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Upstate NY/North Country Winter Thread II


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...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS: SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

* HAZARDS: MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES.

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NWS ALB still likes the potential for accumulating snow on Friday. I'm curious to see if the models come in to better agreement on the amount of precip.

----------------

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ACOMPLEX STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING. LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERNCONUS DEEPENS WITH AN UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY CUTTING OVER OVER THEWEEKEND. THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THEFAST FLOW AND EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE UPPER LOW DOES CUT OFF ALLHAVE BIG IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST.CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHEST FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY AS A LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVECONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS.THE FORECAST GETS COMPLICATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE OFCOASTAL LOWS. THE FIRST LOW IS MODELED TO DEVELOP ALONG THESOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN HEADS NORTHEAST REMAININGOFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW IS MODELED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EASTWARDACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND WEAKENS. THE COASTAL LOW BECOME THEPRIMARY LOW AND IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARDREMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MODELS DO INDICATE ANINVERTED TROUGH MAY OCCUR WHICH INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FORACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.THE GFSENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS ARE INFAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND THE FIRST COASTALLOW AND THE ECMWF FITS IN WITH THEM ALSO. THE SPREAD INCREASES INREGARDS TO THE SECOND COASTAL LOW AS ITS HEAD NORTHEASTWARD.AT THIS TIME HAVE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR SNOW FOR SATURDAY ANDSATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL KEEPMENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

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Quite a narrow band of snow with the inverted trough in the 0Z NAM. The NAM seems to have flattened the trough a little bit again. Hopefully is will be a bit sharper at the base so the snow can be a little more widespread. The models sure are having trouble with all of the little vortmaxes rotating around the closed low. Should be interesting seeing how this thing evolves. I am anxious to switch back to my snow x/c skis instead of my roller x/c skis.

0z nam

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I had to go up to the Essex County Courthouse in Elizabethtown today and ran into some nice light snow above Lake George. Generally accumulation from Pottersville north...as much as two inches in some spots between exits 28 and 30. This was related to the weak clipper....

NWS ALB still likes the potential for accumulating snow on Friday. I'm curious to see if the models come in to better agreement on the amount of precip.

----------------

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ACOMPLEX STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING. LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERNCONUS DEEPENS WITH AN UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY CUTTING OVER OVER THEWEEKEND. THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THEFAST FLOW AND EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE UPPER LOW DOES CUT OFF ALLHAVE BIG IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST.CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHEST FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY AS A LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVECONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS.THE FORECAST GETS COMPLICATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE OFCOASTAL LOWS. THE FIRST LOW IS MODELED TO DEVELOP ALONG THESOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN HEADS NORTHEAST REMAININGOFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW IS MODELED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EASTWARDACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND WEAKENS. THE COASTAL LOW BECOME THEPRIMARY LOW AND IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARDREMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MODELS DO INDICATE ANINVERTED TROUGH MAY OCCUR WHICH INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FORACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.THE GFSENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS ARE INFAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND THE FIRST COASTALLOW AND THE ECMWF FITS IN WITH THEM ALSO. THE SPREAD INCREASES INREGARDS TO THE SECOND COASTAL LOW AS ITS HEAD NORTHEASTWARD.AT THIS TIME HAVE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR SNOW FOR SATURDAY ANDSATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL KEEPMENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

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But that was the only snow to be found anywhere along the Northway through exit 30. No pre-existing snow cover (other than a few patches). That's pretty poor for January 4th. Schroon Lake looked all frozen and was pretty with the inch of snow on it.

I had to go up to the Essex County Courthouse in Elizabethtown today and ran into some nice light snow above Lake George. Generally accumulation from Pottersville north...as much as two inches in some spots between exits 28 and 30. This was related to the weak clipper....

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The DAK'S have been suffering. Snowshoes and/or skis still aren't required in the high peaks...that stinks for 1/4!:thumbsdown: Hopefully that changes soon.

But that was the only snow to be found anywhere along the Northway through exit 30. No pre-existing snow cover (other than a few patches). That's pretty poor for January 4th. Schroon Lake looked all frozen and was pretty with the inch of snow on it.

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Needless to say, Environment Canada no longer calling for snow on Thursday in Ottawa, just Friday now. I'm sure by this time tomorrow, it'll be something like "60% chance of flurries". Next week's storm isn't looking that promising for my region either.

I posted a comment in the thread about Bastardi now calling for a cold january. Unfortunately, my region, along with northern Vermont and Maine still look set to be above normal for the month. There was an article in the Ottawa Citizen today, saying how this winter is forecast to remain very dry for Ottawa.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/weather-watch/Capital+three+month+forecast+looking+warm/4053512/story.html

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pretty impressive pattern. Massive -NAO but vortex too close. Result is normal cold and uneventful wx for the most part. It should be abundantly clear that any slp formation will be well offshore and of little consequence to CNY. Hudson Valley may do ok though as we saw for 12/26 storm. Some stray lake effect around the past few days but other than that its a snoozefest. Some minor snow showers here now, appear to be breaking up and moving south. Maybe an inch here. Which is the first measurable snow in about 3 weeks.

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pretty impressive pattern. Massive -NAO but vortex too close. Result is normal cold and uneventful wx for the most part. It should be abundantly clear that any slp formation will be well offshore and of little consequence to CNY. Hudson Valley may do ok though as we saw for 12/26 storm. Some stray lake effect around the past few days but other than that its a snoozefest. Some minor snow showers here now, appear to be breaking up and moving south. Maybe an inch here. Which is the first measurable snow in about 3 weeks.

In other words we can expect to miss out on the harsh cold and snow that those in other regional threads are getting excited about?

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WHAT CONTINUES TO BE

IMPRESSIVE IS THE NW EXTENDING DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MAY ALSO BE

AN EXTENSION OF THE TROWAL /TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT/. THIS

DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE FCST AREA COULD

PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS

HAVE SHIFTED IT JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH

SOME OSCILLATION BACK NORTH WITH THE 18Z/JAN 4 GFS. THE CAN GGEM

AND THE ECMWF ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS CONTINUAL DEFORMATION ZONE...AND

THE FAVORABLE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLOSED

LOW. THIS TREND OF PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LAST THRU

FRIDAY NIGHT

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER

THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES OF 13 TO 1

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I awoke to about an inch of snow. It must have been a lake effect band that brushed us before dropping down into the Catskills.

That just hammers my area. Not that I believe it, but it looks nice.

2" last night. I was in Oneonta around 8:30 and drove home through a squall that dropped 1.5". I could barely see the road, it was nice.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

1014 AM EST WED JAN 5 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS

AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE

EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS

AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS: CENTRAL CAYUGA...SOUTHERN ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN

MADISON...NORTHEAST CORTLAND...NORTHERN CHENANGO...AND SOUTHERN

OTSEGO COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS: MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING: SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MIDDAY THEN WEAKENING EARLY

THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST

THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW

SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE

INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE

CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY

CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT

[email protected].

&&

TAC

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Needless to say, Environment Canada no longer calling for snow on Thursday in Ottawa, just Friday now. I'm sure by this time tomorrow, it'll be something like "60% chance of flurries". Next week's storm isn't looking that promising for my region either.

I posted a comment in the thread about Bastardi now calling for a cold january. Unfortunately, my region, along with northern Vermont and Maine still look set to be above normal for the month. There was an article in the Ottawa Citizen today, saying how this winter is forecast to remain very dry for Ottawa.

http://www.ottawacit...3512/story.html

nice article .

only one word comes to mind when reading it:

BLOCK!

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In other words we can expect to miss out on the harsh cold and snow that those in other regional threads are getting excited about?

i wouldnt be ready to pack it in just yet on a backloaded winter, but IMO as i have mentioned, this week is important. snow has fallen already this week and it NEEDS to continue falling at the end of this week, however much it is. and then again next week.......... its like getting out of a slump.

a big EPO cold dump and a trough in the center of the continent could result in increased wintry weather in our region, cold and snow.

but its hard to bet against an overwhelming NAO and block at this point, its finds all kinds of sick way to screw the region the past couple seasons.....and no, im not betting against it until we see sure signs of getting out of this slump.

what could be even more likely and even more frustrating is areas just to ottawa's south, like southern ontario and NYS along I-90 beginning seeing more frequent wintry weather while ottawa remains high and dry- a very possible scenario worth considering.

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i wouldnt be ready to pack it in just yet on a backloaded winter, but IMO as i have mentioned, this week is important. snow has fallen already this week and it NEEDS to continue falling at the end of this week, however much it is. and then again next week.......... its like getting out of a slump.

a big EPO cold dump and a trough in the center of the continent could result in increased wintry weather in our region, cold and snow.

but its hard to bet against an overwhelming NAO and block at this point, its finds all kinds of sick way to screw the region the past couple seasons.....and no, im not betting against it until we see sure signs of getting out of this slump.

what could be even more likely and even more frustrating is areas just to ottawa's south, like southern ontario and NYS along I-90 beginning seeing more frequent wintry weather while ottawa remains high and dry- a very possible scenario worth considering.

very possible. Next week's storm (around the 13th-14th) seems to give southern Ontario snow while just missing us. It does look like very cold air could move into the region around the 16th, at least coording to the latest GFS.

Interestingly, January 1993 was fairly tame until around the 13th when a big storm hit. We can only hope for a backloaded winter like that one.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

125 PM EST WED JAN 5 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS

EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE

EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS

EVENING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS: SOUTHERN CAYUGA...SOUTHERN ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN

MADISON...NORTHERN CORTLAND...NORTHERN CHENANGO...AND

SOUTHWESTERN OTSEGO COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS: LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH BRIEF BURSTS OF

HEAVY SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES.

* TIMING: SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING

NORTH AROUND SUNSET.

* IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE

EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR

IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES

IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL

INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY

GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY

DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST

TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR

VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY

CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT

[email protected].

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