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Potential winter threats


tombo82685

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<br />This particular 384 totals map is contoured at 1" intervals. It's accurate.

Correct , in other words it shows from 0 to 1 inch QPF thru the 384 hr period. I should have reworded a little bit better but the perception that i was getting from the two previous posts was such things as a "snow hole" etc.. " lack of precipitation " etc because talk lately has been around snow shortages etc. When one normally views their area in white they perceive that as "precipitation free" which was the impression that i was getting thru the two previous posts ..which is what i should have referenced as incorrect if that was the perception because those two images that i linked to showed indeed that the area does get precipitation just not as much as surrounding areas & that is what I meant.

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Miller B here all the way.......every red tagger on here agrees that is what the ensemble mean is depicting

I would not go as far as saying it does not support the operational solution but i also would not go as far as saying it supports it 100%...

At least from these images of the means it looks like there is a low pressure around Hatteras that would move NNE from there...

I would say at the very least it gives some support to the Operational run...where the operational run becomes a real outlier is actually out in its long range with the cutter...

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Miller B here all the way.......every red tagger on here agrees that is what the ensemble mean is depicting

I do not think i said anywhere that it could not potentially be a Miller B..I simply said i would not say that the means do not exactly support the OP as they do support the op but not completely and fully...

However,,,would not rest confident on a Miller B either...as tonight could have a whole new array of solutions once again....

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Haha where's tombo when you need him. Looks like that miller b would probably screw dc-philly.

yeah pretty much...Trenton -Boston gets a decent event from that miller B...a complete 180 from 12z and this op run supports its 12z ensemble mean

no if we could get that baby to dig alittle more and gather more moisture... :pepsi:

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Maybe Tom will chime in. It doesn't really look that far off depending on earlier frames.

Trenton on northeast to boston get a decent event verbatim with high ratios too... this could easily change though if there is more digging to get the low to deepen further south

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Trenton on northeast to boston get a decent event verbatim with high ratios too... this could easily change though if there is more digging to get the low to deepen further south

I'm glad there's at least a storm threat. We need some things to happen: on the Euro, we do need more digging. On the GFS, there's a lot of gulf moisture, but the PV is too far south. Hard to be too positive or negative yet; time for this to evolve.

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Happy New Year's to all.

I don't think we should take the models too seriously this far out. Instead of going too far out for any upcoming event, I'm not going to beyond Day 5. I mean I know that with the past event, we followed it out by nearly 10 days, but the disappointment would have been huge had the storm been a complete failure. I know not every storm will be a success so following at closer ranges is probably the best method. The same goes for any arctic air masses.

The potential is once again huge but that doesn't mean will see another MECS/HECS in January.

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