Major cold and significant snowstorm for Montana

[snowdude]

Looks like this system could be the biggest storm of the season here in Great Falls.

EURO and GFS have around 0.70" liquid equivalent Wednesday through Thursday with temperatures in the single digits and teens. Ratios of 17:1 and 25:1 are likely and accumulations of 6-12"+ are possible. Models have consistently had this storm looking pretty strong for days now. So a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for north, central, and southwest Montana.

I'm excited about the event and the storm then moves into the the northern Plains for that New Year special everyone is talking about.

Any other thoughts on this storm?

Here's the weather story from the NWS:

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like you're going to be upping your seasonal totals by quite a bit after this week!

[snowdude]

Looks like you're going to be upping your seasonal totals by quite a bit after this week!

Yeah I hope so. But we usually get small storms that eventually add up to a lot at the end of the season, so this one looks bigger than we've had so far. I want bigger though like Blizzopolis. lol

[nzucker]

Yeah I hope so. But we usually get small storms that eventually add up to a lot at the end of the season, so this one looks bigger than we've had so far. I want bigger though like Blizzopolis. lol

Yes, this looks like a good snowstorm for Montana; I almost wish I had lived there for the winter instead of last summer. I bet Glacier National Park will get pounded with this blizzard, and I certainly envy the idea of having a blizzard on the open plains with 850s dropping to -20C behind the storm. Montana may go into a long cold spell with the airmass behind the storm and then the potential for a big AK block which has been showing up on the GFS, serving to drive cold air into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.

[Mercurial]

Looks like I'll be riding this one out in Elk Park, MT (elev 6300 feet) :) . Current snow depth is around 15" here so it'd be nice to add 12-24 inches to that. Being on top of the Continental Divide has its advantages LOL.

Driving back to Calgary on Friday though.

[baroclinic_instability]

Good storm setup for the MT high plains with a sharp arctic boundary in the low levels overriden by an east component as the main low plows across southern MT. The Continental divide further "blocks" the flow and everything bunches up in that region. Great Falls should do well with this storm.

[baroclinic_instability]

Looks like I'll be riding this one out in Elk Park, MT (elev 6300 feet) :) . Current snow depth is around 15" here so it'd be nice to add 12-24 inches to that. Being on top of the Continental Divide has its advantages LOL.

Driving back to Calgary on Friday though.

Calgary is one of the hardest locations to forecast for mainly owing to its location in the high plains E of the Divide but high enough to begin seeing upslope enhancement from arctic fronts moving in from the N as the flow turns and backs into the mountains.

[Mercurial]

Calgary is one of the hardest locations to forecast for mainly owing to its location in the high plains E of the Divide but high enough to begin seeing upslope enhancement from arctic fronts moving in from the N as the flow turns and backs into the mountains.

Yeah. The climate in Great Falls is definitely better though... they get some nice lift from the belt mountains SE of town. Calgary is too dry for my tastes, but at least it's cold enough to hold snowcover for most of the winter.

[Mercurial]

This is definitely the type of storm where my old stomping grounds in Bozeman gets shafted. Being just to the west/northwest of the Bridger and Gallatin mountains usually helped with snow totals, but with winds out of the east that geography begins to work against you. NWS will bust there I'm sure.

I don't know much about weather generally but just from my knowledge of local climo... my (relatively baseless ) predictions:

Great Falls: 10"

Helena: 6"

Bozeman: 4"

[baroclinic_instability]

Yeah. The climate in Great Falls is definitely better though... they get some nice lift from the belt mountains SE of town. Calgary is too dry for my tastes, but at least it's cold enough to hold snowcover for most of the winter.

Agreed

I blogged about the Belt range and Great Falls with a different storm.

http://greatlakes.sa...mouth_page.html

[Mercurial]

All the news of the HECS back east has me hungry for snow.... I need 20" right now.

[snowdude]

Snowing pretty good here in Great Falls. I'd say we have close to 4 inches already, maybe more.

It started snowing with temps near 40 and nothing was sticking until the front went through, which was very impressive. Winds picked up quickly and there were near blizzard conditions with temps falling into the teens.

[Mercurial]

Snowing pretty good here in Great Falls. I'd say we have close to 4 inches already, maybe more.

It started snowing with temps near 40 and nothing was sticking until the front went through, which was very impressive. Winds picked up quickly and there were near blizzard conditions with temps falling into the teens.

Cold fronts in the northern Rockies can be awesome. I've seen it many times go from 50+ and sunny to heavy snow in no time at all. I guess back in Virginia it'd be a bad sign to have temps at 40 at the onset of precip... not so much here though. When I first moved out here from New York I was fascinated by how the temp would always plummet just in time for the snow, lol.

Anyways we went out driving today and I took some pics.

[baroclinic_instability]

What pass is that?

[Mercurial]

What pass is that?

MacDonald Pass, elevation 6300 feet. There's some good x-country skiing around that area, and it's gorgeous when the visibility is better.

[baroclinic_instability]

Looks nice. I have been on some nasty passes, worst is probably Teton Pass in Wyoming as it traverses the south end of the Teton Range. Grade, winter weather, and sharp dropoffs make it plain scary.

[Mercurial]

Looks nice. I have been on some nasty passes, worst is probably Teton Pass in Wyoming as it traverses the south end of the Teton Range. Grade, winter weather, and sharp dropoffs make it plain scary.

I've never been on that one, but I think most of the passes in Montana are pretty tame in general. The areas that get the really get shellacked with snow are above most of the passes, and it's difficult to access them when the roads are as bad as they are today. When I lived in Bozeman I'd just drive up to Big Sky (elev 7500-8000 feet) when I wanted to see really prodigious amounts of snow but that's a ways away from here.

[FarmerRick]

MacDonald Pass, elevation 6300 feet. There's some good x-country skiing around that area, and it's gorgeous when the visibility is better.

I used to travel that pass nearly every day. Lived by Garrison(4500 ft.) and worked in Helena. Loved blowing by 4x4's in my little 91 Civic with studded snow tires on it. Only way to get around in MT in the winter.

DOT cameras on MT mountain passes and other areas: My link

[Mercurial]

I used to travel that pass nearly every day. Lived by Garrison(4500 ft.) and worked in Helena. Loved blowing by 4x4's in my little 91 Civic with studded snow tires on it. Only way to get around in MT in the winter.

DOT cameras on MT mountain passes and other areas: My link

Wow very nice. That must have been a fun commute. I've been at the top of the pass several times to ski and it seems that they consistently have a good 2-3+ feet up there. It's not that obvious when you're just driving through the area on the highway.

I like the little towns west of the divide... Garrison, Avon, Elliston. It's greener and lusher on that side of the divide for sure.

[Mercurial]

So anyways I saw snowdude on TV this morning. Nice job pretending that you wished you could forecast warmer temps... we all know that down deep you were pulling for the blizzard Seriously though it was the first time I saw you on TV and thought you did great.

[snowdude]

So anyways I saw snowdude on TV this morning. Nice job pretending that you wished you could forecast warmer temps... we all know that down deep you were pulling for the blizzard Seriously though it was the first time I saw you on TV and thought you did great.

Thanks! These morning shifts are killing me. lol

And I do love snow and blizzards...that's what I wanted. Great pics by the way. 11 inches was the total in Great Falls! Daily record!