Looking Ahead to January

[Dr No]

After recovering from the frustration of tracking a storm for 7 days that resulted in a bust and only a dusting... the beginning week or two of January actually looks pretty good, considering many pre-winter forecasts of torch.

- A -NAO is forecasted to be present, but relaxes some....that shouldn't surpress things like in December.

-General confluence over SE Canada

-Active pattern with storms in the west.

What I learned from the the Christmas bust:

-The Euro/Euro Ensembles is still king in the mid-range for general feature placement... it was very accurate that there was going to be a big bomb.. unfortunately it just worked out to be a bit too far north of the position that the Euro OP originally advertized. Still good for 5/6 days out, IMO.

-All guidance had issues around day 3. I think it was lack of sampling when the key northern stream features were visiting Santa.

-Equal weight should be applied to the GFS/NAM/EURO within 72. I went all in with the GFS as it usually still creeped west within 72 in times past due to the cold bias still lingering a bit. Clearly after the summer GFS enhancements, this assumption cannot be made anymore and it's wise to blend things.

-Ensemble Mean forecasts are overrated for forecasting within 3 days. The GFS ensembles will follow the OP. While the SREFS were OK with the storm track, the members with the westerly heavier precip shield in DC weighed the mean too wet. We were .05 compared to a forecast of .5.

[Jebman]

Let's hope the block comes back - If not - N VA is 2.5 inches on the season - I got 4 inches in 2001-2002.....

[MDstorm]

After recovering from the frustration of tracking a storm for 7 days that resulted in a bust and only a dusting... the beginning week or two of January actually looks pretty good, considering many pre-winter forecasts of torch.

- A -NAO is forecasted to be present, but relaxes some....that shouldn't surpress things like in December.

-General confluence over SE Canada

-Active pattern with storms in the west.

What I learned from the the Christmas bust:

-The Euro/Euro Ensembles is still king in the mid-range for general feature placement... it was very accurate that there was going to be a big bomb.. unfortunately it just worked out to be a bit too far north of the position that the Euro OP originally advertized. Still good for 5/6 days out, IMO.

-All guidance had issues around day 3. I think it was lack of sampling when the key northern stream features were visiting Santa.

-Equal weight should be applied to the GFS/NAM/EURO within 72. I went all in with the GFS as it usually still creeped west within 72 in times past due to the cold bias still lingering a bit. Clearly after the summer GFS enhancements, this assumption cannot be made anymore and it's wise to blend things.

-Ensemble Mean forecasts are overrated for forecasting within 3 days. The GFS ensembles will follow the OP. While the SREFS were OK with the storm track, the members with the westerly heavier precip shield in DC weighed the mean too wet. We were .05 compared to a forecast of .5.

'

"This post gets a +2", says the optimist in me.

MDstorm

[Wonderdog]

18z GFS shows an active pattern starting around 01/05/2010 after a brief semi warm-up. Could be interesting. I'm glad we get a week or so off from intense model watching. It was exhausting with this last bust.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

looks like one heck of an -nao coming back on the gfs 1/6/11 looks interesting

[Anyweather]

looks like one heck of an -nao coming back on the gfs 1/6/11 looks interesting

GFS keeps hinting at something in that timeframe. I like it too.

[Dr No]

The GFS is all kind of stupid with the degree of blocking/amplification tonight- right through 384 hours. How often do you maps amplified like this straight through the run? There's going to be some crazy weather in January if the GFS has the right idea and holds the blocking.

It's almost as if we are repeating back into a pattern that started with the Plains blizzard 2 weeks ago. Hopefully its not as cold.

[mdsnowlover]

that is an interesting observation , and it seeems to be accurrate. Only difference. possible ridge building farther west this time. Also midwest low is farther west too. The block is by the davis straits and greenland, which is also farther west too. And the block seems to be very strong on the ensembles. Wouldn't it be interesting if everything shifts west, so the next snowstorm does shift west. This midified pattern could be very interesting. STrong west to east flow at 500 mb.

[Dr No]

Today's Nogaps has an amped up LP in the southern states, and a phase between a southern stream system as a spoke of energy rotating around the PV in central Canada comes down.... out at day 7.

Typically if the Nogaps gets amped on something (it has a large supression bias) the Euro catches on soon after. I'd expect the next couple Euro runs to start to show something around day 7.

[Don Cherry's Jacket]

Given the weather forecast for next week, with the dramatic increase in temparatures, I would think a storm the next week might have decent mixing/sticking/melting issues. We've been under 32 for about 2-3 weeks solid, and a few days of 50s will warm the ground up a lot. Too early to tell, but I could see us being underwhelmed.

[MN Transplant]

Bust on temps today, especially by the MOS guidance. 45 at DCA, while NWS point-and-click still has 40 for the forecasted high, and the 12z models are in the mid-upper 30s. The GFS MOS seems particularly low for the rest of the week, keeping temps in the 40s.

[ovechkin]

Given the weather forecast for next week, with the dramatic increase in temparatures, I would think a storm the next week might have decent mixing/sticking/melting issues. We've been under 32 for about 2-3 weeks solid, and a few days of 50s will warm the ground up a lot. Too early to tell, but I could see us being underwhelmed.

10 of the 11 days prior to the 12/18-19 storm last year had temps in the 40's or 50's and even the day of, temps were above freezing.

the temps next week, mixing etc.. is one issue, but the warm ground thing is often overrated- A good strong strom, precip rates, and/or time of day can make up for previous warmth pretty quickly.

[Ian]

Bust on temps today, especially by the MOS guidance. 45 at DCA, while NWS point-and-click still has 40 for the forecasted high, and the 12z models are in the mid-upper 30s. The GFS MOS seems particularly low for the rest of the week, keeping temps in the 40s.

yeah was surprised to see temps in the mid-40s based on predictions/mos.. now if we can just lose the rest of the wind.

[Ellinwood]

yeah was surprised to see temps in the mid-40s based on predictions/mos.. now if we can just lose the rest of the wind.

It'll die down tonight... though I'm glad for the wind because the massive downsloping is what's giving us these warmer temps

[Don Cherry's Jacket]

10 of the 11 days prior to the 12/18-19 storm last year had temps in the 40's or 50's and even the day of, temps were above freezing.

the temps next week, mixing etc.. is one issue, but the warm ground thing is often overrated- A good strong strom, precip rates, and/or time of day can make up for previous warmth pretty quickly.

Right, I was semi-intentionally conflating those. One issue would be mixing, but I haven't really dug into the data/projections out there - if any is even available yet - to see if that's an issue. Me might have to wait until the soundings come out. (Assuming about 900 things happen first, like the storm actually happens....)

As for the surface temp, maybe it is a little overdone, but the 12/18-19 storm did have a decent period of non-sticking because of that warmth. Compare that to 2/6 which, between the temps and the existing snow pack started accumulating almost immediately.

[Ian]

euro a yawn through the whole cycle.. 0c line goes well north eventually and hangs out there

[VAsnowlvr82]

That is completely and utterly wrong. The 12/19 storm started accumulating immediately while the 2/5-6 storm struggled for hours.

Right, I was semi-intentionally conflating those. One issue would be mixing, but I haven't really dug into the data/projections out there - if any is even available yet - to see if that's an issue. Me might have to wait until the soundings come out. (Assuming about 900 things happen first, like the storm actually happens....)

As for the surface temp, maybe it is a little overdone, but the 12/18-19 storm did have a decent period of non-sticking because of that warmth. Compare that to 2/6 which, between the temps and the existing snow pack started accumulating almost immediately.

[mitchnick]

euro a yawn through the whole cycle.. 0c line goes well north eventually and hangs out there

fwiw, 10 day Euro may have positive signs with a trough over Japan and an uncharacteristically obvious -AO

http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2010122812!!/

[Ger]

That is completely and utterly wrong. The 12/19 storm started accumulating immediately while the 2/5-6 storm struggled for hours.

Thank you!

[Ger]

That is completely and utterly wrong. The 12/19 storm started accumulating immediately while the 2/5-6 storm struggled for hours.

I remember thinking a bust was coming on accumulations as the snow fell and melted on contact (even in the grass!) from late morning to around 4 in D.C. proper

[Dr No]

Hopefully the GFS has the right idea... this setup looks great for the Jan 5-8 period. The Euro suffers badly from the SW bias out at this time range, but I suspect it will come around.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Right, I was semi-intentionally conflating those. One issue would be mixing, but I haven't really dug into the data/projections out there - if any is even available yet - to see if that's an issue. Me might have to wait until the soundings come out. (Assuming about 900 things happen first, like the storm actually happens....)

As for the surface temp, maybe it is a little overdone, but the 12/18-19 storm did have a decent period of non-sticking because of that warmth. Compare that to 2/6 which, between the temps and the existing snow pack started accumulating almost immediately.

I think you've gotten your events confused. The December storm started at night in NoVA, with temps well below freezing. At least over this way that is. The ground was frozen solid and I doubt one flake melted. The day the Feb storm started, the temp was right at freezing, and it had trouble accumulating on hard surfaces in the middle of the day. By about 3 or 4 in the afternoon, with no solar radiation and dropping temps, it went downhill fast.

As to your earlier post, a few days in the 50's, especially if a couple are cloudy with rain, won't warm the ground "a lot". They may thaw the top inch or so, but in most places the ground is rock solid frozen. You have no sun to speak of either.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

how about some hi pressure in canada

[Dr No]

lol... Extends from the Arctic Ocean down to the GOM... Burrr....

The blocking on the GFS is insane from this weekend on... if it is that strong, so much about the lack of supression.

[aldie 22]

All of the discussion on the main forum suggests to me that the DC area is setting up to be the real battle zone for the cold/cool and warm. To me that suggests we are looking at 33 and rain or possibly some ice on the hand rails and grills.

And just looking at the GFS verbatim we are looking at temps in the mid upper 30's for the entire run.

[mitchnick]

All of the discussion on the main forum suggests to me that the DC area is setting up to be the real battle zone for the cold/cool and warm. To me that suggests we are looking at 33 and rain or possibly some ice on the hand rails and grills.

And just looking at the GFS verbatim we are looking at temps in the mid upper 30's for the entire run.

meh, nobody knows but that would be climo for us in a mod NINA wouldn't it?

[aldie 22]

meh, nobody knows but that would be climo for us in a mod NINA wouldn't it?

Probably a little more of a tease than climo for the strength of this nina...I would assume we would be much warmer than what it looks to get. Climo even in the best of years is not that great for our area so I feel like it is easy to just throw out the climo excuse...we are obviously looking at something unusual with the block this year so if that just gives us climo then we need to move I guess

[mitchnick]

Probably a little more of a tease than climo for the strength of this nina...I would assume we would be much warmer than what it looks to get. Climo even in the best of years is not that great for our area so I feel like it is easy to just throw out the climo excuse...we are obviously looking at something unusual with the block this year so if that just gives us climo then we need to move I guess

I hear ya, but like I said, nobody knows

look at what just happened with the forecasts 24 hours (and less) in advance of the last "event"

its gonna' be boring while the pattern reloads

but take it as a good thing since the last pattern, albeit cold, yielded next to nothing in the snow dept, and considering what areas to our south and east received in DEC, I'm willing to wait as long as it takes

[aldie 22]

I hear ya, but like I said, nobody knows

look at what just happened with the forecasts 24 hours (and less) in advance of the last "event"

its gonna' be boring while the pattern reloads

but take it as a good thing since the last pattern, albeit cold, yielded next to nothing in the snow dept, and considering what areas to our south and east received in DEC, I'm willing to wait as long as it takes

I think what I like most is watching the curve balls mother natures throws at us....A few years ago it was the warm January forecasts that busted and then in 07 we had the frigid February that very few had called for....soooo I like seeing the warm January's go poof and as of now there is a real consensus for a warm Feb so I want to see that go up in smoke as well. Might as well have the awful CFS model verify and be cold through March.

[MDstorm]

I guess we are kind of due for some slop/ice. Last year was either snow or no. This year so far has been mainly just no. Of course this year precip type per "climo" has been turned on it's head--- just ask Ocean City and Norfolk. We may be able to squeeze out more snow than you would expect in this Nina given the cooperation of the Atlantic. Until then, enjoy the calm of the next 5-7 days. After that, there will likely be more emotional rollercoaster rides.

MDstorm