Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Never said all Miller B's are bad but when you have low redeveloping along the Delmarva/ S NJ coast, that's not great for DC to NYC. Not only will there be QPF issues but there could easily by BL issues. The best Miller B setups are ones that develop along or just off of the Carolinas or Virginia coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 You might want to check out one of the greatest Miller Bs of all time, such as February 1978 and January 2005, where PHL-North raked up 12+ totals..... Mixing issues will still be a problem, no matter who gets the higher snowfall totals. The cold is not in place this time. I was in 1978 and 2005 storms- so what about the snow. The king of snowfalls will always be 1996 and that is not going to happen Miller B's get mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Mixing issues with 850's of - 4 or more in NYC? I highly doubt it. I disagree with both observations, PHL, NYC and DC all get screwed and the NW suburbs, Poconos and LV are the jackpot in this setup. Mixing issues are the issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It all depends. Some Miller B's kill NYC. I agree though that it gets more tricky south of NYC. It depends on how far south this thing digs. The Canadian actually keeps the precip to the south of NYC. All I can say is these types of setups are very risky for NYC south, most Miller B's are and this one would be no exception. If the setup does evolve close to what the gfs suggests than New England will probably get hammered while we get side swept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 heres the the 180 hr of the ggem, almost looks like its trying to hang backan inverted trof or something when the storm moves out... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 This just indicates further to me that the GFS may be on to something. heres the the 180 hr of the ggem, almost looks like its trying to hang backan inverted trof or something when the storm moves out... http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah but in '05 most of PHL's snow was over before redevelopment off the coast even took place You might want to check out one of the greatest Miller Bs of all time, such as February 1978 and January 2005, where PHL-North raked up 12+ totals..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Strongly agree. Its usually the dc crew who gets screwed. We make out well with these most times, don't really know why everyone is saying nyc south gets screwed. Only year I dont recall PHL "getting screwed" with these setups was 95-96....every Miller B bombed out near the VA Capes as opposed to Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Mixing issues with 850's of - 4 or more in NYC? I highly doubt it. with an 850 low to the west of us their will certainly be mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The 850 low cuts through NJ at around Rt. 78. I stick with what I said previously. It is also a clipper type system. I don't remember too many clippers with that track bringing precip issues to us. with an 850 low to the west of us their will certainly be mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The 850 low cuts through NJ at around Rt. 78. I stick with what I said previously. It is also a clipper type system. I don't remember too many clippers with that track bringing precip issues to us. dont care what type of system it is, i wouldnt be to comfortable with an all snow event unless the 850 low is south or east of us(espc for the coast). doesnt matter anyway since we are so far out to pinpoint such details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well, at the moment it is just south of us, but granted, it is very close. Too early yet anyway. Both the UKMET and Canadian appear to take it a little further south. dont care what type of system it is, i wouldnt be to comfortable with an all snow event unless the 850 low is south or east of us(espc for the coast). doesnt matter anyway since we are so far out to pinpoint such details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Tom, You watching the Euro for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 heres the gfs indiv ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Surface low starts taking shape at 96 hrs. over NE Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Tom, You watching the Euro for us? at quick glance, thru 72 hrs the h5 maps on the 12GFS and EURO look very similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Tom, You watching the Euro for us? yup, when it gets to something interesting ill chime in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 All I can say is these types of setups are very risky for NYC south, most Miller B's are and this one would be no exception. If the setup does evolve close to what the gfs suggests than New England will probably get hammered while we get side swept. I disagree. Having lived many years in the PHL area, it is not uncommon to get 6-10 inches out this set up. Sure you don't get the 12 + totals, but I am sure anyone in the PHL will agree PHL does not typically get screwed the hardest. I Strongly agree. Its usually the dc crew who gets screwed. We make out well with these most times, don't really know why everyone is saying nyc south gets screwed. I disagree with both observations, PHL, NYC and DC all get screwed and the NW suburbs, Poconos and LV are the jackpot in this setup. Mixing issues are the issue All depends on how far south the primary low comes across and where the secondary develops. It's different every time. Mixing issues with 850's of - 4 or more in NYC? I highly doubt it. 850's are not the only level used to determine precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Surface low starts taking shape at 96 hrs. over NE Oklahoma. although very similar thru 96 hrs the Euro drives the trough a BIT further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 hr 108 has lgt precip from great lakes to ten, where some mod precip is found...also some heavier precip along the gulf coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 hr 120 the southern system pushed off the se coast looks like its starting to form a low off se va...while the northern stream storm is over lake huron, sub 992. just some lgt precip from about nyc then through i78 to north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 hr 120 the southern system pushed off the se coast looks like its starting to form a low off se va...while the northern stream storm is over lake huron, sub 992. just some lgt precip from about nyc then through i78 to north it also appears that the Euro is now abt 12hrs faster w/the h5 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 hr 120 the southern system pushed off the se coast looks like its starting to form a low off se va...while the northern stream storm is over lake huron, sub 992. just some lgt precip from about nyc then through i78 to north almost looks to keep the Great Lakes low the primary, or at least much longer than GFS; GL low is 989 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 hr 132 has a sub 988 low over huron...its trying to form another low off the coast...lgt precip for all of ny and pa except se pa and nyc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Looks a lot like the UKMET to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 hr 138 has the low over huron moving due east over ny state with some mod precip heading into sne...lgt precip for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 hr 132 has a sub 988 low over huron...its trying to form another low off the coast...lgt precip for all of ny and pa except se pa and nyc area where is the h5 low? the surface features dont really matter...s it digging it like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 One thing of concern to me here is, doesn't the GFS usually do better with northern stream systems and the EC do better with southern stream systems? This is a northern stream system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 hr 144 the low in ny state is right over boston...they are getting mod precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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