Ian Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 my gut says the computers are unable to accurately forecast the block is we get screwed, its going to be because it stays to our south more often than moving to our north anyone look at Brett Anderson's interpretation of the new Euro weeklies? this will make you laugh for the same reason as the snow cover hole http://www.accuweath...del-outlook.asp probably on the block.. no reason to think it's not a continuing 'issue' going forward imo... but we came out of dec without a ton to show from it other than cold. if it's just going to be cold and dry i'll take some SE ridge, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 There is a thread in the main forum about snow chances for NY and Boston after a big December Storm. I took the years they used for their discussion and checked them against DCA's season snowfall. All but 2 seasons had above average snow for us when NY has a December snow over 8 inches. So i think we will still have a decent season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 my gut says the computers are unable to accurately forecast the block is we get screwed, its going to be because it stays to our south more often than moving to our north anyone look at Brett Anderson's interpretation of the new Euro weeklies? this will make you laugh for the same reason as the snow cover hole http://www.accuweath...del-outlook.asp Brett needs to graduate from MSPaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 18 gfs wants to send us some precip around hour 96. Looks to be too warm but maybe we could get a rain --> snow changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 There is a thread in the main forum about snow chances for NY and Boston after a big December Storm. I took the years they used for their discussion and checked them against DCA's season snowfall. All but 2 seasons had above average snow for us when NY has a December snow over 8 inches. So i think we will still have a decent season. This has been my feeling all along. I'm not a forecaster by any means or even a dedicated hobbyist but I looked at a lot of charts and maps, things you don't need a degree to read and interpret. What I saw in those charts was when the was blocking present in a moderate/strong Niña, there was still the possibility of coastal storms, only that the track shifted south and east. None of the meteorologists in the ENSO thread this summer believed that there could be decent snowfall because of the record heat in the region. Well obviously they were wrong. Richmond, VA has had above normal snowfall and well below normal temps and the storm track has shifted to the southeast. Despite my complete lack of knowledge on seasonal forecasting, I saw it coming. There is value in analogs if you look for trends rather than matches. DC should have a normal year and Richmond will be above normal. When the block relaxes and the cold comes back later next month, it'll be our turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 18 gfs wants to send us some precip around hour 96. Looks to be too warm but maybe we could get a rain --> snow changeover? Not as modeled by the GFS- we'd never get cold air in here fast enough. If the energy slows and digs down, like how the DGEX handles it but much moreso, maybe. I don't know if it's possible with the strong upper low in SC Canada. The models have struggled with northern stream systems lately, but still I'd give it .01% chance of seeing a flake. We need that low to become the 50/50 for late next week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Uh Oh....JB on board for some slop Kiss of death That Henry map shows rain for me The west is NOT where it's at this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 There is a thread in the main forum about snow chances for NY and Boston after a big December Storm. I took the years they used for their discussion and checked them against DCA's season snowfall. All but 2 seasons had above average snow for us when NY has a December snow over 8 inches. So i think we will still have a decent season. I did the same thing but what you have to factor in is that those years featured snow in December for us as well which when added to the total made for a decent season....so you have to take what we didn't get in December off of the total. It's not that optimistic really....we are well on our way to a cold and dry winter down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I went out and bought some big boy pants yesterday....this winter is shaping up to be one of "THOSE" winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 so how much snow with the frontal passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 so how much snow with the frontal passage? I'm expecting about a 1/3 of an inch... in my freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Today's euro has two clippers on it one around 132 or so and another around 168...first one looks to get squashed south and the second one goes to our north....big boy pants guys...go buy some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 big boy pants guys...go buy some. Are those like the diapers that kids can pull up and down when they have to go potty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 I can see one of those "clippers" phasing with the piece of energy that gets ejected out of the SW trof through CO. I think it will provide a shot at something around Wednesday. Keep in mind that guidance really has suffered with identifying the strength of northern stream energy in this blocking pattern. With the fast flow at 500mb and the confluence to our north it wont amplify too much, but hopefully enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 well hello there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 well hello there Where's the orange they love so dearly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 well hello there Buckle up Midlo...my gut tells me you guys are gonna' be bulls eyed the rest of this winter just go easy on us on the northern fringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The 8-14 day chart is even more impressive with most of the country below normal! well hello there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Buckle up Midlo...my gut tells me you guys are gonna' be bulls eyed the rest of this winter just go easy on us on the northern fringe i must say for all the doom and gloom this summer and fall so far this has been a great winter not so much for y'all but your time will come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I'd rather look back to last February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I'd rather look back to last February You're getting perilously close to Ji territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 You're getting perilously close to Ji territory. eh...maybe....i recover much faster than he does though. Once I realize where we are heading I settle into making fun....today seems to be my transition day to settling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 eh...maybe....i recover much faster than he does though. Once I realize where we are heading I settle into making fun....today seems to be my transition day to settling in. The transition today takes us from a bad winter to a horrible one. Only solace is LC sees an important east coast event Jan 13-17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The latest GFS looks very cold and stormy heading into January. 17.5 inches of snow already and possibly more on the way. I'm lovin it. Don't sue me McDonalds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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