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Upstate NY/North Country Winter Thread II

LakeEffectKing

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WNYLakeEffect

WNYLakeEffect

Posted
Posted

From BUF's AFD:

THIS WILL BE THE LAST DISCUSSION OF MY CAREER. AFTER 40 YEARS I

WILL BE RETIRING FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. IT HAS BEEN MY

FORTUNE AND PLEASURE TO FORECAST WEATHER ALONG SIDE MY LAKE EFFECT

EXPERT COLLEAGUES IN WHAT MIGHT BE CONSIDERED ONE OF THE TOUGHEST

FORECAST AREAS OF THE WORLD. I WILL BEGIN TO ENJOY LAKE EFFECT SNOW

ONCE AGAIN WITHOUT THE FEAR OF BEING WRONG ANYMORE...AND TRUST ME

THAT HAS HAPPENED PLENTY OF TIMES IN 40 YEARS. WHAT A HUMBLING

SCIENCE!! DAVE SAGE

I liked his AFD's.

Anyway, we've made it up to 39 this afternoon, with a low of 10 this morning. Snowpack should mostly survive, but barely and open places might lose it (drifting...). There's a solid 50" of snow and inch of rain in it.

December will finish with 50.8" of snow. That makes three winters with a 50" month (Jan '09 had 60" and Jan '10 52.5" iirc).

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

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Thanks for that nice recollection Andy. I wondered what whole thing between him and the NWS over snow measurements was about....now we know the inside story. :)

Its a pleasure to share. One of many "inside" stories. He was a great guy to compete against in a friendly personal way. On occasion we would get together for lunch and have a blast. Sometimes our pranks would be a joint effort against our own colleagues who worked the night shift.

I actually thought the same thing the first time I came up here well over a decade ago now, haha. Now it seems to be the opposite...or ALB is just running into lots of bad luck. Looks like they officially recorded a little over 8" for the coastal blizzard...most other areas from ALB on east/south had 10"+. I managed a hair over 6" out here, which I'll gladly take.

This also reminds me of an on-air met in the Albany market...I think he was on FOX, where on one broadcast he used the '93 Superstorm as ALB's largest storm on record as he "did not believe" the measurement from March of 1888. Kind of surprising in that if anything, I would thing the way of measuring back then would lend to underreporting snowfall amounts...in any case, he's no longer in the area.

I have seen photographs from around ALB after the Blizzard of '88 and it looked pretty legitimate to me.

I think a lot may have to deal with how we now are much more meticulous in measuring snow every 6 hours vs. in past years. I could be wrong but I think the every 6 method wasn't really enforced until AFTER the Superstorm of '93.

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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Woke up this morning to green grass - last night's temps held in the 40's and wiped out my last inch of snowcover. Hate to admit it, but the mild temps and sun yesterday felt nice after the long stretch of cold weather.

December in BUF turned out to be very cold and dry - temps will come in about 4 deg below normal and precip over an inch below normal. The last several runs of the GFS look to continue this trend well into January after the warm-up ends this weekend - return to intense blocking, cool/cold temps, and no synoptic systems.

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Logan11

Logan11

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They are riding here also and it is marginal at best. The woods are ok with 8"+, but the fields were blown nearly clear in places. I dunno if that damages their skis at all to ride across stretches of field with little or no snow. After this little thaw it will be more depleted so probably forget any snowmobiling next week, despite the return of cold.

I am up in Old Forge for dinner and a movie, about 4-5 inches on the ground and snowmobiles are out lmao.

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Andyace

Andyace

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It can ruin the ski's, they have runners but they wear away when they hit dirt and stones. The track has plastic slide rails that the tracks spins over that needs snow to lubricate them or they wear out quick. They are all consumable parts but with these conditions they will wear out fast and can cause damage.

They are riding here also and it is marginal at best. The woods are ok with 8"+, but the fields were blown nearly clear in places. I dunno if that damages their skis at all to ride across stretches of field with little or no snow. After this little thaw it will be more depleted so probably forget any snowmobiling next week, despite the return of cold.

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winter_rules

winter_rules

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Ya I can hear the grinding just thinking about it. I wonder if this is going to be the year without?

I wouldn't be too worried yet. Two years ago we didn't get a good ride in until ~Jan 15th due to lack of snow, but then we rode straight through March. That was the year where the Snirt Run should have been called a Snow Run....sleds were still riding in mid-April on the Tug. Every year is different, but December is way too early to be worried - trails just opened 2-3 weeks ago and we still have a solid 12 weeks of "typical" available riding time.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

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im liking the fact that some clippers are showing up for the first time in what seems like an eternity......2008?

if clippers show up, then its more likely that we are entering a new regime i feel, with a better positioned PV and less confluence/blocking.

hopefully those keep showing up and trends continue.

first clipper on on tap tues/wed as per euro/GEM.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

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im liking the fact that some clippers are showing up for the first time in what seems like an eternity......2008?

if clippers show up, then its more likely that we are entering a new regime i feel, with a better positioned PV and less confluence/blocking.

hopefully those keep showing up and trends continue.

first clipper on on tap tues/wed as per euro/GEM.

The problem is, is that these clippers are originating (partially) from a very elongated PV that is going to be situated to the north of us (or near there), with blocking continuing. We will not get a big EC storm to cut up into ENY/SNE with that in place.....this pattern sucks for folks looking for such (me included).....LES aside (and it will become more marginal as we have rotting cold airmasses within the PV and cooling Great Lakes) we need some progressiveness to the pattern.....SOME hints in a couple weeks, but I'm not to thrilled with the general setup beforehand (again for us anyway).

Happy New Year to all!! Be safe, and let 2011 be better than this past....(not just from a snowfall perspective!! ;) )

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

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The problem is, is that these clippers are originating (partially) from a very elongated PV that is going to be situated to the north of us (or near there), with blocking continuing. We will not get a big EC storm to cut up into ENY/SNE with that in place.....this pattern sucks for folks looking for such (me included).....LES aside (and it will become more marginal as we have rotting cold airmasses within the PV and cooling Great Lakes) we need some progressiveness to the pattern.....SOME hints in a couple weeks, but I'm not to thrilled with the general setup beforehand (again for us anyway).

Happy New Year to all!! Be safe, and let 2011 be better than this past....(not just from a snowfall perspective!! ;) )

well yeah, for those looking for an EC threat, a clipper isnt it. :lol:

but it looks like we may enter a Miller B regime with some blocking....not the best.....but at least there will be SOME moisture from W-E moving systems across the area.

i mean we are talking first step here. we havent even had any freakin mositure to speak of moving W-E into proper cold air in what, oh about 2 years or something :axe:

once we can prove that we are capable of supporting traditional cold sector synoptic moisture in the area, without having it be nuked....then ill worry about a bigger storm.

right now, we cant even get a heavy flurry thats isnt LES related, lol.

this is a long long LONG road back to synoptic respectability.....baby steps.

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FEFD17

FEFD17

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Starting to see signs of a potential storm(s) affecting the northeast in the D7-9 timeframe, details of course still unknown

I see this has been being talked about in the Weather Focasting and Discussion forums. I only hope it is " our " turn this time. I am sure until it's less than 36 or so hours out, there will probably not be a lot of interest,but what heartbreaking fun to watch!!

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Avid6eek

Avid6eek

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After a high temp of 41.2F temps are falling rapidly down in the valley. Currently sitting at 34.5F. We'll probably spend a total of 8 hours today above freezing. The sun did some damage to the snowpack as I'm sitting at just under 4". While we are about to dip below freezing a few miles to my west across some of the higher elevations of Schenectady county they are still above 50F. Across western NY some of the higher terrain is still above 60F. There won't be much snow left across the state come Monday. That's depressing.

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Logan11

Logan11

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I don't expect much from the first clipper, but as Andy said ...if we get the blocking to retrograde enough next weekend maybe we can conjure up a storm that isn't so far east.

The problem is, is that these clippers are originating (partially) from a very elongated PV that is going to be situated to the north of us (or near there), with blocking continuing. We will not get a big EC storm to cut up into ENY/SNE with that in place.....this pattern sucks for folks looking for such (me included).....LES aside (and it will become more marginal as we have rotting cold airmasses within the PV and cooling Great Lakes) we need some progressiveness to the pattern.....SOME hints in a couple weeks, but I'm not to thrilled with the general setup beforehand (again for us anyway).

Happy New Year to all!! Be safe, and let 2011 be better than this past....(not just from a snowfall perspective!! ;) )

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Logan11

Logan11

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35.4F here. Sometimes with these inversion situations the obs on mesowest in upper Duanesburg can be quite a bit milder than me even though they are only like 350 feet higher. It's one of those nights I guess.

After a high temp of 41.2F temps are falling rapidly down in the valley. Currently sitting at 34.5F. We'll probably spend a total of 8 hours today above freezing. The sun did some damage to the snowpack as I'm sitting at just under 4". While we are about to dip below freezing a few miles to my west across some of the higher elevations of Schenectady county they are still above 50F. Across western NY some of the higher terrain is still above 60F. There won't be much snow left across the state come Monday. That's depressing.

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