:axe:

[gymengineer]

The blizz of Feb 1899 was probably something like it... a colder version at least. Knickerbocker (1922) too I guess, but that one was like Feb 5-6 last yr I think at least in terms of a wetter snowfall -- the winds were likely stronger in the city in Knickerbocker tho. Feb 1958 was close to blizzard criteria at the end of the storm but lesser snow. 1996 did not reach criteria in the city.

This storm was greater than any of the storms last yr imo.. It was sorta like a combo of one of the two big ones then the real deal blizz, at least in the hardest hit swath from NJ to near BOS. I was watching Twitter streams last night and the reports of thundersnow in and around NYC were pretty amazing for their number and steadiness. It must have been pretty awe inspiring in some of those areas... Bloomberg is getting ripped to shreds.

I don't think the knickerbocker storm was windier in DC than 2/5-6. DC was frequently gusting between 30 and 40 mph between 10 pm and 2 am. Unless you have other data, I have never read anything suggesting 40 mph wind gusts in the Knickerbocker storm.

Also, maybe this is just my opinion, but I think this storm was about the same in effects as the 2/5-6 storm in the heaviest snow areas. Inland NJ in this storm had more thundersnow, sure, but Howard County MD had just as strong winds in 2/5-6 as inland NJ and the snow was coming down just as hard. The totals are almost identical, if not a bit higher in 2/5-6.

If you're just comparing downtown DC to downtown NYC, then it was still pretty close. I just rewatched the youtube clips from 11 pm - 2 am in DC and they're really not that much different than the vids from NYC last night. If you look at DCA obs vs. KNYC (Cent Park) obs, DCA actually had similar winds with a lesser length of heavy snow. Of course Kennedy and LaGuardia obs completely beat those from DC. I think the experience last night *was* more intense for NYC than DC in 2/5-6, but not by much.

[Ian]

I don't think the knickerbocker storm was windier in DC than 2/5-6. DC was frequently gusting between 30 and 40 mph between 10 pm and 2 am. Unless you have other data, I have never read anything suggesting 40 mph wind gusts in the Knickerbocker storm.

Also, maybe this is just my opinion, but I think this storm was about the same in effects as the 2/5-6 storm in the heaviest snow areas. Inland NJ in this storm had more thundersnow, sure, but Howard County MD had just as strong winds in 2/5-6 as inland NJ and the snow was coming down just as hard. The totals are almost identical, if not a bit higher in 2/5-6.

If you're just comparing downtown DC to downtown NYC, then it was still pretty close. I just rewatched the youtube clips from 11 pm - 2 am in DC and they're really not that much different than the vids from NYC last night. If you look at DCA obs vs. KNYC (Cent Park) obs, DCA actually had similar winds with a lesser length of heavy snow. Of course Kennedy and LaGuardia obs completely beat those from DC, and compare more to KNHK (Patuxtent River Naval). I think the experience last night *was* more intense for NYC than DC in 2/5-6, but not by much.

I had to look it up again through sources.. I guess I should footnote. This came from some stuff I wrote for D.C. snow book covering all history which Kevin and I put off for now when doing the 09-10 one.

It came from here: http://www.scidacrev...pdf/climate.pdf p 3 of pdf.. I guess not authoritative, nor D.C. specific now that I look again. From the map perhaps it references places northeast toward PHL... not sure what Kocin has on it.

I was just comparing downtown D.C. to down NYC in my thoughts there as the question pertained to D.C. Looking at the obs maybe you're right on the wind side with it not being that much greater if at all, though I think NYC was probably a bit higher. Central Park's winds seem lower than all the surrounding areas just at a quick glance. The distance between LGA/NYC/EWR is much smaller than that of DCA to NHK. Don't want to go Wx53, and it's been brought up before but wonder how representative NYC is? And, the winds in the immediate wake of the storm were definitely a greater magnitude.

This low was a good deal stronger than the feb 5-6 at closest passes to both locations... I know that's not all of it but it does matter a bit I guess with the intensity of the bursts/overall wind output etc. Were people nw of DC getting 2-4"/hr rates for any period of time? Seems ratios were probably better in this storm than Feb 5-6 though admittedly I have not looked at liquid numbers.

[gymengineer]

I had to look it up again through sources.. I guess I should footnote. This came from some stuff I wrote for D.C. snow book covering all history which Kevin and I put off for now when doing the 09-10 one.

It came from here: http://www.scidacrev...pdf/climate.pdf p 3 of pdf.. I guess not authoritative, nor D.C. specific now that I look again. From the map perhaps it references places northeast toward PHL... not sure what Kocin has on it.

I was just comparing downtown D.C. to down NYC in my thoughts there as the question pertained to D.C. Looking at the obs maybe you're right on the wind side with it not being that much greater if at all, though I think NYC was probably a bit higher. Central Park's winds seem lower than all the surrounding areas just at a quick glance. The distance between LGA/NYC/EWR is much smaller than that of DCA to NHK. Don't want to go Wx53, and it's been brought up before but wonder how representative NYC is? And, the winds in the immediate wake of the storm were definitely a greater magnitude.

This low was a good deal stronger than the feb 5-6 at closest passes to both locations... I know that's not all of it but it does matter a bit I guess with the intensity of the bursts/overall wind output etc. Were people nw of DC getting 2-4"/hr rates for any period of time? Seems ratios were probably better in this storm than Feb 5-6 though admittedly I have not looked at liquid numbers.

Yes, people N of DC were reporting 2-4"/hr rates during the peak (again Howard County) from about 10 pm to 2 am. Then, there was another burst of 2"/hr rates during the morning.

KDCA had a bit more wind during the snow than KNYC did looking over the observations. But you're of course right about the location of KNYC making it hard to ever record strong gusts. Again, I do agree with you that the conditions last night in NYC were more intense than in DC in 2/5-6. And the conditions on Long Island (60+ mph gusts with prolonged heavy snow) would never be experienced in downtown DC. I just didn't want you to sell short an incredible night that you experienced yourself : ) It compares well even as it falls somewhat short.

[Ger]

How many years have featured a HECS early in the season, and then gone on to be bad winters?

[MidlothianWX]

this is my favorite

Best image ever

[North Balti Zen]

Ian...just looked in the KU book on the Knickerbocker storm and they have it as high winds near the coast but "winds were more moderate in the Washington-Baltimore region, averaging 10-20 mph limiting the amount of drifting in the metropolitan areas." KU Northeast Snowstorms: Vol. II The Cases p. 326

[MN Transplant]

Another view. A little generous for the Beltway.

[aldie 22]

I compare this to having a little piece of cuticle hanging off of your thumb that hurts some and you spend all day messing with it and the pain intensifies then as the cuticle finally gives way and falls off the area of skin pain maxes out then goes numb and you no longer feel it.

Soooo let's keep posting maps that show our pain so eventually we will go numb and no longer care

[PhineasC]

I compare this to having a little piece of cuticle hanging off of your thumb that hurts some and you spend all day messing with it and the pain intensifies then as the cuticle finally gives way and falls off the area of skin pain maxes out then goes numb and you no longer feel it.

Soooo let's keep posting maps that show our pain so eventually we will go numb and no longer care

It is sort of like when your team is in a big football game (say Super Bowl or Conference Championship) and they lose by a FG at the end. Normally, I would turn off the TV and do something else. I guess some folks will watch the confetti fall, all postgame interviews with the winning team, and the postgame show with a retrospective on how the win was "destiny."

[nj2va]

I compare this to having a little piece of cuticle hanging off of your thumb that hurts some and you spend all day messing with it and the pain intensifies then as the cuticle finally gives way and falls off the area of skin pain maxes out then goes numb and you no longer feel it.

Soooo let's keep posting maps that show our pain so eventually we will go numb and no longer care

Awesome post.

Talked to my parents last night on the coast in Central Jersey - 30" of snow and 5-6' drifts. I'm already over it just thinking about the shoveling/digging out of cars and come Friday when NJ/NYC turn into a lake of melting, dirty snow.

[Ian]

Yes, people N of DC were reporting 2-4"/hr rates during the peak (again Howard County) from about 10 pm to 2 am. Then, there was another burst of 2"/hr rates during the morning.

KDCA had a bit more wind during the snow than KNYC did looking over the observations. But you're of course right about the location of KNYC making it hard to ever record strong gusts. Again, I do agree with you that the conditions last night in NYC were more intense than in DC in 2/5-6. And the conditions on Long Island (60+ mph gusts with prolonged heavy snow) would never be experienced in downtown DC. I just didn't want you to sell short an incredible night that you experienced yourself : ) It compares well even as it falls somewhat short.

Fair enough. I certainly wouldnt sell feb 5-6 short. I think in some ways it was a bigger deal than this weekend's storm. I haven't seen maps yet but I get the feeling that the heaviest was confined to a smaller area. I just like really powerful lows.. even if they don't necessarily mean that much more in the end.

[mitchnick]

JB was complaining that he was getting e-mails from irate people in the DCA/BWI area over him blowing the call

I wonder who that could be

[Midlo Snow Maker]

JB was complaining that he was getting e-mails from irate people in the DCA/BWI area over him blowing the call

I wonder who that could be

i tell ya people are just brutal about their snow

[ravensrule]

JB was complaining that he was getting e-mails from irate people in the DCA/BWI area over him blowing the call

I wonder who that could be

Paging JI to Mr. Bastardi's office .

[Fozz]

Another view. A little generous for the Beltway.

Sometimes that map is wrong. I remember a storm in March 2004 that brought snow to Philly and central PA, but not my backyard, yet it had my area in an inch of snow.

[usedtobe]

i tell ya people are just brutal about their snow

I got called out at CWG, I thought it was Ji in disguise , but then the guy later said he was sorry for calling me out.

[aldie 22]

I got called out at CWG, I thought it was Ji in disguise , but then the guy later said he was sorry for calling me out.

I'm all for being disappointed that we didn't get any snow but that's just crazy to blame someone or call them out...I bet if we even got 3-6" people would still be complaining because it wasn't as much as up north...

Anyway...sounds like our snow chances aren't dead yet this winter...seems like January may not be too warm and a normal January would probably give us at least some opportunities for some snow. My fingers are crossed for sure.

Hey Wes...when a forecast doesn't go as planned do you find yourself viewing any potential coming threats with an even more critical eye or have you done this so long that each storm is viewed with the same scrutiny. For me I think anything coming up I would say is not happening until the first flake falls but I guess that's how I view all events.

[marked8]

It is 48 degrees at my house in Manassas right now (home weather station) and 45 at the airport. The snow would have melted today anyway.

[Avdave]

Sometimes that map is wrong. I remember a storm in March 2004 that brought snow to Philly and central PA, but not my backyard, yet it had my area in an inch of snow.

OMG a whole inch? You should have called them up and told them about that. Please just stop it.

[Wonderdog]

It seems to me that over my lifetime, most, but certainly not all mets, are afraid of going out on a limb whether to call a big storm or the reverse. I guess that's part and parcel of taking a paycheck with the expectation of being right especially during severe weather conditions. It seems to me, in my opinion, that mets on this board routinely give their thoughts on a particular situation but their explanation, more often than not, contains a qualifier or two. I would prefer a "I don't know yet" or a " I'm going to wait for more guidance before committing to a forecast". If they are fearful of repercussions with blowing a forecast, maybe they are in the wrong line of work.

How do you know they're not covering their buts. For them the bigger problem would be not forecasting an event when the NWS had a warning and then having it happen. To me it smacks of making an excuse for something you ran with and then trying to foist the blame on someone else.

[Fozz]

OMG a whole inch? You should have called them up and told them about that. Please just stop it.

The map currently has MBY with about 2". There is nothing here.

[Avdave]

The map currently has MBY with about 2". There is nothing here.

Dont change the topic around, you were talking about a storm in 2004. Secondly, you are barely on the 2" line, you think they can get it down to exact degree where the snow is and isnt on the ground? I bet if that map was able to zoom in on, you would see it has nothing for you on top of mountain there.

Parts of northern Harford and Cecil county did get some snows

[Ian]

It seems to me that over my lifetime, most, but certainly not all mets, are afraid of going out on a limb whether to call a big storm or the reverse. I guess that's part and parcel of taking a paycheck with the expectation of being right especially during severe weather conditions. It seems to me, in my opinion, that mets on this board routinely give their thoughts on a particular situation but their explanation, more often than not, contains a qualifier or two. I would prefer a "I don't know yet" or a " I'm going to wait for more guidance before committing to a forecast". If they are fearful of repercussions with blowing a forecast, maybe they are in the wrong line of work.

there arent a ton of storm situations where you have such high confidence that you can say something WILL happen without doubt. i think most forecasters understand that pretty well and it's right for them to leave a qualifier or two in there. may, possible, etc... all good words. those who get the worst from the weenies after often deserve it because they have too much hubris.. it's no shock that the loudmouth red tagger ran off after the storm. hopefully he'll remember posting on a msg board isnt his strong suit.

[Fozz]

Sont change the topic around, you were talking about a storm in 2004. Secondly, you are barely on the 2" line, you think they can get it down to exact degree where the snow is and isnt on the ground. I bet if that map was able to zoom in on, you would see it has nothing for you on top of mountain there.

Parts of northern Harford and Cecil county did get some snows

I looked more closely this time and saw the 2" zone extended further than reality, right to MBY. I would think that they look at a visible satellite image when making the snow depth maps, but otherwise I guess they can't get it exactly right.

[Jebman]

Dec 28: Forecasted high today was 41 degrees. We just topped out at 48 degrees.

Each day actual highs will be about 5 degrees higher than forecast.

New Years Day high will top out in the low/mid 60s FTL. I feel bad for southern NJ - Some of that warm air is going to encroach on that region.

[Wonderdog]

I do not think that making a forecast within 12-15 hours of an event is too much to ask of a professional. If it needs to be changed after the next model run or after other data is analyzed, then I have no problem with the pro revising his or her forecast. They are being paid for their work after all. It's not a hobby to them. Anyone can say it will snow in a certain location as long as the storm stays on a certain track and the temperature is conducive to snow (plus other data).That being said, I know it is very tricky and things change within hours. I guess I want my met to make a forecast, change it if need be, and if it doesn't verify explain what happened. I won't hold it against the met. How else can we really judge the effectiveness of any particular forecaster if we accept qualifiers in a forecast? Make the forecast and stick by it. I imagine that most if not all pros have been making forecasts since they were 8 years old. That's what they enjoyed doing their whole life, making forecasts and seeing if it verified. It would be a shame if a pro had to temper his forecasting because of fallout from being wrong but I guess that's the world we live in.

there arent a ton of storm situations where you have such high confidence that you can say something WILL happen without doubt. i think most forecasters understand that pretty well and it's right for them to leave a qualifier or two in there. may, possible, etc... all good words. those who get the worst from the weenies after often deserve it because they have too much hubris.. it's no shock that the loudmouth red tagger ran off after the storm. hopefully he'll remember posting on a msg board isnt his strong suit.

[ThreeRedheads]

I do not think that making a forecast within 12-15 hours of an event is too much to ask of a professional. If it needs to be changed after the next model run or after other data is analyzed, then I have no problem with the pro revising his or her forecast. They are being paid for their work after all. It's not a hobby to them. Anyone can say it will snow in a certain location as long as the storm stays on a certain track and the temperature is conducive to snow (plus other data).That being said, I know it is very tricky and things change within hours. I guess I want my met to make a forecast, change it if need be, and if it doesn't verify explain what happened. I won't hold it against the met. How else can we really judge the effectiveness of any particular forecaster if we accept qualifiers in a forecast? Make the forecast and stick by it. I imagine that most if not all pros have been making forecasts since they were 8 years old. That's what they enjoyed doing their whole life, making forecasts and seeing if it verified. It would be a shame if a pro had to temper his forecasting because of fallout from being wrong but I guess that's the world we live in.

I understand your frustration, but I'm confused about the bolded parts above. You want a met to make a forecast and change it or you want them to make the forecast and stick by it. It's not an exact science and situations change. I would rather have a met tell me why there's uncertainty, like Wes. I completely trust his forecasting skills and his ability to explain various scenarios..

[eyewall]

How much did you get from this?

This time we got 6.2 which is a nice snowfall here.

[Wonderdog]

Yes that was confusing. What I mean is make your forecast without qualifiers but if new data dictates a change needs to be made later on, revise the forecast and be clear about it. I just don't like the forecaster who makes a forecast with the words "if", "possibly", or "probably" in it. A forecast is by definition, a prediction. In my perfect world, a prediction is an event I believe will take place based on data at my disposal, not possibly will take place. Maybe the industry should change the term weather forecast to weather possibilities.

I understand your frustration, but I'm confused about the bolded parts above. You want a met to make a forecast and change it or you want them to make the forecast and stick by it. It's not an exact science and situations change. I would rather have a met tell me why there's uncertainty, like Wes. I completely trust his forecasting skills and his ability to explain various scenarios..

[NattyBo]

Slightly OT, but I had to post this:

Kinda had an moment when visting my uncle, who works at NOAA/NCEP/JCSDA near Branch Ave (and is fairly high up I think). I asked if he had seen the map (of course) and he called me a "weather weenie" for expecting much snow in MoCo this time. First thing I could think of was to post it here, LOL.

He lives in SoMD though so at least after he called me a weenie I got to take my kid sledding on his hills, and I got to see some snow from this storm after all.