storm...looks like the euro, but develops the coastal going quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 DT just updated says the storm late this week is def just a new england event, not a mid atlantic event, maybe some lite snow but def not a big event for mid atlantic, but says the storm around jan 11 and 12th could be a significant event. To my knowledge there is not a model that is showing a storm around the 11th and 12th at this point and time..whether that be the GFS or the ECM ..And it is also way to early to say whom this upcoming event for the 7th is going to favor. DT generally goes by the ECM so his saying what he said should be no surprise..but i would err on the side of caution considering the failure the ECM had with this last system where it had to play catchup to the GFS... I think the ECM is probably more of a fast outlier here compared to the rest of the guidance with the way it is handling the low pressure going from Montana to WIsconsin ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 heres the 12z jma's forecast, which looks more in line with the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Jan 11-12 is probably too early to the pattern to reload - esp with the -PNA pattern expected to set up across the West during that time. I'd look a little further out for a sig snow event in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 here is the no gaps take on the storm...looks like the euro, but develops the coastal going quicker IMO this is a red flag that the EURO is wrong, like we saw last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Jan 11-12 is probably too early to the pattern to reload - esp with the -PNA pattern expected to set up across the West during that time. I'd look a little further out for a sig snow event in our area. Jan 16-17? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Jan 11-12 is probably too early to the pattern to reload - esp with the -PNA pattern expected to set up across the West during that time. I'd look a little further out for a sig snow event in our area. Most likely January 15th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Jan 16-17? Most likely January 15th or so. We'll see, but that's about the earliest I could see something occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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