PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 with the PV allowing for some nice cold air to filter over the lakes coming up. Anyone know how much ice cover is on Lake Erie? I can't imagine its to much seeming how we just had a brief warm up with temps near 50. Hopefully the pattern gets a little more active and not just dry and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 with the PV allowing for some nice cold air to filter over the lakes coming up. Anyone know how much ice cover is on Lake Erie? I can't imagine its to much seeming how we just had a brief warm up with temps near 50. Hopefully the pattern gets a little more active and not just dry and cold L Erie is open for now, but some ice cover should start forming in the southern basin over the next week with temps generally staying below freezing. There was some ice in this area before the recent warm-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I have a moderate snow coming down....have picked up a few inches so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Looks like things are starting to come together. I think things look favorable over the next 2 weeks for our area, but I guess time will tell. Where exactly are you on the Tug? I assume northern Tug? Yes it is the northern Tug in the same general area as the Town of Diana and Barnes Corners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm glad to hear you are finally getting some snow. I dunno how far this stuff is going to carry into the Dacks ..in terms of Old Forge, etc. Yes it is the northern Tug in the same general area as the Town of Diana and Barnes Corners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY Mike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I've gotten 2-3" down here even! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If you get into the core of the arctic air it would probably be dry anyway. You have to figure though that the arctic air slides over into Eastern Ontario, Quebec and the northern part of NY/NE at the very least. That is some serious arctic air and it will want to spread out and sink south until it meets serious resistance. That may be the SE ridge. It could be conducive for overunning snow events for those in the lucky corridor. 1993-94 comes to mind somewhat...that was excellent for us here, but I don't know about further north. This is all "after" the late week system...... The winter that continues to fascinate me more than any other. Coldest January-February period in Toronto since 1920 and Ottawa's coldest January of the twentieth century. http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?Prov=XX&timeframe=2&StationID=4337&Day=1&Month=1&Year=1994&cmdB1=Go As you can see, Ottawa did get a fair amount of snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm glad to hear you are finally getting some snow. I dunno how far this stuff is going to carry into the Dacks ..in terms of Old Forge, etc. So am I , The band as shifted south of me. But, it's going to shift back tomorrow. I don't think the band made it as far inland as Old forge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I will take what ever i can get, still stuck at 16.5" on the season with light snow falling at the moment.. For tue clipper.. SINCE SNOW TO LIQUIDRATIOS WILL BE HIGH...PERHAPS EVEN 25-35:1 EXPECT THAT ONLY ONE FORECAST ZONE MAY HAVE ENOUGH SNOW TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THAT WOULD BE NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES TOTAL MAY OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL THUS SEPARATE THIS ZONE OUT IN HWO AND MENTION THAT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ELSEWHERE EXPECT GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY...1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AND ONLY AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES FROM THE EASTER CATSKILLS EAST TO THE BERKSHIRES http://forecast.weat...=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Bundle up next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Half inch last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 0.8" and was snowing up till around 7:30. I'm sending it back up your way Andy and Tornado girl. You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Gave my mother a call up in Parish, and she estimated around 12", and still snowing moderately. Pattern will be awesome for most of us, IF we can get the advertised PV dump (next week) into the N/C US. That's when we can get our Conn. valley/Hudson Valley/Appalachain storm tracks, with the inevitable "one two punch" when combined with LES afterward.....haven't had a sustained pattern like that in a LONG time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Gave my mother a call up in Parish, and she estimated around 12", and still snowing moderately. Pattern will be awesome for most of us, IF we can get the advertised PV dump (next week) into the N/C US. That's when we can get our Conn. valley/Hudson Valley/Appalachain storm tracks, with the inevitable "one two punch" when combined with LES afterward.....haven't had a sustained pattern like that in a LONG time.... Lake Erie freezes though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What's the skinny on weekend potential storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What's the skinny on weekend potential storm? What storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That answers that I guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The winter that continues to fascinate me more than any other. Coldest January-February period in Toronto since 1920 and Ottawa's coldest January of the twentieth century. http://www.climate.w...r=1994&cmdB1=Go As you can see, Ottawa did get a fair amount of snow as well. both 92-93 and 93-94 were excellent, backloaded winters. really the second half of both winters were epic. while 92-93 is my #1, 93-94 is one of my all time favorites also for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What's the skinny on weekend potential storm? long way to go before its resolved but a light to moderate event seems on tap for now for parts of the region. latest 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 What's the skinny on weekend potential storm? Very promising trends, especially for folks in the N/E of our region. Lots of details (as has been the case this winter in this pattern) to work out. Countless energy (pockets of vorticity) screaming/interacting about two lobes of h500 lows, with some minor interactions with small shortwaves in the main stream to the south. As pointed out by messanger in the NE thread, the norlun feature that has been present on many runs of many models, is always a potential "hint" that a further west solution might be in the cards. We very much would all be well served with a more rapid development of SLP just off the Delmarva area, with more SE'erly / E'erly orientation of the H500 countours. A solution like the 12z GFS displaced 150miles SW'ward would be epic around here. And if the SLP can navigate (afterward) into northern NE, LES could become a lot more in play (single band on more WNW flow as opposed to NNW flow with a further south stall/movement) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Gave my mother a call up in Parish, and she estimated around 12", and still snowing moderately. Pattern will be awesome for most of us, IF we can get the advertised PV dump (next week) into the N/C US. That's when we can get our Conn. valley/Hudson Valley/Appalachain storm tracks, with the inevitable "one two punch" when combined with LES afterward.....haven't had a sustained pattern like that in a LONG time.... positive news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 JMA FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 1-3 inches (3-8cm) across the border region of NY/ON/QC tonight into tomorrow. first W-E moving synoptic snow system to affect the region since january 2009. first clipper to impact region since december 2008. :arrowhead: more snow later this week likely, amounts unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Gave my mother a call up in Parish, and she estimated around 12", and still snowing moderately. Pattern will be awesome for most of us, IF we can get the advertised PV dump (next week) into the N/C US. That's when we can get our Conn. valley/Hudson Valley/Appalachain storm tracks, with the inevitable "one two punch" when combined with LES afterward.....haven't had a sustained pattern like that in a LONG time.... looks like the euro at 12z provided a possible opening....taking a storm northwards into the maritimes rather than dreaded SE of there. long way out though. hopefully things are about to pickup, starting with LE last night for you guys and the clipper up here tonight, and the general snowfall possible later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Potential snow tomorrow night, good potential for widespread at the end of the week... and not many folks posting. I can tell we're all getting tired of getting our hopes up, then having reality not match the model we'd like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think that sums up the feeling on the board pretty well. Travel is the only thing satisfying the snow craving for me at this point. I was lucky enough to be in Connecticut for the blizzard last week. Now this Friday evening I'll be driving back to Schenectady County from a business trip in Philadelphia... that should enhance my odds of encountering snow SOMEWHERE! :-/ Potential snow tomorrow night, good potential for widespread at the end of the week... and not many folks posting. I can tell we're all getting tired of getting our hopes up, then having reality not match the model we'd like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I was just leaving work tonight when I get a cell phone call.It's a good friend of mine and he says" Hey Tom I am having a lot of problems with my dump truck it starts runs from 5 minutes to 45 minuts and just shuts down" I said ok it's not a huge issue right now I will come over and look at it hopefully Wednesday and see whats up if you want drop it off at my house and I can at least have my tools so I can get it fixed.he says and I quote"I really need this truck fixed--I just heard (I have NO idea where/what/who radio,tv or word of mouth or what) we are going to be getting 3 days of snow starting Thursday and it's going to be big"-- This is news news to me,I am not complaining,I will have a ton of phone calls, but who would have made a forecast like that ESP this far out and to the public.I know this guy does not follow weather at all(forums/NWS ect). I hope it could be true,is it really that solid of a forecast yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 1-3 inches (3-8cm) across the border region of NY/ON/QC tonight into tomorrow. first W-E moving synoptic snow system to affect the region since january 2009. first clipper to impact region since december 2008. :arrowhead: more snow later this week likely, amounts unclear. You'll probably get more in Montreal than here in Ottawa. You guys had a pretty good December - 72cm I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saggy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I was just leaving work tonight when I get a cell phone call.It's a good friend of mine and he says" Hey Tom I am having a lot of problems with my dump truck it starts runs from 5 minutes to 45 minuts and just shuts down" I said ok it's not a huge issue right now I will come over and look at it hopefully Wednesday and see whats up if you want drop it off at my house and I can at least have my tools so I can get it fixed.he says and I quote"I really need this truck fixed--I just heard (I have NO idea where/what/who radio,tv or word of mouth or what) we are going to be getting 3 days of snow starting Thursday and it's going to be big"-- This is news news to me,I am not complaining,I will have a ton of phone calls, but who would have made a forecast like that ESP this far out and to the public.I know this guy does not follow weather at all(forums/NWS ect). I hope it could be true,is it really that solid of a forecast yet? This Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This Thursday? Yes. I know it's still being debated(the storm /track/ect.) the accumulation I would think would be one of the last things being mentioned. I am going to try to find out where he heard this,as I am still suprised. I have not been around very much at all last few days,and I wont believe it until I start hearing from the local pros here. Although I will say this even if it does miss,never happen whatever,I am not telling anyone until I get the repairs done..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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